STEO
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early December. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
Tag: EIA
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook and Tight Oil Update, November 2023
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early November. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output.
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised lower in November compared to September (we skipped the October STEO). World C+C output is expected to decrease in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023 and then increase over the next 5 quarters. Annual average World C+C output increases by about 1028 kb/d Mb/d in 2023 to 81804 kb/d and then to 82555 kb/d in 2024, about 445 kb/d below the centered 12 month average peak in 2018. This month’s World C+C estimates are about 400 kb/d lower than September’s estimate for 2023 and 1150 kb/d lower for 2024 due to the revisions in the STEO forecast since Sept 2023.
Read MoreUS August Oil Production at Record High
By Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to August 2023.
U.S. August oil production increased by 94 kb/d to 13,053kb/d, a new record high by 53 kb/d over November 2019. The increase was primarily due to increases in Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota. Note that July production was revised down from 12,991 kb/d to 12,959 kb/d, which accounts for 32 kb/d of the 94 kb/d August increase.
Read MoreOPEC Upate October 2023 and EIA International Energy Outlook 2023
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for October 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is September 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the blue line with markers is monthly output and the thin red line is the centered twelve month average (CTMA) output. The charts for the International Energy Outlook (IEO) will report crude plus condensate (C+C) output with annual output estimates up to 2035.
June Non-OPEC and World Oil Production
By Ovi
This month’s report is a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.
Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last four months was used to project June, July and August production for a few countries.
World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.
The October STEO is projecting June Non-OPEC oil production to increase by 1,069 kb/d to 51,079 kb/d. Close to 500 kb/d of that increase is associated with the upward revision of Russian output from last month. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.
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