EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook

The EIA has just released its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Some of their projections should be taken with a grain of salt because they usually change every month. Nevertheless…

All US production is Crude + Condensate. All other production numbers are total liquids. The data is in million barrels per day.


The EIA has US production leveling out at just under 8.8 million bpd until Oct. 2017.

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Texas Update- November 2016

Edit 12/2/2016, 8:30 AM EST. A corrected chart for correction factors below and a new chart added.


The railroad commission of Texas released September output data a few weeks ago and Dean Fantazzini made an estimate of the “corrected” data for crude plus condensate (C+C) and natural gas. Last month he found there had been a structural change in the data in March and provided a new estimate using only the most recent 3 months of data, I chose to use the most recent 6 months of data instead.

This month I will present the old estimate (labelled “all”) using all vintage data (dating back to April 2014) as well as the 6 month and 3 month estimate, which use the most recent 6 months and 3 months of data respectively. Continue reading

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Projection Of World Fossil Fuel URR


An interesting paper was published by S.H. Mohr, J. Wang , G. Ellem , J. Ward , and D. Giurco in Feb 2015 entitled, Projection of world fossil fuels by country. It updates Steve Mohr’s earlier work in 2010 and can be found at the link below.


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