The coronavirus pandemic and the global oil economy
Chapter 5 of our book Mathematical Geoenergy describes a model of the production of oil based on discoveries followed by a sequence of lags relating to decisions made and physical constraints governing the flow of that oil. As it turns out, this so-named Oil Shock Model is mathematically similar to the compartmental models used to model contagion growth in epidemiology, pharmaceutical/drug deliver systems, and other applications as demonstrated in Appendix E of the book.
One aspect of the 2020 pandemic is that everyone with any math acumen is becoming aware of contagion models such as the SIR compartmental model, where S I R stands for Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered individuals. The Infectious part of the time progression within a population resembles a bell curve that peaks at a particular point indicating maximum contagiousness. The hope is that this either peaks quickly or that it doesn’t peak at too high a level.
In the modeling of oil depletion the equivalent S I R compartmental model corresponds to the stages of Sequestered (in the ground), Identified (i.e. discovered), and Recovered (i.e. extracted). So the compartmental models of oil production and contagion growth (as it plays out during a pandemic) show intuitive parallels :
- Discovery of an oil reservoir is analogous to the start of infection — the leading indicator.
- Extraction from that reservoir to depletion is analogous to death — the lagging indicator.
- Keeping oil in the ground is the equivalent of recovering from the infection.
This has been progressing over the course of decades, with the global peak of the discovered oil occurring by the end of the 1960’s and on a downhill trajectory since then — a slow but relentless extraction drawdown with the majority of the citizenry barely being aware of this trend. The derivative of the recovery phase — the extraction — is shown below and is either at peak or near it.
This slow progression of global oil production is nowhere near as sudden as what we’re going through now as the full S I R coronavirus cycle completes in a matter of months. And this virus cycle may recur again, whereas the S I R version for oil will not — as oil does not regenerate.
Since the connection between the compartmental model of the oil shock model and the pandemic compartmental model is so striking, there are other ways to analogize between the two. Quarantining people from accessing the oil during the oil embargo of the 1970’s (see the figure above for the notch right before 1980) produces the same effect as quarantining during an epidemic (see the notch in the figure below).
When the quarantining policies are relaxed, the contagion will resume — the pattern is spike, suppress, resume. From our book, in the figure below, one can see how the “quarantining=embargo” suppression flattened the production curve below what it was likely trending toward, thus temporarily delaying the time to full depletion.
The analogy is that people are the contagion and will continue to extract oil until the equivalent herd immunity is reached — that is until when the finite oil resources are exhausted. Only an embargo shock prevented the consumption from proceeding too quickly, without which the supply would deplete much sooner.
Another analogy is in how dispersion works. When discovering oil, not every geographic location is exploited at the same time, leading to a spread in how quickly the reserves are exhausted. This is a stochastic element to the compartmental model, the figure below taken from Chapter 7 with the stochastic version of the logistic S-curve discussed recently at the Azimuth Project forum.
Similarly, with a global contagion not every spatially-separated population is infected at the same time, leading to an analogous dispersive effect in infected populations as in the figure below.
As stated earlier, the problem with contagions is that the S I R process can potentially repeat, as the populations are renewable. This recurrence is not possible with crude oil, where the supply is finite & non-renewable. While this is strictly true, the finiteness can be masked if there are hidden or secondary pockets of reserves, such as with the shale oil reserves of the Permian and Bakken formations. This can be seen in the USA production data shown below, where a spike recovery in production occurred starting in 2010 (the more costly fracking of oil partly financed by government stimulation after the 2008-2009 market crash).
This is weakly analogous to a reemergence of a contagion. However, this only provides a temporary reprieve to global oil depletion as the shale oil may already proving to be near peak.
What does the global economy look forward to? Even when we eventually contain the pandemic, the inexorable decline of oil will continue. The pandemic itself will provide a transient suppressive shock to global oil production — via demand destruction of production this only temporarily delays the inevitability of continued oil depletion.
The book describes how to model this compartmental process in depth in Chapter 3 through 9.
Even though the idea of compartmental modeling is well-known in epidemiology, one can find little evidence as to its application to fossil fuel depletion. Google Scholar citations for “compartmental model” & “oil depletion”
- https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=”compartmental+model”+”oil+depletion”
- https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=”compartmental+model”+”peak+oil”
- https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=”compartmental+model”+”oil+reserves”
The only hit shown refers to our work, and by expanding the keyword search, Google Scholar returns this:
Herrero, C., García-Olivares, A. and Pelegrí, J.L., 2014. Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle. Climatic change, 122(1-2), pp.283-298.
The way that Herroro et al apply a compartmental model is to model the compartments as oil, atmospheric CO2 from combustion of the oil, and sequestering of that CO2 in the ocean. We also model this compartmental flow in Chap 9.
As of April 1, there are many burgeoning collective efforts on optimizing pandemic contagion S I R models, as listed here (and I contributed a version of Hubbert Linearization for pandemic modeling on Medium.com). Perhaps eventually, the same level of attention will be paid to fossil fuel depletion compartmental models such as the oil shock model, as the impact on society is comparable.
The 2008 GFC temporarily suppressed demand, and thus production, pushing peak back a couple of years. There’s no reason to think Covid-19 won’t have a similar effect only greater, crushing demand temporarily. The Fed is authorized by Congress to deliver 4 Trillion in loans to companies. Shale companies could easily end up in BETTER SHAPE due to pandemic if the Fed relieves them of their high yield debt in exchange for gov’t backed low yield bonds. Watcher has been beating the drum but many have failed to hear the rhythm. There will be no artificial peak. Only pure geological peak is possible. Dennis’ predictions of 2023-2025 peak are looking better by the day.
I love this comment from Twitter. The guy is referring to American oil. IMO this applies to Mike and Shallow but the shale companies…… really??
https://twitter.com/Samir_Madani/status/1245944056401793024?s=20
I do not follow the analogy.
Surely the blue is total population equivalent to OIIP.
The green is infected population equivalent to daily production.
The red is everyone who has had the virus dead or alive, equivalent to total production.
Mitigation simply slows down the spread or consumption, but as with oil the virus is so compelling that it eventually infects everyone.
The virus is spreading untested through Africa, India and South America, mitigation is not possible due to extreme poverty which forces people to work in Order to eat this evening.
Mitigation is a fantasy for the rich, for the benefit of the rich. The desperately poor who die in their millions from parasitic water, starvation, zero health care have no choice but to burn coal and wood to cook. Global warming is a luxury concern for people with good health care and full bellies.
Wayne, It’s primarily a mathematical analogy. The same formulation of data flow via a directed graph such as with the blue-green-red state diagram shown above is applied to oil production as contagion growth. Obviously the details differ, especially in regards to growth.
Daily production of oil would be the time derivative of the red curve. It just requires a logical thought process to determine the state of an oil molecule is in during the process, and there may be even more states than that shown above, just as there can be more actual states in a contagion model (for example, look up the SEIR & MSEIR models https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_model, which has 1 and 2 more states respectively ).
Thanks Paul
I like the analogy. What jumps out at me is that Covid 19 and oil have one thing in common. They are so irresistible that their impact will effect everyone. No matter what delaying tactics are used the virus will eventually infect everyone.
Oil is so useful, has so much latent energy that there will always be someone who wants to use it until it is all gone.
Wayne,
The green curve would be annual discoveries of oil (with reserve growth backdated to date of original discovery), which peaked around 1962/1963. There is a significant lag between peak discovery and peak output (about 60 years). Also note that output is the slope (first derivative or dR/dt) of the R curve which is cumulative output. The peak in output is the steepest part of the cumulative output curve.
Also there is a considerable lag between discovery and the development of oil reserves to a producing state, sometimes called PDP (or proved developed producing) reserves. In the chart below I show for conventional oil resources only (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) discoveries per year, new PDP reserves per year added to already producing PDP reserves, and conventional oil output, this is for a recent “oil shock model” that guesses at the covid19 oil shock and subsequent recovery (which is highly speculative).
Chart below includes the fallow and build stages of the Oil Shock Model, where fallow resources are those that been discovered, but no definite decision on whether to develop those resources has been made, and the build stage is where resources are in the process of being developed, the “new producing reserves” in my chart above, Paul sometimes calls the maturation stage where a field is ramping up to full output, the PDP reserves are extracted at some average annual rate in the extraction phase and the “produced” oil has in effect been extracted. Historically from 1960 to 2019 the average annual extraction rate for conventional PDP reserves has varied from 8.3% in 1960 to 12.1% in 1973 and generally decreased from 11.7% in 1979 to 5.46% in 2019.
Chart below compares a theoretical scenario where conventional oil extraction rate from 1980 to 2090 remains at the 1970-1979 average of 11.4845%, peak for conventional oil is in 2006 at 86.8 Mb/d for the “theoretical oil scenario”. The actual output and my proposed future scenario (extraction rate 5.35% from 2024 to 2090) is shown for comparison.
Dennis
I hope you are correct, but there is a real possibility that the virus will smash the economic and political structure of countries like India and most African and South American countries.
The fall out could mire the world in a permanent state of fear and isolationism
Wayne,
The south may get some help from the North, hopefully they will prepare better than we have done.
Dennis
The healthcare systems in India, Africa and South America are appalling. Most people cannot get basic care in ordinary times. This virus will spread though these countries rapidly as they cannot afford to lock down and testing is almost non existent.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/04/medics-in-brazil-fear-official-coronavirus-tally-ignores-a-mountain-of-deaths
Little video of where 900 million people live. How do you social distance in places like this?
https://www.habitatforhumanity.org.uk/blog/2017/12/the-worlds-largest-slums-dharavi-kibera-khayelitsha-neza/
Wayne,
Parts of Africa have dealt with Ebola recently and might be fairly well prepared as a result. India locked down fairly early which may help, if nations in the Southern hemisphere learn from the mistakes made in the North and act early, there might be less rapid spread of the virus. It is up to the government of those nations to do better than Europe and the US, they should use Taiwan or South Korea as their models for a proper response.
Dennis
All the equipment and many of the doctors who fought against Ebola came from Europe and other western countries. Western countries have 3/4 doctors per 1,000 persons, in Africa it is 1 for 10/14 thousand.
Western countries are here now being overwhelmed, are you not keeping up with the news? New York is like Spain and Italy, London is on the brink.
After Easter it will be clear most of the third world countries have lost the chance of containment, if they had it at all.
Since Dennis is posting analyses of the news I would rather think he is keeping up with the news.
NAOM
Wayne,
Perhaps it will spread in the Southern hemisphere in a similar way as the northern hemisphere. Perhaps there are fewer travellers to the southern hemisphere and perhaps they will force travellers to quarantine. Eventually the Northern hemisphere will gain control of the situation and they can send help to Africa and South America.
All are possible scenarios, as to what will happen, I have no idea, nor do you.
Perhaps??? It is already there with devastating consequences.
Corpses Lie For Days As Ecuador Struggles To Keep Up With COVID-19 Deaths
Ecuador is one of the smallest countries in South America but it is dealing with one of the region’s worst outbreaks of COVID-19, with more than 3,100 identified infections and 120 deaths.
The epicenter of the country’s outbreak is the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, where bodies are lying in the streets.
Guayaquil has registered about half of all Ecuador’s coronavirus cases and patients have overwhelmed the city’s hospitals. In addition, a nationwide curfew and bureaucratic red tape have hindered the work of undertakers.
Hot and humid Guayaquil sits right on the equator and right on the ocean. So scratch the hope that the coming hot and humid summer will bring some relief.
this link in Spanish confirms the 1350 number:
https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/jorge-wated-ataudes-fallecimientos-covid19.html
Ron,
Using data from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ecuador/
Chart below, the death rate in Ecuador has been a bit higher than the World average, but for most of South America, the death rate has been low so far.
Dennis, I googled it. Looked at the actual pictures from Guayaquil. Bodies were everywhere. Many just lying in the streets, uncovered.
What Paul posted:
Also officially, the national police in Guayaquil report collecting 1,350 corpses from private homes & the street. ?
Dennis, if the rest of South America is lying about the death total as much as Ecuador, then this disaster is far worse than anyone can imagine.
@Ron
Much of the world is lying about the infection and death rate. Russia started by reporting lots of pneumonia deaths rather than coronavirus. The USA has withheld testing from many who have all the symptoms of the virus and people have died without testing. The infection rate and death count is far higher, worldwide, than is being acknowledged.
NAOM
Ron,
Yes there can be poor data. If none of the data is good, then we just don’t know. Part of the problem is a lack of testing and when the system gets overwhelmed there is no time to determine cause of death.
when the system gets overwhelmed there is no time to determine cause of death.
Of course Dennis. I am sure the vast majority of the 1,350 the police picked up from the street, homes, and other places died from other natural causes. Most of them likely had a heart attack. /sarc
Ron,
I was agreeing with you and offering an explanation for why the confirmed covid 19 numbers may have been different.
I guess some things need to be spelled out very clearly so they are not misunderstood. 🙂
Sorry Dennis, but your meaning was not all that clear.
Anyway, the Ecuadorian authorities know full well the cause of death. People just don’t start dropping like flies from natural causes. They, like Trump, just want to keep their numbers low.
The health care in South America has some very good facilities, it would be wrong to say it is all appalling. The problem is that it is not evenly distributed so the more rural you are the worse it gets.
NAOM
notanoilman,
True also in the US and probably in most places.
Dennis
This article is not behind paywall, I think
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/denial-brutal-lockdown-africas-response-rich-mans-disease-has/
You have to imagine that if you do not go to work today, you and your family do not eat today.
At the same time bastard police are beating you and even shooting people.
The rich old elite, are prepared to starve as many people on the breadline as needed to eradicate the virus and the masses will start killing back
It doesn’t look good for Africa.
Almost all of the dead will be among the “masses”.
“Global warming is a luxury concern for people with good health care and full bellies.”
Sounds familiar.
People said the same thing about raw sewage dumped into the water supply
But taking care of the problem helps all, perhaps the poor most of all.
People said the same thing about small pox,
But taking care of the problem helps all, perhaps the poor most of all….
Hickory
Sure it does but the problem is not being fixed because today the rich can isolate themselves from the poor.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/drinking-water
The only reason we are having lockdowns is because this virus can kill the rich also. The poor die in their millions every year from things that we can stop.
Wayne, I have much in agreement with you about the rich/poor issues.
Wondering, are you of the mind that it would have been a better choice to let the virus role along without policy measures that would hinder the economy?
I am interested in peoples thinking on this. It is a great quandary. Millions of losers with either choice- to fight it, or let it roll.
The death of 10% of the population would be very bad for economic activity.
That’s what you get when you do nothing.
Depends whose population it is I suppose.
Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq: “We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?”
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.”
—60 Minutes (5/12/96)
Maybe there’s nothing morally wrong with a little “Boomer Remover”? Not my opinion, but if killing folks for the economy is your thing; well it’s kinda like Russian Roulette. Everyone’s Machiavellian, until they get kicked in the teeth. Or so I’ve noticed.
I agree about sanctions on Iraq: they were an extraordinary tragedy. Another hidden cost of our entanglement with the M.E., which is all about protecting oil consumers.
Oil is very, very costly.
Hickory
The United States spends in the region of $900 billion on improving it’s ability to kill people.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-military-budget-components-challenges-growth-3306320
While millions of working Americans cannot afford decent healthcare. Who does this benefit other than the rich and powerful.
Cut that in half and spend the $400 billion on health care. That would reestablish the 400,000 hospital beds cut in the last 40 years 50,000 of those would be ICU beds. Early intervention would be possible in all cases.
One question I have not heard a BBC journalist ask our government is why so little funding was put into a SARS vaccine.
They are neglecting a big piece of the picture here.
Research into a vaccine for MERS and SARS which were stopped would never have been stopped, but state funded. By now a vaccine for SARS and MERS would have meant a COVID 19 vaccine would have been within easy reach as they are very similar.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
Absolutely. The US should dramatically increase public medical research and development. Instead, of course, this administration has been trying to dramatically cut public health and R&D funding.
And the US has been dramatically increasing military spending in the last 20 years. The Clinton administration succeeded in cutting military spending, but the Bush administration used 9/11 to increase military spending dramatically. The following quote from your reference is an underestimate, but it’s illustrative:
“ Ironically, the DoD base budget does not include the cost of wars. That falls under Overseas Contingency Operations.5 It’s budgeted at $69 billion for DoD. Since 2001, the OCO budget has spent $2 trillion to pay for the War on Terror.”
And, of course, that would not have happened without our dependence on oil…
Suppression or delay of infections benefits the poor more than the wealthy. The wealthy have better diets and are generally healthier (so they’ll survive infection far better), and they can avoid infection more easily. Suppression of infection can prevent deaths directly; delay of infections greatly increases the chances of preventing illness with vaccine or treatments not now available; reduction of the number of cases at any one time dramatically reduces mortality: we’re seeing 10% death rates in some places, where it could be less than 2% if healthcare were not overwhelmed.
Mitigation of global warming benefits the poor far more than the wealthy. The wealthy can just pick up and move from flooded ocean front property; the wealthy don’t work in low lying farm areas. The wealthy can outbid the poor, if food becomes more expensive.
Don’t be fooled by right wing/fossil fuel propaganda. The idea that infection prevention, or global warming prevention are a “fantasy for the rich” is a right wing meme, intended to confuse working people into supporting policies that hurt them.
Nick
The 2.3 million children who died of preventable diseases last year could not give a ***** about your global warming concerns.
https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/more-two-million-children-continue-die-each-year-vaccine-preventable-diseases
The 3.4 million people who died from waterborne diseases probably do not either.
https://businessconnectworld.com/2018/02/15/critical-facts-waterborne-diseases-us/
But 5,000 Americans die or 12,000 Italians die and the whole world stops.
I hope you see the totally illogical reaction to one lots of deaths and another
This is a false dichotomy. We can take care of water quality AND global warming.
I have the impression that you think that planning for the effects of peak oil would be a good idea. I’d think that you would want to pay attention to the public health experts, who tell us that if we do nothing we could lose 10% of the population.
I suspect we’ll be losing a lot more than that once the peak oil and climate change induced famine gets underway.
That certainly says we should be kicking the oil habit ASAP.
We don’t need oil in the long run – peak oil is only a problem if we don’t plan for it, and we still have time to do so. The same was true for climate change – now of course we’re very, very late in the game.
Hi Wayne, quite right. In their book Manufacturing Consent, Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky distinguished between two kinds of victims: the worthy victims and the unworthy victims. The “worthy victims” are the victims of U.S. enemies, such as Bashar al-Assad. The “unworthy victims” are those of the U.S. and its client states, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. I’d suggest wealthy and poor plays into the same dichotomy. As well, it’s worth noting that when media agencies refer to US allies they call them governments, like the Egyptian government for example. But when the media agencies refer to US opponents they call them regimes, like the Syrian regime for example.
Global warming is a luxury concern for people with good health care and full bellies.
This is just another way of saying “only liberal elites care, Real Americans don’t”. It’s a thinly disguised ad hominem attack.
However, it is based on a false premise. Changing weather patterns are definitely a concern to subsistence farmers in Africa and South Asia.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1
https://www.climatecentre.org/news/1066/un-sahel-region-one-of-the-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change
The Republican war on reality goes on.
what i am saying is that the rich elites have the most to lose from covid 19 and global warming, hence the shut down of almost every single job and millions now cannot feed themselves.
A person who cannot feed his family and sees death from malaria and waterborne diseases killing people on a weekly basis has no time or energy to think about global warming and covid is simply just another killer disease.
Step back a moment Wayne and lets consider the following. We will compare two phenomena-
This Covid-19 wave a very small short wave event, maybe 1 ft tall and lasting a year or two. One way or another it will run its course. Some places recognized the threat early and clamped down on citizen movement and took strong measures. Taiwan for example. Others choose a harder path and kept the party going as if there was no problem. Spain for example.
Deaths per million people in Taiwan is 0.2 and in Spain is 251, as of today. The gap will widen even further over the next month.
Recognize and deal, or ignore.
Now think of another wave. A wave not just 1 ft tall, but 100 feet tall. And lasting a hundred years, not just one or two. And this wave has been building slowly for 30-40 years, and it still very small, but building to the point where anyone can look at the data and see it. I say 100 feet tall because the potential effects are huge. And like the virus, if you wait until the ill-effects are hitting you in the head like a brick, you will have failed like Spain. Rather, much more severely than Spain.
Of course, I am referring to global warming. The risk, or big probability, is that we will have problems like drought, fire, flooding, food insecurity, failed states and mass migration as a result of global warming growing like a wave, slow at first and building big. You can’t wait until the effects are strikingly obvious to work hard on it.
Unless you prefer to do things the very very hard way.
Taiwan will quarantine you if are deemed infected or at risk- and will bring you food and pay you to stay in the home. And fine you big if you break it. Carrot and Stick. Masks. They won.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/19/taiwan-shows-its-mettle-in-coronavirus-crisis-while-the-who-is-mia/
Most excellent comparison sir!
That needs to go viral. May I quote you in full elsewhere?
Certainly Adam.
And…it’s not true that rich elites have the most to lose from CV 19 and global warming. The rich are much healthier to start with, and are far more able to isolate themselves and adapt to the threats. It’s the poor who will suffer. They have to keep working at job sites, and suffer infection. They can’t move when sea levels rise.
It’s true that poverty can make it difficult to care about the future. But the future will still arrive.
But by definition those with the most money have the “most” to lose.
Being rich does you no good if the society that provides you with everything that money can buy crumbles.
If I were rich, I would be a “socialist”. It would be in my interest.
Paul Isaacs
The wealthy have more money to lose. But, as I hope you know, money really isn’t everything. Financial security is a great thing, but above a certain amount,which is lower than you’d think (about $5k per capita, around the world) there’s a pretty small correlation between income and happiness.
And that wasn’t really the original assertion. The original proposition, repeated above by Wayne but created elsewhere, was that preventing Covid 19, or global warming, benefited the rich more than the poor. This is completely untrue. It’s a climate denier talking point, invented to confuse people and obscure the truth, which is that public health (both infection control and climate change prevention) is far more important to working and poor people, because they have far less ability to protect themselves from the disastrous effects of these problems.
There is an implied assertion here that investing in COVID 19 infection control and climate change prevention have a low ROI. This is highly unrealistic. Both pay for themselves incredibly well, and extremely quickly.
Finally, as you suggest, good government is good for the wealthy, too. It’s good for everyone. It’s sad that people like the Koch’s and Rupert Murdoch are trying to convince everyone otherwise, due to their own sociopathic delusions.
Nick,
” But, as I hope you know, money really isn’t everything.”
The evidence that I see seems to suggest that, when it comes to the rich, quite commonly the continuous acquisition of more money is everything.
Paul Isaacs
Yep.
It turns out they’re confused about what’s good for them (I’ve know enough very wealthy people to know that their money does not bring wisdom – far, far from it). That’s a central problem with our culture: we don’t recognize that “stuff” is good *only* for what stuff is good for: keeping the rain out, staving off hunger, moving you from place to place, etc. It doesn’t solve your emotional or relationship problems, it doesn’t give meaning to life, it doesn’t make work satisfying, etc.
Are you familiar with Maslow’s hierarchy?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs
Another central problem is that our “economy” has been modeled since its inception as an open loop system with no feedbacks.
The feedbacks were always there but the loop gains were small enough for economics to declare them “externalities”.
They can no longer be so considered.
The economy is the transactional infrastructure of a society. It is a required element of any moderately complex society.
However, beyond a certain size that economy unavoidably becomes closed loop and must model itself accordingly to have any chance of being stable.
I currently see no evidence, beyond the fringes, of economists understanding that an economy is the same as an audio system – turn up the gain too much and it goes out of control.
The economy can not remain an ever growing system. Covid-19, and earlier pandemics, are signalling that human population numbers on a finite planet are a gain control knob on a closed loop system.
The infrastructure of the economy must change to incorporate feedbacks and to set their parameters so the society can remain stable.
See PID loop.
Paul Isaacs
Thank you Paul. A clear and informative post.
What is not clear is how the world economy will react to this pandemic. I have my doubts that the economy will ever look the way it did pre COVID 19 again.
Here is a link to some simulations of epidemics and how varying parameters affect outcomes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=37&v=gxAaO2rsdIs&feature=emb_logo.
Thanks
Other work by Paul has been published under his Webhubbletelescope pseudonym.
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/
http://contextearth.com/
https://geoenergymath.com/
He also posts on Twitter under @WHUT
He also frequently contributed at The Oil Drum and the Oil Shock Model was nicely summarized by Sam Foucher at post linked below
http://theoildrum.com/node/2376
Also Pukite is often mispronounced, for hockey fans who remember the former Chicago Blackhawk player Stan Makita, Paul has suggested Pukite more or less rhymes with Makita.
For non-Petroleum comments this week we will try to keep them in this thread. Thanks.
Interesting University of Washington post
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/03/31/republican-governors-delayed-key-covid-19-social-distancing-measures/
Excerpt:
“We wanted to understand why some American states have been slow to introduce social distancing measures,” said lead author Christopher Adolph, an associate professor of political science at the UW. “You might expect states to delay if they have fewer confirmed cases — though even that would arguably be a mistake — but we were worried by the appearance of a partisan pattern in responses, both at the state level and in public opinion.”
So Adolph and his team analyzed the measures that states enacted with other data, such as the number of COVID-19 cases in each state, how neighboring states were responding, each governor’s political party and each state’s voter turnout for Trump in 2016.
The team found that partisanship – especially when a state has a Republican governor, as well as the share of the statewide vote for Trump — led to delays in enacting social distancing. That “combined partisan effect” coincided with a delay of 2.7 days, the team found. Partisanship had a greater effect than other variables, including the number of confirmed cases in each state, researchers said. The number of confirmed cases, for example, influenced state action by less than half a day.
UW projections (updated daily)
https://covid19.healthdata.org/
Peak US deaths per day between 1460 and 4400 in 7 to 18 days, median estimate is in 13 days at 2644.
The pink/red shaded area in the chart below is the 95% confidence interval, chart comes from link above.
Well, I’ll try to be gentle about it.
The Federal government failed miserably to see the problem and react to it, in a timely manner.
This will be catalogued thoroughly by others I am sure, and we will find that major public health protective measures were either delayed by 2-4 weeks even when they were obvious, or simply still not taken.
This will go down as the biggest national domestic policy failure in well over a hundred years.
And despite his recent claim that he ‘takes no responsibility’ for these policy failures, and that he has a ‘hunch this won’t amount to much’, once again his instincts and aptitude are exposed as very poor for an adult. He will do whatever he can to dodge responsibility, and twist the truth. That is his mode of operation. Are you still gullible?
“Leadership consists of nothing but taking responsibility for everything that goes wrong and giving your subordinates credit for everything that goes well.” ― Dwight D. Eisenhower
Dennis, The 2.7 day delay could also be contrasted to other countries. I have a suspicion that the difference between the South Korea response delay and the blue-state response delay is much greater than the difference between blue-state and red-state delay. That’s probably why the USA has spun up so quickly.
2.7 day may be a reasonable average interstate estimate, but the national level response failure is likely closer to 2.7 weeks (delay from a slow response stance), or greater.
The USA quick overall growth trajectory in cases is more a reflection of the delayed national policy than the varying policies of individual states.
So just to confirm, this 2.7 weeks is what the difference in delay is?
If that’s the case then the blue state vs red state response is 2.7 weeks vs 3 weeks longer compared to a place like South Korea.
So the fundamental issue is whether the 2.7 day delay is less consequential in contrast to the significant delay of the USA as a whole compared to far eastern countries.
The 2.7 weeks I was referring to is rough guess in the delay of the USA at a institution of national level policy measures to limit virus spread into the country, and within the country. Delay compared the time when the issue was obvious, and a reasonable timeframe to take action. In other words, the ‘writing was on the wall’ in ten foot black letters, and a month went by with meek action, and even denial from the white house.
“So the fundamental issue is whether the 2.7 day delay is less consequential in contrast to the significant delay of the USA as a whole compared to far eastern countries.” Yes, exactly.
First week of Feb China completes rapid construction of 2,600 bed hospital in Wuhan-
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/pictures-china-builds-two-hospitals-in-days-to-combat-coronavirus.html
First week of March- NBC-At the same news conference, Trump said the number of cases “within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
The China hospital build was as clear a warning as anyone paying attention needed. If we intended to fight this thing, that was the moment to get real. Not once the virus was in thousands of towns in the countries.
Hubbert Linearizations for cumulative confirmed cases
For South Korea:
One I did for Italy a week ago:
And for Italy today, with last weeks point given by the arrow:
This is just an experiment to show why there is so much uncertainty in estimating cumulative morbidity based on the current numbers. This is a Hubbert Linearization applied to USA data (deaths) so far
Way too much uncertainty to give it any weight, and even then I wouldn’t trust any of these, since they appear to be totally dependent on the quarantining and isolation policies applied. At any time, the cases can re-emerge.
Paul,
The HL for US confirmed cases might be of greater interest, as we might have a bit better data and we can compare to Italy and perhaps Spain.
Dennis, Good idea. It doesn’t linearize very well, as it appears not to have settled down
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/8295/tduXav.png
Comparison to a different growth than exponential/logistic
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6936/hRV9r7.gif
Paul,
Are you using all data for the linear approximation?
I am using data from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Data from Feb 15 to April 2 results in HL prediction of about 600,000, not sure how you got the 1,000,000 line. If I use the last 5 data points I get 1.2 million cases, so 700,000 to 1.2 million seems like a rough range perhaps.
I agree HL may not be a good method and suggests the logistic function may not match the data very well.
“I agree HL may not be a good method and suggests the logistic function may not match the data very well.”
The one aspect that is interesting about applying HL is how fast the turnaround time is. For Italy, you do an HL one week and the next week it’s on a completely different part of the extrapolation.
For oil, you need to wait many months if not years to get it to budge from the last estimate.
So as far as how I got the one extrapolation for USA, it probably doesn’t matter as the number will likely change in another couple of days.
A commenter at the ATTP blog said:
Unlike climate scientists, I think the idea here is to work smart and not hard. Nothing about these compartmental models requires a supercomputer.
The only caveat to that is if someone is doing data mining to try to reveal patterns in the relationships.
Paul,
For a US Covid HL for confirmed cases I get 400,000 for a total when using all data from 100 cases to present (Worldometer data), that seemed too low, using selected data from n/N at about 15.7% to most recent data at n/N at about 12.2%, the result is about 720,000 total confirmed cases, so a very large range. Also for Italy we are currently very close to 120,000 conformed cases and are likely to reach 140,000 in 5 days, so the HL method is tending to underestimate, just as it does for estimates of URR.
I am using this site for the data
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases
I think it all comes from WHO, and various sites just repackage the data
You might be interested in the country breakdown charts and data here and here, updated daily-
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Italy update
Italy update
Linearization is looking weak. The shape is no longer a symmetric logistic sigmoid, as it is creating a fat tail.
Seismologists are enjoying the lockdown.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-lockdowns-earth-shaking-less-seismic-noise/
I have been tracking the CV-19 cases in Ontario since March 12, my province in Canada. The province and Federal government have been issuing physical/social distancing guidelines since around the middle of March and a few days later travel restrictions on flights. Then on March 23, the province ordered non-essential business to shut down. They also limited groups to two people or three if they were living together. Yesterday they ordered more business’ to shut down.
I have been modelling the number of confirmed cases using a simple exponential function thinking that the initial growth phase would be exponential. Up till yesterday the model sat on top of the data. Today was the first day that the data broke from the model and to the right indicating a possible flattening of the curve. Note that yesterday was 12 days since the province started to ramp up its messaging and taking stronger action, over and above the early warnings issued around mid-March. We will need another week of data to really confirm that we are flattening the curve.
Two charts attached. Ontario and a comparative chart issued by the province yesterday. Note how the Ontario data is a straight line. That is why the exponential model has been such a good fit up to today.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/03/23/news/ontario-orders-shutdown-all-non-essential-businesses
https://globalnews.ca/news/6774918/coronavirus-ontario-workplace-construction-closures/
Chart 2
Ovi, Try a Hubbert Linearization on the Ontario data an see where it intersects.
Paul
That was my plan. However, I need a clarification. The number of cases on March 12 was close to 100 when I started to track the data. Do I subtract that out before I do the HL?
Ovi,
No there is no need to start at 100 cases, that decision by me was arbitrary. Just use N which is cumulative confirmed cases and n/N where n is daily increase in confirmed cases.
Exactly. The one trick if you use Excel w/ the trend feature is to extend the trend by several hundred points, otherwise it won’t extrapolate thru the x-axis.
Paul
As requested, HL for Ontario
Ovi, thanks. Somewhat expected — definitely a pure exponential at first with a horizontal trend, and then dipping down as the mitigation kicks in.
Paul
Chart updated to today. Very sensitive to the early stages data. Significant drop in cases today and breaking further from exponential.
See reply to NOAM below.
The Ontario chart is plotted with a log scale showing a straight line for the exponential. Would your chart be more telling if the vertical axis was log?
NAOM
NOAM
When I started I didn’t know how high the number of cases would go. Also I wanted to observe the difference between the model and data on the real scale as opposed to the log scale.
I could have used a log scale and it would be a straight line just like on the Ontario chart since the data tracks the exponential curve almost perfectly. However I think the deviation from the line would also be smaller. Regardless I will try it to see if the deviation looks bigger or smaller.
The data indicates that the doubling time for Ontario is 4.2 days.
Yesterday the governme
Thanks, I was just wondering if it would make the difference between model and numbers clearer.
NAOM
NOAM
As requested Log and real charts updated too today. Two red dots show clearly
Chart 2
Three red dots show clearly
Thanks, interesting. The current break away shows up more clearly on the linear chart than the log, however, the early bump shows up better on the log, hmmm.
NAOM
The first range 100 to 1000, covers 900 cases in 1.25 inches on the numbers scale. The next 1.25 inches covers 9000 and so the data is more compressed than in the first range.
That is why I prefer the normal real scale when looking for small differences.
Ovi,
For Canada, using Johns Hopkins data from Feb 27 to April 5 at link below
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases
The HL suggests about 42000 total confirmed cases for Canada, which would be considerably lower than the US at about 580,000, to make these figures comparable, for Canada this would be about 1120 cases per million of population and for US it would be about 1757 cases per million.
If this method is accurate (I believe it may underestimate), that is good for Canada.
Dennis
As noted in my original post above, Canada and the provinces were ahead of the curve in starting to issue social distancing warnings, people returning from US, Italy were to self isolate, etc.
Also Canadian cities are not as dense as US cities. Not quite clear on the role of density. I note that destiny was mentioned as a big part of the growth of case in Northern Italy and that was the first place that was locked down.
In Ontario we were fortunate that a number of infectious disease physicians realized what was going to happen and organized labs to get ready to test. Ontario is testing 3,500 people every day and has the capacity to test over 5,000. Today there are only 300 unresolved cases and the turnaround time is about one day.
As an aside I have fitted the logistic curve to my data. Interesting that the HL posted above to Paul shows N =10,000 and the Logistic shows 8,500. I assume as more data comes in the difference will narrow.
Below is the article on what happened in Ontario.
https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/04/how-ontario-turned-the-tide-on-a-huge-backlog-of-covid-19-tests.html
On February 29, one of Ontario’s leading infectious disease physicians sent out an alert that boiled down to this: We are going to need help. Provincial labs needed help from private and hospital labs to process an expected daily attack of thousands of COVID-19 tests.
“Is there anyone else who has the ability to test or is willing to test? This is how Dr. Vanessa Allen describes her message.
When Allen, head of medical microbiology at Public Health Ontario, sent this request, Ontario had only 11 confirmed cases and had tested about 1,000 people. To put this time in perspective, the Toronto Maple Leafs had just won after losing to “Zamboni goalkeeper” David Ayres. The Toronto tour of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s musical “Hamilton” was just beginning and the spring training series of baseballs made fans feel like they would soon be enjoying a game and a beer in crowded ball parks.
The approaching pandemic was not only far from the minds of most Ontario residents, but it was also not the Ontario government’s combat stations, where the focus was on rotation teachers’ strikes. Laboratory sources, who asked not to be identified because they depend in part on government funding, told The Star that it was widely believed that the well-funded provincial laboratory system should be able to manage a large increase in testing.
But in the province’s state-of-the-art laboratory complex located on the top four floors of the MaRS building in downtown Toronto, it was quickly feared that Ontario, rather than late, would need capacity beyond its public health laboratory system to test the virus that was disrupting other parts of the world. Private and hospital laboratories would be required. Internationally, Italy has just reported 29 deaths and more than 1,000 confirmed cases and soon the virus will spread widely. In China, where it started, the tide had turned due to case identification through mass testing – to find out who and how many people had the virus – and social distancing. It wasn’t a great story in the United States yet.
Thank you Paul for a great and interesting post.
I was wondering if you managed to get estimated coefficient of the exponentials after solving SIR differential equations with the limited data we have on hand.
Thanks.
No, if you are referring to the pandemic data. There are so many people working on this topic that I am sure we will get a good model in a short time. This is an interesting doc that compiles all the models that people are working on:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hUZlVDPfa5C8KgURoP_3dAiUQgI6rdb7A5e_g8NcPaY
Thanks for that great link Paul.
Survivors always live\
“What does the global economy look forward to? Even when we eventually contain the pandemic, the inexorable decline of oil will continue. The pandemic itself will provide a transient suppressive shock to global oil production — via demand destruction of production this only temporarily delays the inevitability of continued oil depletion”.
At least I can understand this:
Here is a synopsis of the behavioral loop described above:
Step 1. Individuals and groups evolved a bias to maximize fitness by maximizing power, which requires over-reproduction and/or over-consumption of natural resources (overshoot), whenever systemic constraints allow it. Differential power generation and accumulation result in a hierarchical group structure.
Step 2. Energy is always limited, and overshoot eventually leads to decreasing power available to some members of the group, with lower-ranking members suffering first.
Step 3. Diminishing power availability creates divisive subgroups within the original group. Low-rank members will form subgroups and coalitions to demand a greater share of power from higher-ranking individuals, who will resist by forming their own coalitions to maintain power.
Step 4. Violent social strife eventually occurs among subgroups who demand a greater share of the remaining power.
Step 5. The weakest subgroups (high or low rank) are either forced to disperse to a new territory, are killed, enslaved, or imprisoned.
Step 6. Go back to step 1.
http://www.dieoff.com/
Well, the first two items are unrealistic. They may have seemed realistic 50 years ago, when nuclear was new and wind and solar seemed weak and costly, but they’re just out of date now.
We just don’t need oil, except in the short term. And people don’t maximize reproduction and energy consumption – we see that in most of the world, where fertility has dropped below replacement, and OECD energy consumption has leveled off.
And solar’s 100,000 terawatts isn’t a limit in any practical sense.
So, that description may apply to agricultural societies, but it’s out of date.
Tim E,
A highly simplistic power essentialist analysis. Any analysis that reduces everything to one key ingredient (in your story power is the essence of the analysis) is likely to miss many other important aspects of reality. Everything affects everything in a complex interdependent web, such an analysis is very difficult (perhaps impossible) but has the benefit of reflecting reality.
Maybe try reducing your analysis to 3 or 5 important aspects of society, and you will have an analysis that is 3 (or 5 times) more realistic.
See
https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Class-Marxian-Critique-Political/dp/0226710238
Took a look:
“Intense debates in recent decades have provoked major new directions in Marxist theory. Earlier reductionist notions of knowledge, dialectics, contradiction, class, and capitalism have been challenged and profoundly transformed”.
Good stuff – indeed – but it all becomes real when I – as a Resident who lives in Industrial Civilization – can’t get a gallon of gas – at any price. When the Supermarket shelves are bare. When Humans fight over T.P. supplies.
Thank you Dennis – for you are a good, patient and thoughtful Teacher.
https://youtu.be/OJjai_pxCrQ
Where are you seeing shortages of gasoline?
I’m seeing shortages at supermarkets, especially of paper products. But that has nothing to do with scarcity, and everything to do with simple panic hoarding. It would be a little bit expensive to always have extra supplies on hand to prevent this kind of thing. Manufacturers have worked very hard to eliminate stockpiles and inventory – it’s called “lean manufacturing”.
Maybe more inventory would be a good idea – you have to weigh the cost and decide if it makes sense…
Hi Tim, I quite like MPP and the example you quoted. I’m afraid it’s detractors here might have to come up with a bit more to say I f they wish to be persuasive. Here’s a link for those interested in more on it:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_power_principle
The maximum power principle or Lotka’s principle[1] has been proposed as the fourth principle of energetics in open system thermodynamics, where an example of an open system is a biological cell. According to Howard T. Odum, “The maximum power principle can be stated: During self-organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.”[2]
According to the “ behavioral loop described above: Step 1. Individuals and groups evolved a bias to maximize fitness by maximizing power, which requires over-reproduction…”
Instead, fertility has been falling fast for the last 40 years. Most of the world is below the fertility replacement rate, and most of the rest of the world is getting there.
Women, it’s clear, do not want over-reproduction.
In Africa and MENA, where most of the holdout countries exist, women are being forced to have children they do not want, due to lack of education, career choice and contraception. Still, fertility rates are falling there as well, just not as fast.
Went for my ride, yesterday, and it didn’t quite go to plan. Half way there, a puncture almost exactly half way between 2 LBSs so a 2/3 km hike for a patch. Then, on a track to one of the beaches, my bike found 10m of thick nylon fishing line that someone had discarded. After 1/2 hour sitting in the full sun, no shade there, I finally managed to extract it from both axles. The things I do for POB!
Local shopping street is pretty much BAU. Village center has a big change, what a difference a few days make. From 80% open to 80% closed. fewer people around but still no sense of social distancing.
Beaches are almost deserted at a time of year when they are, usually, so full they are like pans of chipolatas frying in the sun. Managed to cycle along the beach path where I normally have to push with people bouncing off me. Again, almost everywhere closed but Daiquiri Dick’s (appropriate name in the circumstances) was still open and full of gringos. It seems that the local authorities are taking this seriously and are now taking action at the case, case, case level and not waiting for the boom. Nayarit beaches are closed for 20 days.
We have had death due to coronavirus in the local hospital but a couple of Americans have died in their houses of ‘natural causes’ though there is no indication if this was coronavirus or other, heart attacks are a common cause in these circumstances.
NAOM
Good job, you deserve hazard pay for the reporting.
I am not sure how practical this is or if it would work.
Supermarkets have vacuum sealer machines to wrap meat etc in thick, clear plastic and heat seal it. Take a cellphone or pad that has wireless charging capability then vacuum seal it in one of those bags.
Advantage easy to wash down and sterilise, perfect for infectious situations when dealing with someone who has the virus or for that person to communicate with family.
Problems, would there be to much heat for the device, would the vacuum harm it, would the touch screen work through the bag.
A further idea, for situations such as shopping, is to wrap your phone in cling film, before going out. As long as the film is not damaged it is easy to wash down with bleach, without harming the phone, then removed. With tropical storms, that is something I do if there is a risk of getting my phone soaked.
NAOM
Lets keep it simple.
China has 82,000 cases
USA has 324,000 cases (despite a huge heads up on the outbreak)
Why the miserable showing for the USA?
Grade F leadership at the very top.
Sorry if you find the truth bitter, but you did vote for it.
One of my friends flew to Zimbabwe on Feb 25. They were doing temp checks at the airport arrivals gate in JoBerg and Zimbabwe. He flew home to LA via Atlanta on March 10. No temp checks. No information provided or posted at arrivals re: covid precautions. My friend decided to self quarantined for 14 days and never developed symptoms.
USA got outperformed in public health by Zimbabwe lol
I saw an article, the other day, where a trucker who was returning from Canada, after an essential journey, was caught by quarantine changes in Texas. He posted images of the officials demanding that a quarantine form be completed. Not one of the officials had a mask or gloves despite coming into close contact with potentially infected, hence the quarantine, individuals.
NAOM
Dennis, there is a problem:
Post doesn’t show up
And why yes this one ?
Han,
Again sorry, sometimes it may be the links causing a problem (if your comment wont post with the link, try it without and jest tell people to google “x” instead, where x is a search term that will put your link near the top (you could also say search on bloomberg with the title in quotes.
Just some stuff I would try, my web publishing skills are clearly limited, sorry about that, hey the price is right. 🙂
Dennis,
Thanks for clarifying and no need to apologize.
Yesterday was the first time I encountered that problem
and yes, I tried to post with and without link, with the same result.
Han,
Just something to try, not sure it will always work.
Hickory,
Regarding China: reported cases. Anyhow, the number of cases in the U.S will be much higher also, maybe about 1 million.
And
Authoritarian countries such as China can impose stricter controls on movement and more intrusive means of surveillance, such as house-to-house fever checks, tracing and enforcement of quarantines, and are less vulnerable to pressure from businesses and popular opinion. That gives them powerful tools to keep the virus in check, so long as they are vigilant against imported cases. That’s a more difficult proposition for other nations. The poorest countries can less easily afford the economic losses caused by prolonged restrictions, and often don’t have the health infrastructure for extensive surveillance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/when-and-how-does-the-coronavirus-pandemic-end-quicktake?srnd=prognosis
“The great Toilet Paper Shortage of 1973”
“ One store manager marveled, “They buy before we can put it on the shelf!” “I thought because there was going to be a shortage I would come and stock up,” said one customer, “but I see someone beat me to the punch.”
Yep, it happened before: a toilet paper scare during the energy crisis of the early 1970s.
Former CBS News reporter Sally Quinn covered the story at the time: “Amidst the recent preoccupation with the fuel shortage and the meat shortage, a new gap has appeared in the staples of the American household: the toilet paper shortage.”
Filmmaker Brian Gersten made a documentary short about it last year – yes, before the current toilet paper panic! Correspondent Mo Rocca said, “People are going to think you’re some kind of a prophet now.”
Here’s what happened back in December of 1973: “A congressman from Wisconsin, Harold Froehlich, releases a statement saying, ‘The next thing we’re gonna have to worry about is a potential toilet paper shortage,'” Gersten said.
The warning was picked up by late night king Johnny Carson’s writers, who left out the “potential” part. As Carson said during his “Tonight Show” monologue on Dec. 19, 1973:
johnny-carson-the-tonight-show-promo.jpg
On Dec. 19, 1973, Johnny Carson quipped about a toilet paper shortage, triggering panic-buying across America. “THE TONIGHT SHOW”/CARSON PRODUCTIONS
“There is an acute shortage of toilet paper in the good old United States. We gotta quit writing on it!”
The false alarm sent Carson’s audience of almost 20 million running. As noted in “The Great Toilet Paper Scare,” one woman said, “I’m used to being able to go when I want to, when I want to, but suddenly I think I’m going to have to start curbing my habits.”
Gersten said, “People all over the country stormed supermarkets, grabbed as much toilet paper as they possibly could.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/remembering-the-great-toilet-paper-shortage-of-1973/
Todays virus pandemic should be viewed as a trial run in emergency preparedness in America. Not to say the pandemic isn’t an emergency.
The tree rots from the inside
Is The United States in Lock Down?
https://www.flightradar24.com/THY6637/2453b01f
zoom out to see Europe which usually has as many planes as the US in the Air.
See the difference
The USA is on lockdown 1/2ass.
No restriction on flights.
Churches still open with no arrest of the responsible ‘men of god’.
Little if any enforcement of mandates.
Masks optional.
Dismal leadership on this from the white house.
Some locales doing much better than others. There now 11 states with no statewide mandated stay at home order- all controlled by republican leadership.
The recirculated air on aircraft is well known to spread viruses very efficiently.
It will be interesting to see how many people who get on flights during this time become ill. It will also be interesting to compare how different approaches in the States impacted on disease levels.
The most important factor at the moment is having enough ventilators to provide early intervention for everyone who needs help.
Indeed.
Here is an article from about two weeks showing a case in point of state policy difference- Tennessee vs Kentucky.
Kentucky governor issued statewide stay at home mandate on week prior to Tennessee.
As of today Tennesee has 2.9 x’s as many detected cases as Kentucky.
https://www.wave3.com/2020/03/24/graph-comparing-ky-tenn-coronavirus-responses-goes-viral/
In an exponential growth situation with timeframes of spread typical for this virus outbreak, 1-2 weeks early on can make a huge difference.
“States led by Republican governors and with a significant share of Trump supporters were an average of nearly three days later than other states to enact social distancing measures related to the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a new study.”
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/03/31/republican-governors-delayed-key-covid-19-social-distancing-measures/
Did you decide to ride this out near the upper reaches of the Platte or Snake Rivers?
Alas no. I got busy in town. My clients seek pandemic support- health screening/surveillance & eduction/hazard controls for their workers. It’s a long story. Some work got cancelled, other work picked up. I don’t think it’ll kill me though; otherwise yes, I’d be up in the hills.
Thanks for asking though! I hope everyone here is well.
Good work. Power to you.
Hickory, there are no masks or gloves available anywhere near here. The hoarders grabbed them and most cannot get them. This is not a society, it instantly breaks down and the leadership that had more than a month warning sat on their collective butts murmuring platitudes. Hospitals are bunkered down with checkpoints, plywood on windows and negative air pressure. All available beds being converted to C-19 care. Source: personal investigation and conversations with hospital staff . One staff member thanked me for “braving the storm”. Must be even worse in the megopolis .
Add this to the list of countries hiding covid data
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52186521
NAOM
Global lock down
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52103747
This is a very good article of when countries had their first case and how they responded.
There was an early group of countries mainly in Asia
Most of Asia and Europe had the first cases from the end of February to the end of March.
South America and Africa are only about a month behind, they will see increasing cases and an overwhelmed care system in the next 2 to 4 weeks.
At this time the United States and Europe will see cases falling but systems will still be under great strain.
UK has now been in almost full lock down for 17 days, with restaurants, pubs, cafes shut, most museums closed before and no sports.
Many operations have been cancelled and the backlog is building up, some cancer patients have had their treatment cancelled. Nurses and doctors are working every day. It will be months before we get back to normal.
Experts are also taking about a second and third wave of infections. There will be little help for Africa and South America coming from Europe.
Spain’s death rate is still depressingly high, but Italy’s is falling somewhat.
Wayne,
The countries that try to lock things down earliest will have the most success at reducing death rates.
That is the lesson to be learned from the Northern Hemisphere, the regions that heed these lessons will suffer less. They know their healthcare systems will be overwhelmed, it is really their only viable option.
Dennis
That certainly would reduce deaths from the corona virus. But in England if you are elderly with no relatives close by, you have to go out to get food.
What do people do in countries where if you do not work that day you have no food?
The UK government cannot even get food to a couple of million old people with no relatives. India has 500 million people who live from hand to mouth.
The task is beyond comprehension and there is no alternative but to allow those millions to work.
How fast do you think it will spread in areas such as this?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52159986
Some places have very well developed local food delivery systems in place over the last decade. Starting to see more of this in the urban areas of USA too.
Primarily in Asia.
One example- https://www.foodpanda.com.tw/en/
Down here, we have started isolation early though it is not very efficient. It seems to affect the tourist and major commercial centres most while areas like mine seem to ignore it. We shall see how this works.
Here are examples of food aid being provided and a breakdown of essential/non-essential (rather too permissive IMHO) in Spanish
http://impreso.meridiano.mx/edicion/vallarta/2020/04/07/politica/politica_Page_6.jpg
http://impreso.meridiano.mx/edicion/vallarta/2020/04/07/politica/politica_Page_8.jpg
Unfortunately they have just changed their format which makes it hard to read an I can no longer copy and paste to translate.
NAOM
These are great, but many poorer people must work all day before they can buy cheap food in local markets.
I think it will take a couple of months for information to filter out as to the impact on the poorest people.
In the UK, don’t people help their neighbors? A pretty simple solution for UK. For India, I imagine the solution would be similar and the elderly probably live with one of their children in many cases in India.
Dennis
You really really have no idea what places like India and many African countries are like.
There is no food if you did not work today.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/india-covid-19-lockdown-means-food-work-rural-poor-200402052048439.html
If you were Manisha, what would you do?
This is disappointing news.
JAPAN’S WOEFUL CLIMATE PLAN AMOUNTS TO SCIENCE DENIAL
“Being the fifth largest emitter globally and with per capita emissions close to those of the US, Japan however has shown punier responsibility towards the climate crisis.”
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/03/japans-woeful-climate-plan-amounts-science-denial/
FYI
The Blob Sucked Away Your Public Health And Gave You War Instead
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-blob-sucked-away-your-public-health-and-gave-you-war-instead/
They omit that Italy suffered due to late effective isolation and blame the health service. If isolation had been taken seriously, early on, then the results would have been very different.
NAOM
Its perhaps worth noting that America’s public health crisis didn’t start with COVID
America’s biggest public health crisis, according to 4 former US surgeons general
https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2019/10/14/dementia
Opioid Overdose Crisis
https://www.drugabuse.gov/drugs-abuse/opioids/opioid-overdose-crisis
4 DEVASTATING PUBLIC HEALTH CRISES OF THE DECADE
https://onlinedegrees.kent.edu/college-of-public-health/public-health/community/4-devastating-public-health-crises-decade
As far as I can tell American voters would rather line the pockets of Raytheon executives et al than care about one another. If only the hoarding of cash was treated with similar disdain as the hoarding of toilet paper and sani-wipes. Perhaps evolution sometimes works that way.
For those interested in Italy and factors contributing to their COVID case count:
The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/the-chinese-workers-who-assemble-designer-bags-in-tuscany
Coronavirus: The Price of Luxury
https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-price-of-luxury/
CORONA VIRUS EXCLUSIVE: WHY ITALY?
https://www.altnewsmedia.net/news/corona-virus-exclusive-why-italy/
I took a look at the article “price of luxury”. It was interesting, but I was a little puzzled by the strong emphasis on China being the source of Covid 19, and an odd suspicion directed at reporters who didn’t share that emphasis. I then looked at the source, the Spectator. Wow. It calls climate change fake news and a delusion. And…I understood the emphasis on Covid 19 coming from those furriners…
Nick G
Have you got a problem with the truth?
Covid 19 started by leaping from wild animals kept in horrific tiny cages next to other animals and raw meat and veg.
And this kind of disgraceful treatment of animals
https://diply.com/60872/dogs-are-beaten-to-death-and-cooked-at-yulin-dog-festival-that-b
bats are a well know source of viruses
https://americasvoice.news/bats-for-sale-at-indonesia-market-despite-coronavirus-warning/
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/china-virus-outbreak-revives-calls-stop-wildlife-trade-68523804
This coronavirus came from China, just like SARS did.
Despicable behavior often results in harsh lessons
Sure, I have a problem with the truth, when it’s used selectively. In this case, the right wing is emphasizing the country origin of this virus, when it’s irrelevant to coping with it.
Would you have a problem with an article that emphasized that Trump’s background was German, and criticized other journalists who failed to mention this fact?
Nick G,
Why do you bringing politics into it. This article was posted in November 2017:
Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-zero-future-pandemic-180965213/
Bird flu and many other influenza strains as well as SARS started from China too. They need to end their backward treatment of animals, it is completely more or less unregulated, not to mention their slaughter of endangered animals for “Chinese medicine”.
Mike —
Once I was invited to lunch my Chinese hosts and we started driving across Beijing. After passing hundreds, if not thousands, of restaurants I asked them where the hell we were going. Very special restaurant they replied. What’s so special, I asked. Many items on the endangered species list, they answered. Soon, no can find anymore. That’s reality for you.
The dim side of humanity.
https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/10/12/what-are-we-like-10-psychology-findings-that-reveal-the-worst-of-human-nature/
Yes, the Chinese have some serious problems with how they deal with wildlife, and they deserve serious attention.
And it’s also true that Trump’s background is German. I learned that from a perfectly innocent, non-political article some time ago. It’s true information, but it seems to me to be irrelevant to Trump’s character, or the effectiveness of his administration. I hope you agree.
So, information can be true, and yet also it can be misused. In this case, the country source of the virus is being used for political purposes which are unrelated to the serious problems of Chinese wildlife.
I’d suggest you look more closely at the misinformation at the Spectator, but I wouldn’t want to be responsible for your being exposed to such toxic stuff.
Trump‘s grandfather escaped military service in Germany fleeing to the US. There he ran a brothel in the Clondyke area – a good share of the gold nuggets landed in his pocket. A made man, he returned to Germany, where they didn‘t let him in because of having avoided the military. He went back to the US and started the Trum construction empire. Do you really think his character and way to deal with things doesn‘t reflect in his grandson? Really?
Hmmm. Boy, communication of stuff like this is hard.
Okay. I wasn’t talking about Trumps character, or the character of his ancestors. I was talking about the fact that “true information” can be trivial, but made to sound like a bad thing. Like the fact that the Trump family originally came from Germany.
The same thing applies to Obama. His father came from Kenya. This is trivial, and tells us nothing about Obama’s character, and yet some people have made a very big deal about it. Those people have used a true but trivial fact as a way to say something that sounded bad.
In other words, truth can be misused by selective choices, misleading context, etc., etc. Just because something is true doesn’t make it meaningful, and it can still be used in a way that’s misleading.
Now…on to this new and completely different topic: do the sins of the grandfathers apply to the grand children?
1st, let me be clear: I think Trump has very bad character. Worse, I think he pursues criminally bad policies. But…I’m not sure we can rope in his grandfather to take the blame. Let’s take John F Kennedy: his father was, by all accounts, a bad guy: a profiteer of various kinds, he lobotomized his daughter and is reported to have supported Hitler. But…I think his son, JFK, was an above average president.
OTOH, I’ve heard bad things about Trump’s father. I dunno. Family culture is important, but…we don’t really need to examine that stuff. We have all the evidence we need that Trump has bad character and hellishly bad judgement.
I’m curious: what’s your source for this info?
1. Overpopulation- people will try to eat any protein they can get. When I was in the countryside around Hanoi, I saw that all of even the tiniest snails were collected and taken to the food market in Hanoi. I met men who were 4’10” tall, but their grandchildren born and raised in the USA were 5’11”. We humans live in far too close contact with animals, be it pigs or cats. No one ever caught a disease from a plant. Not a single example. Nada.
2. Trump may have bad genes, or suffered neonatal anoxia during birth, or may just have a lazi-ass and selfish mind. Whatever the cause, the result is a pitiful excuse for man, and a disgrace to the country as a leader.
Again, let me be clear: I wasn’t defending Trump. I was using him as an example because Wayne seems to have picked up some right wing memes, so he may have a few positive thoughts about Trump. I think it works best, when pointing out things like this, to use someone that the listener has positive ideas about.
Well, if addiction is a disease there are a few suspicious characters.
And then there’s this bacteria: Pseudomonas aeruginosa
And now, time for a macchiato.
Bob- Pseudomonas aeruginosa is among the most common and widespread bacteria in the soils of the world. It can cause disease in both plants and animals. For humans pneumonia is the most common illness (generally among those with compromised status and not among healthy individuals). It is never known to be contracted from plants.
Wayne –
Information is not necessarily useful just because something is true. Ad hominem and tu quoque arguments are good examples of true statements that are not constructive in an intelligent conversation. And as Mark Twain put it, there are three kinds of lies — lies, damned lies and statistics. Notice the point here — that statistics which state the truth can be mendacious.
It’s typical of Republican (and fascist) ideology to try to find a human culprit to blame everything on. Trump does this all the time. Foreigners are a popular target.
The Pentagon does this too, bizarrely talking about “good guys” and “bad guys” in their official briefings, like schoolkids playing cops and robbers. I’ve long suspected that is the reason they can’t win wars.
The problem with finger pointing (beyond its general nastiness and pettiness) is that it usually leads to false conclusions and poor policy recommendations. It’s better not to clutter your mind with finger pointing and try to understand the real nature of the problem.
The reason so many people are dying in America right now is down to home grown problems, like the lack of basic medical care for millions, and the strident ideological tone of public discourse etc.
Alim,
While i agree with almost everything you said in that statement. The following paragraph you wrote:
It’s typical of Republican (and fascist) ideology to try to find a human culprit to blame everything on. Trump does this all the time. Foreigners are a popular target.
You can apply it to any ideology. For example the counter example would be, the democrats in the U.S blaming all the ill wills of society and policies on republicans, right wingers etc.
From a larger perspective. Everyone is biased in one form or another. It seems to be human nature.
the democrats in the U.S blaming all the ill wills of society and policies on republicans, right wingers etc.
I must call bullshit on that one Mike. The Democrats do not blame the Republicans for all the world’s environmental problems. What they do blame them for is not trying to fix them. There is a difference you know.
Of course we all have our biases. But trying to paint everyone with the same brush is just pure bullshit. That is the mark of a Republican saying, in effect: “Sure, my party does a lot of self serving and destructive things, but the Democrats are just as bad.”
Oh! Did you hear, Trump insists that his name be printed on all the stimulus checks. And he has cut off funding to the World Health Organization, saying it had put “political correctness over lifesaving measures.”
Mike, you cannot put cover on all the very, very stupid things Trump has done by saying that the Democrats are just as bad. That only calls your judgement into question. I know he is your man but you are backing a moron.
Ron,
First, Trump is not ‘my man’. He is a megalomaniac. I would never endorse an individual with psychological issues to lead the most powerful country in the world.
Secondly we will never see eye to eye on this issue. You might think your vote matters, but i don’t. In my opinion, corporations have bought both parties and essential nothing changes regardless of who is in charge. Nothing but a smokescreen. That is my biased opinion.
What matters most is economic figures like GDP, jobs, taxation policies etc. For the political establishments these are the most important metrics.
Lastly, yes Trump has cut funding to WHO. So what? You are the one that linked a video about WHO, which painted them as a corrupt organisation which is heavily influenced by the Chinese government. Now you are complaining for him cutting their funding? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
@Mike
Sometimes you need to work with someone even though you may strongly disagree with them. WHO had work with the Chinese to get acess, they got a lot more out of them than in previous cases. It is sometimes called diplomacy, something that the USA administration is very much lacking. Trump’s withdrawal of funds has nothing to do with WHO’s actions but, instead, is a move to deflect blame ‘I am perfect, are you’.
NAOM
exactly NAOM
Mike,
“You might think your vote matters, but i don’t. In my opinion, corporations have bought both parties and essential nothing changes regardless of who is in charge.”
Because you and others can’t see the difference between Trump and Obama is the reason democracy is failing in America. Mike you are part of the problem.
Regarding Trump’s cutting of WHO funding, how is this up to his discretion? Spending is appropriated by congress, and doesn’t the Impoundment Control Act require that the money is spent as appropriated?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impoundment_of_appropriated_funds
NAOM,
WHO doesn’t disagree with anything China does. On the contrary, they don’t even want to acknowledge Taiwan as a country. There is a whole heap of evidence of WHO not even wanting to use the word Taiwan. They consider them completely as a part of China and not as an independent country.
Why would the U.S who is the biggest donor of WHO continue their support if WHO is in bed with China?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlCYFh8U2xM
And it could be argued they assisted in the spreading of virus by discouraging travel bans.
HuntingtonBeach,
First of all i don’t live in America. So what i think or do doesn’t affect “American democracy”. Secondly it seems everyone who disagrees with you is part of the problem. You must be some sort of all-knowing god i suppose.
They consider them completely as a part of China and not as an independent country.
That is the official position of the United States. Only 15 out of the 193 states in the UN recognize Taiwan. Obviously, the US position is complex, but that is the basic starting position.
@Mike
You don’t seem to be groking that WHO has a fine line to tread with China so that they can work with them and not get thrown out of the country. If they mention Taiwan they will be out on their ear, pronto. I would have thought you would be aware of that from where you live.
As for why USA should support WHO, well there are a couple of hundred other countries that the WHO supports other than China. Trumps actions are simply trying to blame others and cover his failings. It is worth noting that the initial cover-ups are likely to have nothing to do with the Chinese Government but are more likely due to local officials not wanting anyone in their area to be making their life difficult and trying to hide it from Central as they could be punished very severely if they were seen as not in control.
NAOM
NAOM
Mike-
I am not claiming that “bad” people are never the problem, just pointing out that the are not always the problem.
A good example is the (Russian financed) Republican gun mantra, “Guns don’t kill people, people kill people”. Democrats disagree, saying the problem is too many guns.
Another example is America’s traffic death epidemic, which is mostly caused by bad street design. Opponents of improved street design (many of whom are financed by ALEC, a Republican ally) blame pedestrian deaths on inattentive pedestrians. The real problem is that the streets are too wide and pedestrian amenities are missing.
The Reagan administration famously blamed homosexuals for AIDS, and there was widespread Republican propaganda to the effect that the epidemic was “God’s punishment” for homosexuality.
Right wing Christians routinely blame sinners for all kinds of things, including volcanoes and hurricanes.
Republicans are on record saying that the best birth control is aspirin held between the knees. In other words, they blame female immorality, not the lack of basic education and modern medical infrastructure for America’s problems with abortion and out-of-wedlock births.
Another common trope is that “black -on-black” violence is the fault of black people. In fact, the lack of competent policing and social work, as well as city design that disrupts communities is more likely to be the problem.
The drug trade is often blamed on immorality as well. It would make more sense to ask why it it is illegal to set up a push cart on a city street and sell anything at all legally. Think about Eric Garner, who was strangled to death for selling cigarettes on the sidewalk, a completely reasonable activity. It is a systematic failure a complete breakdown in a country supposedly based on freedom and markets. Bad system design is the problem, not the immorality of Eric Garner or the police.
Why has organized crime been so strong in American cities, Russia and Southern Italy? Because the people are immoral? No, because of poor governance. The immediate populist attitude in America is to denigrate the people in high crime areas instead of seeing it as a systemic problem. That is why Trump has had so much success taking over the Republican party with his “bad hombres” slander.
And so on.
NAOM,
When it started in Italy (February 21), in a small town in Lombardia, police closed the access roads to foreigners. Could be seen on t.v.
The problem with this virus is that people can transmit it while having (almost) no symptoms, and probably even by breathing and talking to someone nearby.
That is why in the future they are planning to test, test, test. Not resolving the problem of ‘silent transmitters’ with that.
Bits and pieces to add here:
1. Re “having (almost) no symptoms”: 75% of asymptomatic covid-19 sufferers go on to develop symptoms. The range of symptoms that you read on the CDC and other official websites is incomplete, and based on my personal experience (currently recovering from what is likely a mild case of covid) there can be symptoms that you don’t know are symptoms, or are ambiguous. My first “ghost symptoms” came 10 days before visible signs (I kept notes when I first started to wonder if I had an asymptomatic case). I recommend developing a checklist for the general public (something like the classic Chilton’s list for repairing a car that won’t start) to help diagnose and pre-diagnose the illness. The information that’s available now is too vague to be useful unless you are already in respiratory distress. Early information said that 98% of cases had fever; read an article today that said the actual number is likely 44% (and which validates my experience, as I have had one day of low-grade fever in 5 weeks). As more information is gathered, better tools and guidance will develop.
2. As you say, we will need to test (and I say we need to document). We need:
-an antibody test to make up for the initial lack of testing
-tests for active cases with enough sensitivity to catch “ghost symptoms” (if we have an informed populace that can identify potential early symptoms)
-enough testing capacity to administer multiple tests per patient, so that we know A) when you have it and B) when it’s gone. I went 4 days without symptoms and thought I was recovered- at which point I had a relapse. Testing would have been helpful.
-documentation saying you have antibodies and that you do not have active covid would be useful for things like deciding who should take care of aging relatives.
And all that testing is going to stress the current Medical Testing infrastructure to the breaking point: not enough test sites, sites not set up for 6 foot separation, and not enough lab techs.
Glad to hear you are through to the other side. Perhaps you could put together a suggested checklist based on your experience.
NAOM
I thought about it just enough to know that this project would take a team of doctors from several disciplines (public health, immunology, primary care, etc.) with access to current reports and statistics, and able to extrapolate from studies like the testing done on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (valuable because they tested a complete population over a period of time) to arrive at acceptable definitions and timelines. They also would need the time and flexibility to produce and update this thing in a dynamic environment. That Chilton list was usually connected to a manual that told you how to fix the fuel system, the electrics, and all the other subsystems once you figured out what was wrong. The covid checklist would not only tell you where you probably are on the timeline if you have symptoms: it would connect to detailed information about what to do at each stage.
I suspect the reason the current questionnaires are so useless is a combination of:
-not having enough information yet
-the form of the questionnaires (usually webpages with multiple choice questions), which are not written to provide an overview
-the stated purpose of the questionnaires (which is essentially to ration testing)
-the lack of a public education strategy (which may be a matter of the speed with which events are changing, but is at least partly a result of Trump’s incompetence).
The more I think about it, though, the more important it seems. Treating mild covid effectively and safely at home, identifying asymptomatic spread, and reducing both public fear and patient denial (that is, convincing yourself that you don’t have it) would reduce stress on the public and the medical system.
Locking down one town will not do much if an area is infected, in fact it may hinder as the attitude of ‘we have it contained’ may blind authorities to looking further. From the reports I have been reading, many areas put restrictions in place that were soft and widely flouted until a ‘get tough’ policy was introduced. By that time the horse was out of the stable and galloping all over the countryside.
NAOM
NAOM,
That’s correct, and apparently happened in Italy and a lot of other countries
In other news-
Virus economy repercussions on electric demand. Expect big slowdown in wind/solar projects.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coronavirus-will-undercut-power-demand-from-east-to-wecc
Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has suffered its most widespread coral bleaching on record, scientists said
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-great-barrier-reef-worst-ever-coral.html
For those who think people come off the ventilator and scurry out of the ICU before returning to work the next day, here is some troubling reading.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/the-road-to-recovery-for-covid-19-patients
It will take a lot longer for things to get back to normal than people think.
NAOM
They’re gonna be hobbling around in droves for quite and time.
From what ICU doctors say, most don’t survive.
Most coronavirus patients who end up on ventilators go on to die, according to several small studies from the U.S., China and Europe.
And many of the patients who continue to live can’t be taken off the mechanical breathing machines.
“It’s very concerning to see how many patients who require ventilation do not make it out of the hospital,” says Dr. Tiffany Osborn, a critical care specialist at Washington University in St. Louis who has been caring for coronavirus patients at Barnes-Jewish Hospital.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients
UK figures
1/2 in ICU die
2/3 on ventilators die
NAOM
Coronavirus and Our Age of Discord by Peter Turchin
“A scientific prediction, unlike a prophecy, is not about a future, but about a theory — it’s a way to find out how good is our understanding of the way the world works“.
http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/coronavirus-and-our-age-of-discord/
Pandemic modeling including mitigation is mainly game theory.
Peak oil modeling like AGW modeling is partly game theory.
Natural climate change modeling is all geophysics and therefore no game theory.
Why? Depends on how much human decisions are a part of the loop. In other words, high morbidity projections are used to convince the public to participate in mitigation procedures such as social distancing and partial quarantines. This then has the effect of making the projections wrong when put into practice. Then the second-guessing comes in that the original analysts failed with respect to predictive modeling. It’s a no-win for predictive modeling on this one.
This is even worse than peak oil modeling, which is also wrong by definition as soon as conservation practices are put into place. The difference is that the wrongness has a much faster turnaround time for pandemic models.
The intractability of Game Theory : https://phys.org/news/2009-11-science-economics.html
Something like this-
‘All models are wrong. Yet some prove to be useful, nonetheless.’
‘Time will tell’
‘The best model in the world, is worthless without the appropriate input assumptions’
And perhaps most importantly at this moment in history, the paramount leader of the USA does not subscribe to any model with results that are not in his personal favor.
I think the models are correct but the adaptive response counteracts the model predictions.
Unfortunately, this provides fake ammunition for the contrarians that say the models don’t work. They are all over Fox News, see Brit Hume and others.
‘this provides fake ammunition for the contrarians’
well, that is certainly not my intention.
Any facts or data sets or model results are subject to being cherry-picked, misused, and twisted for economic, political or religious propaganda.
It is a constant battle to communicate complex results and limitations of scientific findings to the general public. This task is certainly under threat, with watchdogs being thrown out the door left and right, for example.
Fauci seems like like a very nice guy, but I have to give him at best a C grade (very generous) for his handling of his position in this current viral pandemic- He has failed to stand up strong for policies, based on science, that could have cut this viral experience in half in the USA, cowering to the boss. He has failed to call out the falsehoods propagated by the Fox and the President in strong and certain terms. The economic and human damage has been immense from feeble policies of the Federal government.
It’s very hard to explain self-falsifying forecasts. They’re the opposite of self-fulfilling forecasts, which I think are easier for people to understand.
Economics and commodity markets are full of self-falsifying forecasts. LTO is a classic example: people kept predicting higher oil prices, So, people kept drilling for more oil and causing lower oil prices…
Paul, how can models be correct that do not include major factors that influence outcomes? Those models are incomplete and therefor give false results.
I think the model is correct in the limit of strict quarantining. See Hong Kong, etc. I would be interested to know how that model can be invalidated.
Ok, within tight constraints and in a non-real narrowly viewed world most models (climate, pandemics, energy) are valid on paper.
Gone fishing,
I would agree most models do not reflect reality with perfection, especially models that are influenced by human behavior.
Knowledge of the model will influence decisions by humans and this often invalidates the assumptions of the model making it incorrect.
This is self evident.
Dennis said:
Besides being a principle of game theory, this is also known in economics and other social sciences as the Lucas critique, Goodhart’s law, Campbell’s law, and other empirical laws
Dennis, Governor Cuomo just showed three projections of serious cases for Covid -19 (ones that require hospitalization. The first, from Columbia University, showed over 100,000 cases in NYC. The second and third from another source showed about half that and then later came out at about 20,000.
You can imagine the quandry he is in, which to believe. Of course, like climate projections, the lower ones need extreme active intervention that is probably not possible. His take was, we cannot deal with the top two projections (not enough facilities, personnel, etc.) so we have to find ways to further bend the curve. He did not seem to know what they were or if stronger restrictions would be adhered to by the public. The problem is that they are just projections and it is unknown if they are anywhere near reality.
It’s all math and guessing games until it becomes real, then there is no time left for guesses.
Apply that to the global warming circus going on now for four decades and multiply the horror by several orders of magnitude. It’s all minimize action and delay action, until past the point of no return. Then it’s out of our hands, we will be too busy trying to survive and patch the endless disaster of civilization breaking down.
P.S. Sad part is we have known for decades and predicted this type of virus outbreak would occur . Have had some very near misses in recent history. It was only a matter of time, so why so woefully unprepared? Why so scattered in response?
https://xkcd.com/2289/
NAOM
Yeah, useless.
Paul I’m no expert at all on modeling and its way over my head, but even I can tell you do outstanding work. It is an excellent attempt to describe how the future may unfold. Thanks.
Thanks
Photos of the 1918 influenza pandemic
https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/1918-flu-pandemic?mediatype=photography&phrase=1918%20flu%20pandemic&sort=oldest
140 million new human brains just arrived on this planet last year, making about 2.8 billion new ones over the last two decades. What have they been taught? What will they be taught? What will they do to stop the destruction of life on this planet and enhance life? Or will they just be taught to continue the horrifying and deadly culture that has taken over the planet, all justified by words and implemented by actions of the enslaved minds? Whatt are you teaching them, they are at your mercy now. Soon you will be at their’s.
I believe in Darwin’s theory, but I don’t quite agree with the idea of the “survival of the fittest.” What I believe in is “survival, despite mankind.” Man has proved over and over that millions of years of evolution means nothing if you fall into the sights of man.
There some among us who will eat every last dodo, pave over breeding grounds and spray insecticide until every last bug—good, bad, or monarch butterfly—is gone from the face of the earth.
It seems to be within some of our natures to destroy nature. Fire will consume nature until not a tree is left standing, and then it dies out. Cancer will attack and destroy, cell by cell, until it triumphs, killing its host, and then it dies. Man, by nature, burns the bridge on which he stands in conquest, in the name of progress, or for profit, seemingly unaware that he is the master of his own destruction as well.
https://educationpost.org/teaching-our-students-to-save-the-planet-may-be-the-most-important-lesson-we-can-teach/
What is the most complicated object in the known universe? Google it…
THE HUMAN BRAIN
Complexity? Here is some highly complex engineering to accomplish…?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBOqfLVCDv8
Look on it as a model of human industrial civilization.
Did you Google it like I told you to?
Will Humans get Healthier now? Air Pollution kills how many per year?
“For many residents, the sight is something which they have never witnessed in their entire lives…”
My Texas friends are saying to snoops this. We can’t really be poisoning ourselves like this.. 🙁
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/himalayas-visible-first-time-30-years-india-lockdown-sparks-stunning-drop-pollution
Big drop in traffic accidents also.
Well, been out for my weekly shopping. Generally, a few less people out and traffic reduced. Seeing more masks around. Social distancing a non-starter.
Local seeds & cereals shop has a one way system, in one door out the other, and crosses for distancing. Medisim is offering a free mask for anyone over 65 or with breathing issues.
Wallymart, still no staff masks or gloves, flu jabs have gone. No rice, no beans except fava, oil, desserts, flour ok, toilet paper recovered, bleach about 50%. Checkouts have grown perspex screens and crosses at 2m spacing. Less people than last week and no sign of family outings. Mostly people being considerate except for one stubborn b’tard whose trolley I had to knock out the way with mine.
La Comer, you DO NOT get in without gelling your hands, flow control upstairs (carpark on ground floor, shop upstairs). One way system in groceries with signs on the floor and stands, up one isle down the next, enforced by security. 1.5m distance stickers, big green circular ones, on the floor at the checkouts. Roaring trade in home deliveries.
I’m getting OCD for gelling and hand washing.
NAOM
“Mostly people being considerate except for one stubborn b’tard whose trolley”
If people don’t give you space, just start acting a coughing fit and wipe your brow. Ask them for directions to nearest hospital still taking patients.
Forgot to mention, the sanitising gel has taken on a distinctly Tequila smell!
NAOM
Vodka works.
No it doesn’t, not strong enough. Unless you count moonshine grade.
NAOM
“No it doesn’t, not strong enough”
You sure about that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIO4tz0a5mE
Well, you need 120 proof, which apparently does exist…
I can think of better things to do with that – pass the cola! 🙂
NAOM
Little quiz-
2 of the last 4 presidents made historic grand errors of judgement that will be recorded in the annals as among the worst in this nations history. Costs of the first being approx $5 Trillion dollars, and the second having costs that can be attributed directly to presidents decision making gross failure estimated to be well over $2 Trillion dollars, and perhaps approaching $3T.
For reference- The Vietnam War (another grand error) cost $168 billion, or $1 trillion in today’s dollars.
So, lets see if you can name these two Presidents and their political party.
Not to mention the fact that Tricky Dick sabotaged the peace talks in 68 because he reckoned he would have better chances of winning if the country was at war. The CIA busted him but Johnson decided not to go public with it for whatever reason.
And it looks likely that Reagan conspired to delay the release of Iranian hostages until after the 1980 election.
I guess people don’t like quizzes-
Answer-
Bush-republican
Trump- republican
Total cost for gross errors of judgement- $7-8 Trillion dollars,
directly attributable to Iraq invasion, and failure recognize and act early in the Covid-19 pandemic
India Coronavirus
If the virus spreads at a rate seen in Europe, it does not take a genius to see how badly India will come out of it.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/25/asia/india-coronavirus-doctors-discrimination-intl-hnk/index.html
In the UK we are applauding NHS workers every Thursday evening at 8pm.
In India they are attacked and evicted from their homes
It has been surprising to me to see how slowly the virus outbreak has progressed in places like India, Nigeria and Brazil, compared to the pace/capita in the countries of Europe.
But I realized that two factors are likely responsible for most of this lag.
One is low testing and reporting rates, with many cases going ‘under the radar’.
Secondly, these countries have much lower per capita international travel, and thus less import of virus. And those who do travel are generally from the upper economic crusts with limited contact with the ‘commoners’.
I do expect a building surge of cases in these countries.
Yes the amount of testing in India is very low.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/health/covid-19-are-we-testing-enough-here-s-how-india-fares-versus-others-120040901595_1.html
They are not even testing 1 in every 100,000 people, compared to 183 in Spain.
India for all it’s improvements over the last 20 years is still in many ways a very backward country.
Tens of millions have no electricity, no home clean water and no toilets.
If people think things are bad in the United States and Europe, see what things are like by the end of April in India, Pakistan and South America.
A number of coronavirus patients are getting reinfected
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208019/S-Korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again.html
If the numbers are correct, then lockdown is useless as the virus will just continue to reappear again and again.
This virus will simply become another flu strain, killing many one year and less another. In a bad year 650,000 die of flu. Given the grim choice between a relatively quick death from Covid19 and dementia I would take Covid 19.
https://www.healio.com/psychiatry/alzheimers-disease-dementia/news/online/%7B71e1ae94-2c23-41fa-a0f3-d3caafec92e9%7D/dementia-incidence-increased-117-globally-from-1990-to-2016
2.4 million people died from dementia in 2016, perhaps we should be trying to live better rather than so much longer
Wayne,
Did you read more than the headline of the first article you linked.
No reinfections, just poor test results where either false positive or false negative tests can result.
Dennis
At the moment no one knows if people are immune once they have recovered.
Those people who were originally tested had symptoms and most were in hospital so they almost certainly did have the virus.
If the virus can reactivate, that means it can hide just like malaria can.
There are many virologists who are saying eventually everyone will get the virus as it is now gone far beyond containment. What is being done now is reducing the rate of increase, the total number will be the same eventually.
In the meantime 17 million Americans have lost their jobs and many have not received any payment from the government. Food banks are empty and people will actually go hungry this Easter.
In addition to DC ‘s comment, if indeed there are cases that test true positive after clinical illness, this is much more likely relapse than re-infection.
The question is- are any individuals who have antibodies, and yet still have some detectable virus, able to transmit to another person. It will take awhile to determine if any of this relevant, and if so, in which cases.
Here is an article talking about this in South Korea. I think probability is with what Dennis is saying.
Nearly 100 people in South Korea have tested positive for the coronavirus again after initially being cleared of the virus.
The number of relapsed cases grew to 91 from 51 on Monday, and officials say it remains unclear what is behind the trend. Epidemiological investigations are still under way.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, the director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said the virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected a second time. Other experts have suggested false test results could be to blame.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-world-live-updates/live-coverage/0934c8e89013155dcba5ec8864949575
Despite the current slowdown (short depression?) innovation will creep along.
I suspect that by the end of this decade, the hydrogen energy transfer sector will be large, although now tiny.
‘The most ambitious of the plans being tracked by Wood Mackenzie is the Asian Renewable Energy Hub in the Pilbara region of Australia. Billed by backers as “one of the most exciting energy projects in the world,” it is set to have up to 15 gigawatts of wind and solar generation capacity, 12 gigawatts of which will be dedicated to green hydrogen production. WoodMac estimates the hub will have 1 gigawatt of electrolysis capacity upon completion in 2027.’
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/mega-projects-help-double-green-hydrogen-pipeline-in-just-five-months
Meanwhile,
Daily CO2: Apr. 9, 2020; 417.85 ppm; Apr. 9, 2019; 412.53 ppm
Yeah, he has a lot of nerve, providing encouraging information. He should be depressed, like the rest of us.
Keep on pelting him with negative stuff – he’ll learn.
Got it. Only good news allowed, even if it’s woo woo fantasy fluff. Shouldn’t be taking up valuble space with hard data anyway, I suppose. Is it any wonder Fred left us? Think I’ll follow him!
Edit:
Doug, are you familiar with transactional analysis? One of the ideas is that conversations (which these comments are, kind’ve) have an emotional component which may not be obvious, but which is nonetheless important. When someone says something, others can respond positively or negatively, and that has an impact. I note that Hickory below doesn’t seem worried about such nuances, but other readers will be. It’s unpleasant when people post negative replies. In this case, the point is that you didn’t post your comment in a random place, you posted it in response to something that was mildly optimistic. It was a reply. And so…it has impact.
Now, something occurs to me that I should have thought of long ago: you’re an oil & gas veteran. You have a technical background, and so I assumed that you would feel comfortable with new technical ideas, but…I think you find new ideas, like EV, and wind and solar, truly odd and fantasy-like. It didn’t occur to me that you could really truly think that, but I think you’re still in the oil & gas box, like so many oil & gas veterans. So in your bones you really don’t believe there are substitutes for fossil fuels.
That might be worth a conversation, rather than a simple dismissal.
You are making a lot of assumptions. Here are two facts for you: (1) I’ve been following the oils sands development in Alberta since its inception and have always considered it (them) one of the greatest assaults on planet Earth ever conceived; (2) Perhaps because I’ve spent a lot of time in Japan (and can read-write-speak the language) I have a habit of following their energy related news including the work toward a hydrogen based economy. As far as I can determine, the country is doing a lousy job transitioning away from fossil fuels and the work on hydrogen isn’t going well at all.
JAPAN RACES TO BUILD NEW COAL-BURNING POWER PLANTS, DESPITE THE CLIMATE RISKS
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/climate/japan-coal-fukushima.html
You are making a lot of assumptions
Sure. You’ve been very active with the kinds of comments that I have trouble with, and I’ve asked you many times “why”, and you haven’t answered. So…in the absence of information, one speculates. I’d prefer to have a productive conversation instead…
I agree with you about both oil sands and Japan’s lousy progress towards renewables. Japan is a puzzle: it’s technically strong, but it’s utilities just hate renewables.
It’s not clear why. It’s worth noting one paragraph in the article you provided: ““Japan is an anomaly among developed economies,” said Yukari Takamura, an expert in climate policy at the Institute for Future Initiatives at the University of Tokyo. “The era of coal is ending, but for Japan, it’s proving very difficult to give up an energy source that it has relied on for so long.””
As for hydrogen, I don’t see anything in that article. I know that Japanese car companies are promoting hydrogen. I think that’s a mistake, and almost all consumers seem to agree resoundingly: hydrogen vehicles are selling in only really tiny quantities.
Please note that when I discuss hydrogen I’m not talking about small passenger vehicles – again, I think that’s a dead end that’s been debunked many times. I’m usually talking about large centralized utility storage, and maybe large fleet vehicles. Those are very different propositions.
Has anybody heard from Fred?
I didn’t always agree with him on details or the relative importance of various problems and issues, but imo he was one of the most productive members of this forum.
Wherever he is, I wish him the best of luck.
It’s only negative in your head Nick. To Doug, myself and other rational thinkers, it’s just data showing a growing trend. Like a warning sign for a cliff ahead. Tends to inform one to allow appropriate action and monitor “progress”.
Do you ignore your blood pressure, cholesterol, lipids, and other biomedical signs if you think they are negative? Or do you just never test, avoiding any bad news?
Have a happy, upbeat day!
See comment above.
I guess you don’t see the relationship between an imagined hydrogen economy and CO2, just want some social distancing.
Please expand on that – it’s unclear.
Nick,
Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, a significant portion of that increase is caused by burning fossil fuels.
This is related to global warming. The imagined hydrogen economy is a portion of the plan to substitute non-CO2 emitting energy systems.
Voila, proposed hydrogen economy is linked to atmospheric CO2 with the hope it will reduce the atmospheric level or at least decrease the rise.
Yes, of course. That’s obvious.
Much of these conversations is about problem solving, and sharing information about ways to attack the problem of climate change. Is this kind of reply productive? Does it have anything directly to do with the comment it was attached to? Or is it simply a negative, intended to suggest that nothing is working and nothing is likely to, and why bother?
Let me put it another way. Replying in that kind of fashion is just rude. Let’s say you go to a friendly dinner party and join a discussion about cancer treatment, perhaps started by someone who’s relative has cancer. Someone says something about a promising treatment and you reply “Hell, everyone dies in the end”. Will those people welcome that comment? Will they think it’s productive? One can argue it’s true, and that it’s relevant in a general way, but if you make a lot of comments like that you’re not going to be invited back to that party real quick.
Nick, you have some serious mental problems. You asked me to explain the relationship between CO2 and the hydrogen economy. I do in a simple and clear way, then you rant and ramble about cancer and call me rude.
You seem to be in a mood to attack for no good reason and appear to be responding in inappropriate ways and mixing responses. Hope you take care of that soon.
GF,
Sigh.
Look back at the comments that began this discussion, and follow the flow of ideas – it’s all about the original comment by Hickory and the reply by Doug. It’s not about you.
You discussed the connection between CO2 and the H2 economy. I agree that there is a connection, but that the connection is so obvious that it doesn’t need to be mentioned. To bring up CO2 levels in a reply to a H2 project doesn’t convey productive information, it simply conveys pessimism. And, I provided an analogy: replying to a discussion about cancer with a pessimistic comment about death being inevitable. Again, it’s an analogy. Make sense?
If a comment doesn’t seem to make sense, just say so and ask for an explanation, as I did when I asked you to expand on your comment about hydrogen.
I dunno. Have we beaten this horse to death yet?
One mans pessimissm is another mans realism.
IM, Please re-read the “guest at the cancer discussion” analogy.
As I continue to think about it, I’m thinking the guest could say something like he did, and have no idea that it would come out wrong. Maybe that guest is feeling hopeless about life, has seen death around him, sees death coming for him and those he loves, and is making a heartfelt plea for help. Maybe he’s asking for someone to make a convincing argument that there’s hope, and that life has meaning after all.
Puts a different angle on it…
I welcome facts, CO2 and all. Thank you Doug.
We all should know the current CO2 levels off hand, rather than stock prices or touchdown/ interception ratios.
I don’t post things, positive or negative to belabor the emotion, rather to help keep the collective story realistic and aware. Many aspects to it, from destruction to innovation, etc.
I’m not trying to feed anyone pudding, or rotten meat.
Doug, why so high if industrial civilization has shut down to a large degree?
Buggered if I know. The 5.32 ppm increase kind of took me by surprise but, in truth, comparing individual days is sort of cherry picking. The thing that does seems odd (to me anyway) is you’d expect (as you suggest), a dip with the global slowdown. Maybe it all comes down to a lag in the measurement system or simply some random fluctuation? Then again, perhaps something more ominous is going on? Time will tell but apparently I’m not allowed to suggest the uglier possibilities. Like I said, time to follow Fred.
Just a WAG based on physics and biology, but as one increases the light input, it heats up ocean and land. Both exude more CO2 upon temperature rise.
But many here will refute that, since it does not fit their mental models.
Wonder what the increased energy input will do to methanogenesis. I am with you Doug, at least in action, time to follow Fred. Hope he is doing well and best to you and your family.
The biggest reason people stop participating in blogs like this is rudeness. I’m just trying to suggest politeness and an attempt to make conversations productive.
And…as I think about it…I was rude myself. So, I apologize – I should have found a better way to raise a concern.
We can all do better.
I strongly recommend this 28 min video ‘Burned- Are Trees the new Coal’ to all, Every moment of the story is extremely well told, and the message is very important.
https://vimeo.com/286550378
You tell a similar story about corn ethanol, palm biodiesel, sugarcane ethanol, all around the world.
That is an excellent video. And the message is loud and clear: NO PROFIT=NO PROBLEM. We must get rid of the profit motive. Where are the ‘free marketeers?’ Liars, all of them…
I don’t quite see it like that Edgy, in fact a profit is reasonable expectation for someone who is going to risk their time, back, or savings.
But a message I got- is the greenwashing rules enacted by the EU opened the door for this environmentally destructive industry to flourish (yes, with a strong artificially introduced profit motive). The whole idea of carbon offsets is a shame. The only way to truly lower the carbon intensity of a culture is to simply burn less [much less] stuff. It helps to leave forests alone too.
The USA does a similar thing as the EU, with corn ethanol.
36 million acres of prime farmland (prime forest/mixed woodlands) went to corn ethanol last year. Thats equivalent to a majority of the farmland in Illinois and Iowa combined. Environmental tragedy on grand scale.
Hickory, I was referring to the subsidies and favorable tax treatments mentioned in the film. That’s what makes them profitable… and greatly reduces their (financial) risk. Not to mention that entities (corporations) granted personhood should be dealt with harshly when they up and lie in order to get those dollars and subsequent profit.
I agree that it is an enormous environmental tragedy.
Agree Edgy
New summary of USA energy budget is out [2019 year results] from Lawrence Livermore Lab.
Interesting writeup linked.
Some pertinent points-
1. Solar and Wind make up less than 4% of total! [long long long way to go].
2. Coal and Petrol make up 48% of total energy consumption! [replacing those sources should be the paramount priority, natural gas can be the focus once those are gone. Most of us will be gone by then].
3. Wasted energy (incomplete combustion, engine friction, unused heat, etc) accounts for 67% of total generated! [huge room for improvement here]
4. “Almost all energy going into transportation currently is in the form of petroleum, and yet those internal combustion cars and jet planes are mostly producing heat and very little relative energy, to the tune of 1 unit of energy per 4-5 units put in. That’s 20-25% efficiency. Compare that to an EV, which is over 90% efficient.”
5. “The whole US transportation industry uses only 5.93 quads of energy to propel vehicles around. While it takes 28.3 quads of mostly petroleum to do so today, replacing internal combustion or jet engines with their much more efficient electric alternatives means you’d only need about 6 quads of electricity to produce the same movement.”
6.”Are Trees the New Coal”- [I look forward to watching the embedded video on this subject]
https://electrek.co/2020/04/09/us-energy-chart-2019/
Efficiency is remarkably important.
You can think of transportation as zero % efficient. From the point of view of physics, almost all transportation is “translation”: moving something from one place to another. Unless you go uphill, there is no energy left – it’s all lost to friction. So, you have a limitless opportunity for reduction of those friction losses. The drive train can become better. The wheels and tyres can be improved. The aerodynamics can be improved. The solar vehicle races are impressive: they can do 110 km/hour, for days on end, powered by nothing by solar.
The same thing is true of housing: improve the insulation enough, and you no longer need a furnace (the concept of passive-house).
For both transportation and housing, you can improve efficiency to the point that they can be powered by ambient energy, particularly sunlight. I have a calculator that’s been powered for the last 30 years by sunlight – no batteries needed. Medical devices are being developed that are powered by tiny bits of bodily movement.
Just noticed this. It looks like China is limiting the animals that can used as livestock, and:
“ In late February, Chinese lawmakers adopted a decision to prohibit the trading of wildlife and eliminate the trade and consumption of wild animals after the outbreak emerged, according to the nation’s state-run news organization Xinhua.”
https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-unveils-list-animals-farmed-meat/story?id=70083529
Re: The Virus
The biggest thing, I think about this virus in the U.S.A. and almost everywhere else, is everyone of us were all so unprepared for this pandemic. If there’s any changes coming in the future I hope the next time we get a pandemic like this we have better equipment and preparation. We need clearer exit strategies also so we aren’t going as long with a shut down economy and unemployment as we are now. We would be so better off right now if we had plans to get through a pandemic in 2-3 weeks instead of how long it’s going to be for us instead.
My bigger fear actually at this point is if some of the restrictions on movement and business aren’t lifted next week, or certainly by May 1st, we will have rioting and civil unrest as most people can’t last much longer not having normal life activities to do. I tried going to a hardware store the other day but it was already closed by 6 pm! A woman trying to get in just like I was said we are living in the United States of USSR with all this virus stuff. Anyway, I did state I think we were lucky the physical distancing measures is enough to get the curve flattened but that the gov (whose a Dem) needs to get the economy back again sooner than later because it’s hurting to many people who don’t have enough money to survive a few weeks without working.
If you want it to be like it was before the virus, in a few weeks you’re nuts. We have two choices. Restrict the virus and physical contact or let the virus run its course and infect roughly 60-80% of the population. The passage of time has done nothing to protect people from it. The primary goal of “flattening the curve” was to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. But the measures instituted to this point will do nothing to contain the virus or prevent its spread longer term. We are buying time. Precious time and what matters is what we do with that time. Despite the denial, the most important thing that needs to be done during this time is to ramp up testing capabilities so that anyone who suspect of having the illness is tested with a quick turn around time, everyone who tests positive has all their contacts traced and put into quarantine. This is the only way to limit the spread of the thing until a vaccine is developed. We have no other tools. People who just can’t wait to gather in large crowds simply have a death wish until then. Stores will have limited hours. But they can be opened with appropriate safeguards. The schools can be re-opened with extreme care. It is going to be a slow painful process. If you just set a date and tell everyone to go back to business as usual, we will be right back to square one and all of this pain, the economic pain will have been for nothing. The second wave will be worse than the first.
It sucks. I’m in my 20’s and supposed to be out having fun but can’t because everything fun is closed down. I’m also angry because I haven’t played D&D, haven’t had a meal that wasn’t home cooked, and haven’t had fantasy sports for a MONTH now, yet I still see jackoffs gathering for home parties and backyard sports, which aren’t “officially” allowed. Those are the kinds of things that will cause us to get another month or two added to social distancing!
OP is correct, though. If the more heavy-handed governors don’t start setting goals for when their state’s lives and economy can begin getting back to normal, they are going to start facing even bigger revolts within the next week or two.
“haven’t had a meal that wasn’t home cooked”
I’d be treating that as a bonus.
NAOM
It’s a good thing this is a Trump bone spur war , because if this was 1942. We would all be speaking German now.
Gavin Newsom is keeping Californians alive. Stay safe and put on your big boy pants Captain.
Not even all sports were completely shut down in 1942 like they are now!
The Axis advance in the Pacific halted in 1942 when Japan lost the critical Battle of Midway; later, Germany and Italy were defeated in North Africa and then, decisively, at Stalingrad in the Soviet Union.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II
Trump can’t figure out production and logistics of paper face masks. Bankruptcy is his specialty. Conman is his game.
You know, this isn’t about Trump (not all things in the world are) but the massive disruption to our ways of life that people aren’t going to accept for much longer.
Fools are his flock
“Study: Nearly a third of Americans believe a conspiracy theory about the origins of the coronavirus” Pew research study.
Wonder where they get their news [Fox].
Yes without bread and circuses we are all going to burn Rome down.
You’re right – it’s not about Trump, it’s about right wing media, like Fox and Rupert Murdoch, telling their audience deadly misinformation about Covid 19 and the economy.
Trump is just the latest front man in the long propaganda war against rational public policy.
I must say that I’ve come to have a very good opinion, recently, of HB.
Hey, make sure you put that statement in my chapter of your book. Peace
Biden 2020
Bwa-ha-ha
Viruses don’t follow plans, they make their own. Haven’t you noticed that people have been dying for well over 3 weeks. As for that store, I thought it was a free country and stores could close when they please or are you advocating a communist state that orders shops to be open?
NAOM
It seems like many places are shutting down because the staff don’t feel safe. I’ve talked to a number of business owners who felt that the decision was out of their hands – they just couldn’t operate with so few staff.
I am seeing many places with far fewer staff than usual, those that are open. I don’t know if it is due to jobs being cut because of reduced trade or workers don’t want to come in or a mixture. The big supermarkets seem to have more than usual though.
NAOM
gurl u cant even get yo hair or nails did no more cuz of the lockdowns ?
Pat- agree that we need to learn a lot and handle this kind of situation much better.
We all want this to be an easier thing to handle, and the best way is to limit the case spread early.
Travel restrictions (light) were instituted far too slowly and weakly. Airplane travel into the country should have been cut back severely in early Feb,
Testing and contact tracing were key ingredients to countries that handled this well- coordinated at the high Federal government level.
Pandemic costs in the USA that can be attributed directly to presidents decision making gross failure estimated to be well over $2 Trillion dollars, and perhaps approaching $3T.
Stop covid or save the economy? We can do both
by David Rotman
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/
In the first employment report after social distancing measures had taken hold in many US states, the Department of Labor announced that 3.3 million people had filed jobless claims. A week later, in the first week in April, an additional 6.6 million claims came in—almost unfathomable compared with the previous record of 695,000, which was set in 1982.
As bad as those numbers are, though, they greatly understate the crisis, since they don’t take into account many part-time, self-employed, and gig workers who are also losing their livelihoods. Financial experts predict that US GDP will drop as much as 30% to 50% by summer.
In late March, President Donald Trump warned against letting “the cure be worse than the problem itself” and talked of getting the country back to business by Easter, then just two weeks away. Casey Mulligan, a University of Chicago economist and former member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, warned that “an optimistic projection” for the cost of closing nonessential businesses until July was almost $10,000 per American household. He told the New York Times that shutting down economic activity to slow the virus would be more damaging than doing nothing at all.
Eventually the White House released models suggesting that letting the virus spread unchecked could kill as many as 2.2 million Americans, in line with the projections of other epidemiologists. Trump backed off his calls for an early reopening, extending guidelines on social distancing through the end of April. But his essential argument remained: that in the coronavirus pandemic, there is an agonizing trade-off between saving the economy and saving lives.
Evidence from research, however, shows that this is a false dichotomy. The best way to limit the economic damage will be to save as many lives as possible.
Road Rules for the Corona Era
By Edward Lampert
https://www.nysun.com/national/road-rules-for-the-corona-era/91083/
America has been responding to the Covid-19 pandemic like it’s a hurricane — stay inside until it passes. A more constructive and realistic approach would be to treat it like driving a car — find rules that reduce the risk.
Ordinary life during a pandemic shares a significant characteristic with highway driving. In both cases, the behavior of an individual can have a life or death impact not only on that individual but on many others. A reckless driver may injure innocent pedestrians or get into a head-on collision with another car that is obeying all the rules. Likewise, a careless virus carrier may infect others, spreading Covid-19 to persons who had been healthy.
Driving an automobile is risky. In 2018, the number of auto-related fatalities in the United States was 36,560, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Yet we don’t ban automobiles, nor do we impose a 10 mile an hour speed limit. Doing so would eliminate most of those deaths and injuries, but it would also adversely affect economic activity enabled by faster transportation of people and products.
Overall, the benefits of automobiles exceed the costs. Individuals knowingly assume the risks. Businesses compete to make money by reducing those risks. To deal with market failures and externalities, and to provide a certain minimum floor, we have regulatory mechanisms imposed by government to mitigate risks and compensate for losses.
These same approaches can be useful in guiding the public policy response to the coronavirus, showing the way to a middle ground that minimizes harm without excessive costs to either the economy or individual freedom.
The current restrictions — forcing many businesses to close involuntarily — have cost more than 10 million American jobs in just two weeks. More than $5 trillion in wealth has disappeared, and the federal government is borrowing trillions more to try to provide economic relief.
Beyond the mounting economic costs, the current restrictions significantly undermine American freedoms — the liberty to work, to associate, to partake in worship, property rights, the freedom to contract, and the freedom of movement. It’s hard to recall a more expansive, expensive, or intrusive set of government restrictions.
We need to get America back to work quickly. Businesses and individuals can adapt dynamically to intelligently guard their interests, seek opportunities, and make trade-offs. The government can provide the traffic signals and the safety standards. That approach to public health is consistent with a free and economically vibrant country, rather than in conflict with it. It’s tested on our highways every day.
Your analogy to driving risk is a good one, except that relaxing Covid-19 containment measures, without rapid virus testing available for everyone, would be akin to driving without safety controls (e.g., no traffic lights, no road signs, no policing, no seat belts, etc.). The article in the MIT Technology Review, provided above by Cats@Home, is worth reading as it nicely describes the problem of restarting the economy without the availability of widespread, rapid testing for Covid-19: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/
Thank you Longview for writing my response for me. We will resume activities when they are safe with reasonable risk. That’s not the case today. I would listen to and trust a 6th grader about safety and Covid 19 today before Trump.
I’m still not understanding completely what got in the heads of people like Bill Gates saying society will need to be shut down until a vaccine is available but those thoughts have to get out of their head fast. If the tornadoes that we’ve seen today in Louisiana and Alabama aren’t enough to give Gates and other people a wake up call that it’s unrealistic to stay home until the fall of 2021, I don’t know what else could. If Gates and Fauci don’t like it that’s just too bad because states like Alabama have suspended their coronavirus restrictions due to today’s tornadoes, and you can bet that’s the end of restrictions for Alabama. This is just the beginning of what’s to come for many states in the weeks and months to come with the south leading the way.
Well, do you agree that raising the restrictions will mean that more people die from the virus?
How many more people would you estimate will die because of this decision?
The models have way overestimated the number of deaths the virus would cause.
I’m in the camp with the others of “let’s rip the band-aide off.” If we die, we die. Ultimately there’s no getting around death for any of us. If that means 2 million deaths then that’s what happens. If somebody goes to an MLB game and spreads the virus, so be it, because the alternative is disrupting our society beyond anything recognizable for years to come.
I’m speaking for people like @Pat Clogger above that being shut down for 18 to 24 months or what have you without anything (sporting events included) is just completely unrealistic. I believe May 1st is when things should (slowly at first) start getting back to normal. Sporting events can return by June or July. Not alternatives like Thanksgiving, which “experts” in California are saying or Bill Gates’ wish to wait until there’s vaccine (which we all know that’s just unrealistic too, and he probably knows it, but basically Gates is risking bankrupting nearly every sector by trying to keep sporting events, concerts, and everything else closed until next year).
The models have way overestimated the number of deaths the virus would cause.
How do you know?
Oh come on. Look at Ohio, governor made decisions based on an OSU model stating a peak of over 9,000 new daily cases by mid-April and 2,000 daily hospitalizations. In reality, daily hospitalizations never went above 143 (April 10th) and the number of daily deaths and hospitalizations is going on a clear downward trend in the state.
Canada’s models were saying 11,000-22,000 deaths before the pandemic was over yet they have only 717 deaths right now. And the daily count of deaths there isn’t showing a big increase.
At least if we start reopening some things on May 1st, we can still salvage an MLB season for this year, with the World Series maybe like the first or second week of November.
https://www.facebook.com/139479770800/posts/10157970393460801/
Well, I was curious about your source, Republican Ohio state senator Brenner, so I did a quick search. Turns out he rejects climate change as a problem. And, he’s aggressively pro-life, which means he probably rejects evolution and basic biology.
I don’t think I’ll trust him as an authority on epidemiology…
First off, no model is accurate, and as soon as you start making changes, they change. This is a time fraught with unknowns.
As for ripping the band-aid off, you’re talking about more unknowns. We only have a hint of what the actual human cost will be. I have been in quarantine for covid since March 19th, and was symptomatic since Mar. 9th (though I didn’t realize it at the time). I usually bike commute to work, half an hour each way. I took a ten minute bike ride on Thursday and was exhausted. I play Harmonica: my endurance there is down, too. I wasn’t hospitalized and didn’t have Pneumonia. No one has any idea if these effects are going to be permanent. It is not unreasonable to wonder if all of the victims who end up with severe pneumonia will end up with some degree of disability and ultimately, reduced lifespan.
These are just the unknowns that are becoming known. We don’t know what the unknown unknowns are yet. Some SARS experts suspect direct brain infection in severe cases. We don’t know why (exactly) more men die than women. The psychological cost will be huge: I’m sure we all know people afraid to go out.
So it’s not just old people die, and life goes on. Covid will probably leave a huge amount of disability in it’s wake, likely far greater than the immediate deaths. A prudent person would want to minimize that, too.
Wish you a full recovery Lloyd. Take care as I know you are.
@studebaker-driver
Yeah, the actuals are coming in under the models as precautions are taken as to be expected. The more restrictions, the more the deviation from unrestricted spread.
You are happy to let a couple of million die so you can watch MLB, you a really sick piece of shit.
NOAM
PS No offense to shit meant.
Stud- regardless of everything else, the bottom line is that Trumps severe mishandling of this problem, and especially the 6 week delay in meaningful action, has done huge damage to the economy and public health.
Even a 2-3 week quicker response with strong measures to block incoming cases and diminish internal spread, would have saved the economy $2-3 Trillion dollars in direct costs [conservatively].
His failure is the reason the USA has by far the worse case chart of any country, despite having a very big head start.
Its not complicated. It is an extremely tragic grand-scale blunder.
“The models have way overestimated the number of deaths the virus would cause.“
Maybe. Fact is that in a lot or most countries (old) people who die without being tested positive for covid-19 are never counted as deaths caused by covid-19
“I believe May 1st is when things should (slowly at first) start getting back to normal. Sporting events can return by June or July. “
The problem is that most (almost) asymptomatic people won’t get tested, but many of them will spread the virus. The plan to test many people and if positive isolate them is not at all a guarantee that a second wave of infections will not follow.
I agree that what Gates advocates is unrealistic though and most probably he knows that indeed
what B. Gates has advocated is very similar to the measures taken by Taiwan. Proof of success in seen easily on the country comparison charts.
Much less economic damage if the correct steps are taken early.
Everybody here should read this.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-the-coronavirus-is-doing-to-rural-georgia?utm_source=pocket-newtab
Thanks OFM
Back at you, with a piece written by a former Bush (1st) speech-writer, excellent summary
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/americans-are-paying-the-price-for-trumps-failures/609532/?fbclid=IwAR1d59F42dEpzktpjSykvA1fDO6-yCPVLi0-sUHEPz1bTRvHh8X1HpTqv84
nine Georgia counties, most of them also in the southern part of the state, not only lack hospitals but have no practicing physicians at all, according to Monty Veazey, the president of the Georgia Alliance of Community Hospitals. Eighteen have no family-practice doctors. Thirty-two have no internal-medicine doctors. Seventy-six counties have no ob-gyn.
This says it all.
I don’t venture to this side often, but thought I would maybe take a stab at it.
A stripper well producer friend of mine sent me a list of the various petroleum based products being used to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a very long list.
Before I get attacked, I do not necessarily disagree we need to move away from petroleum based transportation.
But, as we are seeing, any radical changes to the world economy will wreak havoc.
I suspect the Green New Deal will cause at least as much havoc as this pandemic. But maybe the economic hardship is better than the BAU alternative.
A couple of thoughts:
The production of petroleum-based plastic doesn’t have to produce pollution (no burning!), so the prevention of climate change, for instance, doesn’t require doing away with it.
I agree: a bad planning process, and a badly managed transition could cause a lot of unnecessary harm. I’d suggest a market based approach: tax the burning of fossil fuels, and leverage the strengths of a decentralized system. A regulatory approach (e.g., CAFE regulations) is very useful as well, if managed very carefully. But a market approach is at the same time very powerful, very simple and reduces unnecessary disruptions.
The revenue could be rebated back to the industries and consumers most affected so we don’t slow down the economy, and to ease the pain.
I agree. Plastic is lightweight, saving transport energy… structurally strong and is the first accidental carbon capture strategy. Seriously, it is.
” first accidental carbon capture strategy”
Seriously? Its more of a reverse ‘catch and release’ program- release and catch.
The carbon for plastic comes from captured carbon deep in the earth.
Thats a fake credit system you describe.
” a list of the various petroleum based products being used to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Count me among those who are thankful for so many of petrol derived products that we get to benefit from in life, medical especially, but all sorts of others. I suppose if we were perfect beings, we would have no hands, and we would be grazers, and have no pockets or processions. But we are not.
If we survive the next couple of hundred years, as a civilisation, I wonder if people will be cursing about all those useful raw materials that were just burnt.
NAOM
Kenneth Deffeyes wrote that his granddaughter would one day say: “You just burned it? I cannot believe you just burned it all.”
I suspect the Green New Deal will cause at least as much havoc as this pandemic.
Nah, that just ain’t gonna happen. The world will get off fossil fuels when there are no more fossil fuels to get off of. Yes, we will build a lot of solar farms and wind turbines. But as long as fossil fuel is cheaper than battery power, and of course it always will be, fossil fuel will always be used to fill the spaces when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. Also fossil fuel will always be used to fly jets and power ships. And of course there are the many thousands of products, including fertilizer, that will not be replaced by solar or wind power.
Agree with Ron.
Even if a version of the Green New Deal gets through congress, overall it will be a gradual a shift in energy policy. We just don’t get things done quickly in the USA, even if it is an imperative. We will take the slow walk pace, slightly quicker than a lazy shuffle.
Just look at our Covid-19 testing
Tests/1 million population , as of today
Venezuela 5,613
USA 7,989
Russia 8,005
Slovenia 16,429
Estonia 22,205
“Tests/1 million population , as of today
Venezuela 5,613“
According to https://covid19info.live/ Venezuela has only 175 confirmed cases. Loco
Like the USA, they have been under counting.
For those who think BAU will be disrupted after the virus
https://www.politico.com/cartoons/2020/04/10/the-nations-cartoonists-on-the-week-in-politics-000144?slide=5
NAOM
I hope you guys from the U.S are keeping safe and limiting your exposure to the virus. Your leaders response to this pandemic has been appalling to say the least. Whether or not this will cost him the election, remains to be seen but I am skeptical.
Anyways keep safe everyone.
What burns me up is not the level of response but the atrociously inappropriate response measures that were taken by the authorities in the USA. At first they refused to do anything meaningful like testing incoming travelers, and next they go stark raving mad, shutting down the real economy.
They had a full 2 months to prepare with a multi billion dollar intelligence gathering apparatus,and a Military to dwarf that of any other nation on the planet. And a Federal reserve with an unlimited ability to print.
The federal Government should have funded and coordinated with the state Governments, a national response effort to set up Covid hospitals when and where needed throughout the United States.
It’s total lunacy to depend on current local hospitals to take care of their regular patient flow and then be prepared to take on the multiple surges of Covid patients and be responsible to not spread it to their own staff and then to their regular patients. And it is criminal to have cancer and other immune compromised patients be forced into close proximity to Covid infected people.
The setting up of these Covid Hospitals in outlying hospitals and other existing buildings and mobile units, should be headed up by the Army Corps of Engineers, By offering good pay, They could hire healthcare professionals including management Doctors Nurses Paramedics dentists and provide additional training as needed for a appropriate medical response to a contagious and somewhat deadly epidemic.
This type of response should have been done from the beginning but starting now would be far better than never.
Farmlad, just who are “they”? Exactly what authorities are you talking about? You paint with a far too broad brush. When you refer to “authorities” or “they” you should be a bit more specific.
You are correct, I have in mind the White House, Congress, the DOD, the DHS and to an extent the Federal Reserve.
While some hospitals are being overwhelmed and treating their staff like dirt. Pushing them to work outrageous long hours with a patient to staff ratio double and triple what would have been the max in normal times. On top of that there are other Non-covid critical patients in the same hospital being subjected to a high level of risk and inadequate care.
At the same time we have plenty of hospitals running very low census, within a 1 or 2 hour drive of these inundated hospitals. These hospitals could send out paramedics and transport the best fit candidate patients back to fill the voids. but because of financial structures, risks and bureaucracies it is not happen enough.
I get it; our healthcare system has some major issues that should have been addressed a long time ago. On the other hand are the local hospitals responsible for the tragic fast spreading outbreak? I would suggest that the City, the State, and even more so the Federal Government should be held to account for allowing this virus to spread so rapidly and therefore they should take the responsibility to make the financial incentives line up so that hospitals are happy to hire plenty of staff and take on all the Covid patients that need help.
Before the testing started to seriously get under way I was just imagining scenarios of how the USA could best take care of the sick from this virus. I assumed, since this virus is quite contagious that Hospital Groups could take one or more of their less busy branch hospitals and turn that into a designated Covid Treatment center but so far I’ve not seen any such actions. Instead; they continue to pile covid patients in with uninfected patients and require many of their healthcare workers to gown up with PPE for the covid patients and then take it all off for the uninfected patients. Or even worse, just inform them that they are out of PPE and that is that.
Thankfully this virus in most cases is taking out people who’s quality of life is not all that great anyways and who would likely not have lived another year without significant amounts of resource draining treatments and procedures. I also think it’s time that we as a society are once again forced to recon with our mortality but it still hurts to see our healthcare workers and many others being placed on the front lines when so much of this could have been handled so much better.
For some background see
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html
From the article linked above:
“Any way you cut it, this is going to be bad,” a senior medical adviser at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Dr. Carter Mecher, wrote on the night of Jan. 28, in an email to a group of public health experts scattered around the government and universities. “The projected size of the outbreak already seems hard to believe.”
A week after the first coronavirus case had been identified in the United States, and six long weeks before President Trump finally took aggressive action to confront the danger the nation was facing — a pandemic that is now forecast to take tens of thousands of American lives — Dr. Mecher was urging the upper ranks of the nation’s public health bureaucracy to wake up and prepare for the possibility of far more drastic action.
“You guys made fun of me screaming to close the schools,” he wrote to the group, which called itself “Red Dawn,” an inside joke based on the 1984 movie about a band of Americans trying to save the country after a foreign invasion. “Now I’m screaming, close the colleges and universities.”
His was hardly a lone voice. Throughout January, as Mr. Trump repeatedly played down the seriousness of the virus and focused on other issues, an array of figures inside his government — from top White House advisers to experts deep in the cabinet departments and intelligence agencies — identified the threat, sounded alarms and made clear the need for aggressive action.
The article explains in detail many of the missteps and general dysfunction of the Trump administration from late January to mid-March, when 6 weeks that could have been used to prepare the nation for the coming pandemic (obvious to may public health experts at the time) was essentially wasted.
The choice we make for president matters.
“atrociously inappropriate response measures that were taken by the authorities in the USA…they refused to do anything meaningful”
If you are talking about the white house, I totally agree.
One of my worries is that Easter would see a rush to the coast. The town put sanitary filters on the roads to check people and tell anyone going on vacation that the town was closed and they should go home. A third death puts some emphasis on this. To see what effect it was having I took a trip downtown, on Saturday, to see how things were.
Roads were very quiet and the transito were taking the opportunity to repaint the lines on the streets. There was a lot of painting and maintenance going on in many places. Social distancing still bad but masks are spreading. Local seamstresses seem to be turning their machines to the production and many are on sale in shops, the street hawkers are doing a booming trade in home made masks.
The beaches are closed and the authorities are enforcing it with barriers, police and National guard. Here are some views as of Easter 2020
This area is normally like bicycle dodgems even without Easter
Nope, nobody here
Here neither, on a normal Easter you would only be able to see the sand between peoples toes
Here are today’s protests against the social distancing shutdowns in Ohio. The protests are just getting bigger by the day, and now people are chanting for the governor to resign. There’s no way the state stays shutdown past May 1st. At this rate the orders might not even last the rest of the week.
https://twitter.com/Ben_Schwartz24/status/1249770647191842816
https://twitter.com/karenkasler/status/1249771785412722688
Looks like 12 stupid people. Similar to trump inauguration.
The astroturfers are manning the blogs to carry their masters wishes to sow disinformation.
NAOM
Looks like 12 people with some common sense and an intact intuition for what comes next. Most Americans live hand to mouth and if their income is taken away for several weeks let alone several months then famine riots looting and even revolution is most likely not far away. If the USA Government wants to shut down places of employment they first need to replace the lost income with a timely and consistent check in the mail. The more challenging part is how could the Government take care of the gig workers, self employed etc whose income has been reduced from meager to desperately inadequate.
So an even better way to ensure that no one falls through the cracks(meaning their minimum basic needs are more likely to be met) would be if the USA would issue a $1500 monthly check in the mail to every American Citizen or legal resident that is not incarcerated for as long as this epidemic lasts. This would allow everyone to pay for food and basic shelter. To reduce inflation the IRS should implement a VAT on non-essential goods. Credit for promoting these ideas goes to Andrew Yang, MLK George Henry and many more.
Being real about it, all the states and citizens want to return to complete normalcy of economic matters as soon as feasible.
And the governors are working on concrete plans to get it done on an appropriate time-scale and step wise fashion. You better believe they all want their economies to get rolling. They have budget nightmares and human tragedies on their plate.
But they are also not foolish enough to be irresponsible about it, or move just to appease the re-election aspirations of trump (most of them anyway).
You don’t retreat when your enemy (virus) just starting to run low on ammo.
Hickory,
They are probably unaware of the fact that over 10,000 people have already died of the disease in NYC alone, because Fox isn’t reporting it. I make it a point to mention this fact in my online interactions.
The lack of testing will let the virus spread faster (see the simulations I posted below) but it reduces the number of confirmed victims. The media are unlikely to hype the numbers.
They want their rights back.
There is a state that has a right-to-die law. Is it Oregon or Washington? I always get them confused…
Thankfully the majority of folks that become critically ill have already lost their quality of life. Folks tend to forget that we are all mortals and the time comes when your health sucks so badly that death becomes preferable. For evidence just look at all the suicides.
So I would say those that feel they are vulnerable and can afford to isolate should go ahead and do so. Many of the rest of us prefer to deal with this virus sooner rather than later once we have exhausted all our resources.
Sadly there are quite a number of folks throughout the world that are quite vulnerable but don’t have the resources to self isolate but neither do they have the resources to hold out during a shutdown. It makes my heart cry seeing these individuals.
So that is why I advocate strongly for a UBI for everybody, so anybody can afford to self isolate if that is their preference.This would give us a better chance at achieving herd immunity in a timely way so life can return to a better normal than otherwise. A UBI should be issued in every country throughout the world, by whoever controls the monetary printing press.
You seemed to have been seriously misinformed about the way this virus works. Why don’t you spend some time working as an orderly in a hospital since you don’t seem to be “on your last legs”?
The young and healthy may be at higher risk from 2019-nCoV than commonly thought:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/young-people-are-not-immune-coronavirus/608794/
NY MD Kerry Kennedy Meltzer writes:
And, as noted below, a large percent of those who survive will have long-term disability.
And I’m astounded at people’s willingness to write off older folk, many of whom we rely on for their expertise and experience. All of the strongest recent candidates for President were 70 or older. And, Fauci is 78: if we lose him, who will protect us from the orange one?
Reminds me of those Western movies where the gang rides around town, with their guns, demanding the townsfolk do their bidding instead of listening to the mayor.
NAOM
Bring the prisoners out, so we can string em up!
In this metaphor, I guess the prisoners are those more vulnerable to the virus…
They want their rights back
Always avoid people who react to specific problems by ignoring the details and invoking vague general principals like “freedom”, “company strategy”, or “what the customer wants” etc. If you can’t avoid them, never argue against them, but try some flanking suggestion.
The problem is particularly acute American political discussions. I call it the “free dumb” principal: We don’t do dumb things because we’re dumb, we do dumb things because we are free!
The error is in prioritizing winning the argument over solving the problem.
Give me liberty, or give me death!
Give me liberty or give me your grandparents death!
CameronB,
Liberty to infect anyone you wish. So we could choose liberty and 2.2 million deaths, or choose to mitigate and be socially responsible and perhaps have 50,000 to 100,000 US covid19 deaths.
Luckily we have some intelligent people in the US who choose less liberty and less death.
Luckily we have some intelligent people in the US who choose less liberty and less death.
Yes we do. And we have one very unintelligent POTUS who would choose more death in order to prop up his economy. He sees a good economy as key to his reelection, damn the millions of deaths it might cause to get him there.
But it’s not just 2 million deaths from covid19. Add on 10-100 million very-seriously ill with long recovery times. What happens when the sedatives that allow people to suffocate in peace run out, will patients have to die feeling themselves slowly drown in their own fluids? The loss of many doctors and nurses leaving the hospitals depleted. Will doctors and nurses flee to countries where they do not have an impossible task and a chance of survival?
Then there are those patients have issues that are survivable with medical care, the heart attack cases, falls leading to broken bones, car crashes and many others who will not get treatment because none is available. Soaring crime as police are depleted, fire brigades too. Will insurance companies survive with money pouring out of them?
It just goes on and on, I suspect that letting the virus reign will not just result in a recession but a collapse.
NAOM
NAOM,
Agree, it is kind of funny the clowns that think they know more than the experts, the only case where it is not funny is when we have one of those clowns as president. It that case it is a tragedy.
It’s not just the clown at the top, it’s the whole circus car of clowns at the top. I really feel sorry for the people of the USA. Our leaders, here, got on with the job and the difference can be seen in my photos of what is normally the busiest weekend and fortnight of the year.
NAOM
Dennis
Is this the sort or expert you are talking about?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-chief-says-widespread-travel-bans-not-needed-to-beat-china-virus-idUSKBN1ZX1H3
Di you agree with the WHO position at the time?
It is easy to be right after the fact.
The travel ban came from experts:
“ Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, who was coordinator of the task force at the time and announced the travel restrictions, said Trump made the decision in late January after accepting the “uniform recommendation of the career public health officials here at HHS.”
While the World Health Organization did advise against the overuse of travel restrictions, Azar told reporters in February that his department’s career health officials had made a “considered recommendation, which I and the president adopted” in a bid to slow spread of the virus.”
https://apnews.com/0dc271ad7f7917374a5a0cfb49273783
Experts aren’t infallible, but they’re obviously better than Fox News “opinion”.
I will go to my grave convinced the orangutan would not have imposed any travel restrictions, except for the fact that doing so plays well with his ignorant core constituents,and didn’t amount to much in terms of affecting the economy adversely over a few weeks or months.
Nearly all business CAN be conducted via phone and live teleconferences these days.
So the ban allowed him to get in a political lick.
When the rest of the chips were down, except for just this first one, he chose to gamble on the economy and his reelection rather than take the advice of those same medical professionals.
Even the dumbest of the dumb street criminals occasionally listen to SOMETHING their lawyers tell them.
Wayne,
When you are sick, who do you consult with?
I prefer a medical doctor, you can choose who you wish.
Experts are not infallible, just the people who have the greatest knowledge on a particular subject.
Nobody is clairvoyant, and nobody worth listening to has claimed as much.
There is a take home message or two from this episode
-hit it hard and early with restrictions, testing, case tracking, quarantine and the result will be less economic damage and less death
-have at least average intelligence leaders who care about more than just themselves
-have at least average intelligence leaders who care about more than just themselves
That’s asking a lot from our present political system. We elect people who tell us what we want to hear; we don’t elect people who tell the truth
Great post.
April 15th-
More than eight in 10 voters, 81 percent, say Americans “should continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus, even if it means continued damage to the economy.” Only 10 percent say Americans “should stop social distancing to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the spread of coronavirus.”
Source?
Did a quick search on the pull quote.
POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL
Poll: Don’t stop social distancing if coronavirus will spread
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/15/poll-dont-stop-social-distancing-coronavirus-spread-187290
Thanks Lloyd.
Seems a lot of experts and common folk are in agreement that the costs to totally eliminate the corona virus would be too costly if not impossible. I would bet the odds would be stacked against waiting for a vaccine. That would leaves us with flattening the curve and to what degree.
The question we should be discussing is what rate of burn would be the optimal in balancing the costs to the survivors of slowing the spread with the casualty cost of allowing it to burn too fast. Also keeping in mind that if we keep the rates of transmission lower in the beginning it gives us more time to figure out what therapies and procedures work better and which don’t work as well.
So looking at just one scenario for ICU capacity in the USA where we currently have 2.7 ICU beds /10,000. If we cut this down to only 2 for non covid cases and increase capacity by 1/10,000 then we have available for Covid patients 1.7 /10,000 If 4 % of infected require intensive care for an average of 2 weeks, then how many years would we need to flatten the curve? 10,000 x 4% = 400 400/1.7 = 235 2 week periods or 9 years.
Not sure much of an economy will be around to maintain such a scenario in a decade so I would say we should seriously be discussing more options than just flattening the curve.
Seems a lot of experts…are in agreement that the costs to totally eliminate the corona virus would be too costly if not impossible.
Do you have a source for that?
Nick Would you have a good source for a different position? If you are waiting for a safe and effective vaccine then Good luck. So far we still don’t have one for the first SARS.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/
In late March, President Donald Trump warned against letting “the cure be worse than the problem itself” and talked of getting the country back to business by Easter, then just two weeks away. Casey Mulligan, a University of Chicago economist and former member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, warned that “an optimistic projection” for the cost of closing nonessential businesses until July was almost $10,000 per American household. He told the New York Times that shutting down economic activity to slow the virus would be more damaging than doing nothing at all.
Eventually the White House released models suggesting that letting the virus spread unchecked could kill as many as 2.2 million Americans, in line with the projections of other epidemiologists. Trump backed off his calls for an early reopening, extending guidelines on social distancing through the end of April. But his essential argument remained: that in the coronavirus pandemic, there is an agonizing trade-off between saving the economy and saving lives.
Evidence from research, however, shows that this is a false dichotomy. The best way to limit the economic damage will be to save as many lives as possible.
farmlad,
Vaccine expected in 18 months, treatments likely earlier, also testing can be ramped up, if the federal government was run by someone who was competent, that might happen by Jan 21, 2021.
Or one can hope.
Finally finding a little of what I was waiting for so long. Total deaths of all causes in a Covid area.
https://tinyurl.com/slweqw5
With [moderate degree] social distancing measures in place in the USA, the exponential growth rate of death can be seen looking at national data march 28th 2,000 deaths. This grew 10 fold to 20,000 deaths in 13 days (April10th).
Consider if no restriction measures had been put in place by the mayors and governors of this country.
The exponential growth would roll on and likely accelerate until some barrier to further spread (like running out of humans or widespread vaccine) occurred.
But even if it didn’t accelerate, without restrictive measures the same trend would have resulted in 200,000 deaths by April 23rd, and 2,000,000 deaths by May 6th.
Happy Mothers Day the next weekend.
Digest that.
Trump got lucky very few of the state and local leaders followed his “leadership”!
[#massiveleadershipfailure]
To get a glimpse of how tough this whole deal will be in poor areas of the world, take in this 2 minute video from Kenya
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/15/kenya-africa-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-sevenzo-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn
Thousands converge on Lansing to protest Whitmer’s stay home order
LANSING — Demonstrators drove thousands of vehicles — many draped with protest signs — to Michigan’s state Capitol Wednesday, loudly protesting Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home order intended to fight the coronavirus pandemic.
Police watched as horns honked and commercial and private vehicles from around the state jammed Capitol Avenue and other streets surrounding Michigan’s seat of government.
“Liberty once lost is lost forever,” read a sign draped across a commercial van. “Security without liberty is called prison,” read another, stretched across the Capitol’s front lawn. “Recall Whitmer,” a third sign said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/thousands-converge-on-lansing-to-protest-whitmers-stay-home-order/ar-BB12G9b1?ocid=spartanntp
If the IRS would be sending every american $2000 every month then this would not be happening. Even the simplest of people will put themselves into a lot of danger to save their livelihoods. Too many of the commentators on this site are setting well financially and do not realize how many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and are in danger of loosing their homes and vehicles and all if this situation continues for a few more months or even weeks. This situation of the precariat class is why TRUMP is our president today. Hillary said the economy is good and Trump said we need to bring our jobs back and make America great again. This is the reason so many rust belt states flipped red.
Too many of the commentators on this site are setting well financially and do not realize how many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck
Both the people on this site, and the people who disagree with Trump on reopening in general, just disagree that reopening would be good for low income people. That’s all.
This situation of the precariat class is why TRUMP is our president today. Hillary said the economy is good and Trump said we need to bring our jobs back and make America great again.
That’s roughly true, but it could be misleading.
First, the biggest economic problem for working people is low wages. Obama’s economic recovery didn’t help that, because right wing policies keep wages down: low minimum wage, crippled unions, etc.
Second, the economic recovery was due to Bush and Obama policies, not Trump.
3rd, it’s true that Hilary didn’t realize that low unemployment would help the core problem of low wages, but most people don’t pay enough attention to that. Certainly not Republicans.
4th, Republicans and Trump are only hurting the working poor. Nuthin but hurt. Trump did promise to help them, and broke that promise, in every way.
Trump told testing is key to reopening during business panel call
In the first phone call convened between President Donald Trump and some members of his newly formed business council, industry leaders reiterated to the President what public health experts and governors have been telling him for weeks: that there would need to be guarantees of ramped-up coronavirus testing before people return to work, according to one person briefed on the discussions.
Many of Trump’s conservative allies have encouraged him to listen to advice from business leaders, hoping their recommendations on reopening parts of the country will counterbalance the advice of public health experts such as Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, who convinced Trump to extend social distancing guidelines by another month at the start of April.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-told-testing-is-key-to-reopening-during-business-panel-call/ar-BB12GnJd?ocid=spartanntp
Interesting simulations of an epidemic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
And there is this one for us simple folks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ2NMD3VWio
——
edit by PP:
Here is my contribution
+1
A new non-petroleum post is up:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/eias-electric-power-monthly-march-2020-edition-with-data-for-january-2020/
Please start any new discussion about matters not related to oil and gas production under that post. Thank you.