Africa In Peril

This is a special post by Ron Patterson. Please limit all comments to the subject matter of this post.

Era of ‘Biological Annihilation’ Is Underway, Scientists Warn

From the common barn swallow to the exotic giraffe, thousands of animal species are in precipitous decline, a sign that an irreversible era of mass extinction is underway, new research finds.

The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, calls the current decline in animal populations a “global epidemic” and part of the “ongoing sixth mass extinction” caused in large measure by human destruction of animal habitats. The previous five extinctions were caused by natural phenomena.

The wildlife decline in most of the world is terrible, but in Africa it is catastrophic. By 2100 there will be no megafauna whatsoever in Africa. All elephants, giraffes, rhinoceroses, lions, gorillas, chimpanzees, and even zebras and wildebeest will be totally extinct. And the culprit in this huge animal extinction is Africa’s massive overpopulation problem. It is terrible today but is about to get a whole lot worse.

The population of Africa, in 2016, was 1.22 billion. The UN estimates that in 2100 the population of Africa will be about 4.45 billion. Notice that is an increase of about 300 million from their estimate just five years ago. But their 2100 population estimate has doubled since theit 1998 estimate.

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International Rig Count Still Falling

The Baker Hughes International Rig Count is out. I have decided to try something new with the charts. That is to compare the current year’s rig count with the previous two years count and to insert, within the charts, the percent change for this year as compared to last year. Also, this is the total rig count, Oil and Gas. Also the charts are not zero based. I do this in order to better emphasize the monthly change.

July usually sees a big jump in rig counts. This year there was a very tiny July increase, only a fraction of the increase we usually see for July.

Rig Count Total International

*The Total International rig counts does not include the USA, Canada or the FSU. The Total International rig count was down 28 in July to 1118. Last July it was up3 to 1344.


Rig Count Middle East
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Is Peak Oil Waiting for Godot?

Waiting for Godot was a two act play by Samuel Beckett where two men kept waiting for Godot and they just kept waiting and waiting and waiting… And no, I don’t think we will be kept waiting and waiting like the characters in that play. Peak oil is about to arrive, in my opinion anyway.

Way back in 2005 we thought it likely that crude oil production had peaked at just under 74 million barrels per day. During the preceding three years C+C production had risen by 6,481,000 barrels per day or 2,160,333 barrels per day per year. The reason for that dramatic increase was a doubling in the price of oil from $25 per barrel in 2002 to $54.43 in 2005.

So oil production depends, to a great extent, the price of oil. The more money the more oil. However…  The C+C data in all charts below are in thousand barrels per day.

Brent Price Vx. Production

 You can see that another doubling of Brent oil price in the next 8 years brought only 2,283,000 bp/d of new oil on line, or an average of 285,375 bp/d per year.

So where did the increase in C+C come from between 2002 and 2005, and where has it come from since.

Change Since 2002

You can see the major addition to World C+C between 2002 and 2005 was from Eurasia, (FSU) the Middle East and Africa. The only major decline was from Europe, primarily the North Sea. Since 2005 the major gainers were North America followed by the Middle East and Eurasia, which we used to refer to as FSU. But 8 years is a long time, what has happened during those 8 years.
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