Light Tight Oil – Page 3 – Peak Oil Barrel

US July Oil Production Rises on Texas & GOM Jump

10/04/202310/04/2023 Ovi 147 Comments

By Ovi

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to July 2023.

U.S. July oil production increased by 91 kb/d to 12,991 kb/d. The large increase was primarily due to a 73 kb/d increase in the GOM and a 72 kb/d increase in Texas.

The dark blue graph, taken from the September 2023 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from August 2023 to December 2024. Output for December 2024 is expected to be 13,457 kb/d which is 457 kb/d higher than the November 2019 peak of 13,000 kb/d.

STEO and Tight Oil Update, September 2023

09/27/202309/27/2023 D Coyne 160 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early September. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

OPEC Update, September 2023

09/19/202309/19/2023 D Coyne 264 Comments

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is August 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output.

STEO and Tight Oil Update, July 2023

07/26/202307/26/2023 D Coyne 228 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early July. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.

This month we have actual EIA data for 2023Q1 which increases the annual rate of increase for the forecast period compared to last month by 600 kb/d, part of the reason is an 800 kb/d forecasted drop in output from Q1 to Q2 of 2023. If we use the 2023Q1 to 2024Q4 trend the annual rate of increase is 911 kb/d, about a 100 kb/d increase from last month’s estimate. The trend from 2022Q1 to 2024Q4 is similar at about 916 kb/d. If this forecast through 2024Q4 is roughly correct, I expect increases in output after 2024 will be considerably lower, I also think this STEO forecast is optimistic. Annual average output in 2022 was 80.74 Mb/d and increases to 81.4 Mb/d in 2023 and to 82.6 Mb/d in 2024. These annual averages are 0.25 Mb/d less in 2023 and similar for 2024 as last month’s estimates.

STEO and Tight Oil Update, June 2023

06/26/202306/29/2023 D Coyne 297 Comments

The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early June. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.