World Crude Plus Condensate and Conventional Oil


The EIA recently updated its International Petroleum statistics.  World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output was 80,577 kb/d in Feb 2017 an increase of 72 kb/d from the previous month, this was 1695 kb/d below the monthly peak output of 82,273 kb/d in November 2016. The most recent 12 month average (centered on August/September 2016) was 80,501 kb/d, 3 kb/d less than the previous most recent 12 month’s output. The 12 month centered average peak output was 80,574 kb/d in June/July 2016 as previously predicted by Ron Patterson and currently the 12 month average output is 73 kb/d below the peak. Continue reading

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Texas Update, May 2017


The Chart above compares several different combinations of past (vintage) data to estimate output. The dotted line is based on the most recent 8 months (August 2016 to March 2017) of data saved from the RRC website, the blue solid line is based on the past 12 months of data, and the yellow line is based on the most recent 3 months of data. Continue reading

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OPEC April Production Data

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through April 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

Looking at the above chart it seems obvious what most OPEC nations were doing. They announced in the summer of 2016 that there would likely be quota cuts beginning in 2017. And those cuts would be a percentage of their current production. So everyone began making heroic attempts to increase production by the end of 2016. So now, after everyone who felt that they should cut, has cut, they are right back to the level that they were at before the cuts were proposed.

I wrote the above paragraph last month. I see no reason to change a word of it now.

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