The Texas Rail Road Commission has just released their Oil & Gas Production Data through May. There are four categories of data, Crude, Condensate, Gas Well Gas and Casinghead Gas. Casinghead gas is what most folks call Associated Gas. That is gas that comes up with the oil in oil wells.
On all oil charts the July Report has data through May 2014 and is in barrels per day. Also the last month, May in this case, is always exaggerated on the low side. That is the data is incomplete back to about two years. But the last month is always far more incomplete than the previous months.
This data is of course incomplete but even from the incomplete data we can get an idea of the average monthly increase. I calculate that Texas Crude only is increasing at about 40,000 barrels per day per month.
Texas C+C, which is what the EIA measures, I calculate, to be increasing at about 40,000 barrels per day per month.
The EIA data here is through April while the RRC data is through May. As the Texas RRC data is incomplete, the EIA estimates what it will be when all the data is finally in. They estimate that Texas C+C inreased by 49,000 bp/d in April and 48,000 barrels per day every month for the previous 7 months prior to April.
What they appear to be doing is taking the average increase for the previous year, prior to July 2013, and assuming that increase will hold. I don’t think it will at all. Due to the decline in condensate, and perhaps other causes, Texas C+C appears to be increasing at about 40,000 bp/d, or perhaps a little less. And that increase is declining.
All Texas Gas data is in thousand cubic feet per day with the last data point May 2014. Also keep in mind that the RRC gas production numbers are incomplete also.
Texas Gas Well gas has clearly peaked. However that peak may be due to the price of gas rather than geology. Drillers are clearly losing money on gas so they have cut back quite dramatically on drilling for gas only. As of this writing, the price of natural gas is is $3.79 per million BTU. Horizontal multiple fracked wells need about twice that to break even.
Texas Casinghear Gas, or Associated Gas, obviously has not peaked. As long as long as crude oil production keeps increasing then associated gas production will also keep increasing.
Texas total gas appears to have peaked also. It is unlikely that production will reach the point it reached in June 2013. That is however, unless the price of gas doubles soon.
I posted earlier of Landman, who lives and worked most of his life in the Permian. He sent me the Oil Report from the Midland Reporter-Telegram newspaper. In that oil report there is a section for “Completions” which were completions for that week. Some of the completions were pretty good but most were pitiful. Here are the first 20 listed. They list Barrels of oil, Gas in MCF, and Barrels of Water, per day in that order. I have not picked the worst wells out but listed the very first 20 wells in the order they appeared in the paper.
BO MCF BW 191 435 311 12 55 15 182 187 320 170 72 1162 7 4 32 110 81 2269 2 28 228 110 40 163 12 1 271 2 349 38 14 169 275 315 3052 170 149 1132 330 358 1230 372 277 2622 517 769 1142 883 1291 112 56 1579 65 472 25 545
Energy and Capital has been pumping the Permian to the high heavens for many months now. They call it “The Petroplex”. I just don’t see it. I don’t understand how those Permian drillers are even breaking even.