286 thoughts to “Open Thread, July 4, 2018”

    1. Maybe 7 percent of Americans have a sense of humor.

      I wonder how many Americans believe the results of surveys. 🙂

      1. I realize you are having trouble believing that Fish, but many people are really that dumb. It could be that many people had such things told to them as a child, as a joke, by an authority figure that they believed. And when children put their faith in authority figures, they believe what they say. And that is true especially if they are not very bright.

        Most of everything people believe they believe on the authority of others.

        1. R Patt, you seem to believe in people’s beliefs and in limited surveys. Facts are better.
          Take a look at the National Gallup poll asking Americans if they believe in God. Guess what, 79% said they did and 10 percent said they weren’t sure.
          Does that mean that 79% of Americans believe in God?
          Nope, it means that of the 1085 people who responded to the poll about 857 said they believed in God.
          So all we really know is that 0.00024% of Americans say they believe in God. That is the fact, that a small amount of people said they believed in God and then the pollsters and media said a huge amount believe in God without almost all of them ever getting a say in the matter.
          Yet other polls say about 20 percent or less regularly attend church, even though over 40 percent are actual members of some recognized church. So statements about belief do not match at all with reality as stated by polls.

          We have, according to surveys, about half the people believing that climate change is human caused. Do we have half the people acting on reducing climate change?
          Nope. We have 99 percent increasing climate change.

          So what’s a few chocolate producing cows, compared to God and Climate Change? Hardly anyone seems to act on their stated beliefs, they mostly just do what they like to do and what they need to do to survive.

          So a few people who can read and have computers and like to fill out a survey said they think chocolate milk comes from brown cows. That proves it for all the rest.

          Next people will believe in statistics.
          Fact: From 1960 to 2004 membership in the Roman Catholic Church in the US rose by 66.4 million (+59%)
          Statistic: that same membership fell by 1.4% per 1000 US population over that time
          Did the membership fall or increase? Did the increase in population come from a different mix of religious backgrounds than before? Lots of questions to affect the statistic but only one fact remains, the church membership increased by 66.4 million in that time period.

          The question was never asked how many of those Catholics really believe in God or even chocolate milk?

          Of course people who don’t believe in surveys or polls never take them. And no one knows the veracity of the answers on any questionnaire.

          So what do we know from a questionnaire? We know that at that time, place and under those conditions a person answered a set of specific questions using answers that were provided with no recourse to asking the meaning of those questions or giving other answers.

          1. Yet other polls say about 20 percent or less regularly attend church, even though over 40 percent are actual members of some recognized church. So statements about belief do not match at all with reality as stated by polls.

            Nonsense. You are assuming that if one does not attend church then they must be lying when they say they believe in God. By what logic did you arrive at that conclusion? Millions of people believe in God who never go to church. I, myself, am a deist. And I never go to church. I think all religion is bullshit.

            Logic:
            All pigs are animals.
            All animals are not pigs.
            Most people who go to church believe in God.
            All people who believe in God do not go to church.

            Anyway, 87.3% of all statistics are just made up. 😉

            1. My point was clear, people often do not follow their beliefs or only show lip service to them. Also surveys are under collected and over-extrapolated.
              The inferences about my saying someone is lying and I came to some other conclusion is only in your own mind, not mine.

              Your little lesson in “logic” just proves my point. Though what’s bacon got to do with it or is the pig thing just another of your slurs?

    2. “Hey, diddle, diddle,”
      BY MOTHER GOOSE
      Hey, diddle, diddle,
      The cat and the fiddle,
      The cow jumped over the moon;
      The little dog laughed
      To see such sport,
      And the dish ran away with the spoon.

      1. Cats In The Cradle

        “My child arrived just the other day
        He came to the world in the usual way
        But there were planes to catch and bills to pay
        He learned to walk while I was away…”

    3. Trump is a distraction

      “And I have it on good authority that every one of them voted for Trump.” ~ Ron Patterson

      I am wondering if some did both on a lark and/or out of such feelings like utter disillusionment and/or contempt for the system and poll questions like that.

      And don’t forget culture jamming.

      …But is it a bit like giving a baby or adolescent a loaded gun and the freedom to use it more or less at will. I mean, so-called ‘government’ is a ‘social technology’, yes?

      So who’s running it?

      Have the ‘adolescents’ taken it over?

      BTW, this is how the brown cows acquire their milk’s wonderful sweetness: Sweetgrass.

      “Soldiers[/police] are dumb, stupid animals for the conduct of foreign[/national/local] policy.” ~ Henry Kissinger, [my additions in brackets]

      1. Why would someone with an IQ over 80 be willing to join up as an enlisted man?

  1. BTW, read this. You really can’t make this shit up! The current US president defies any and all attempts to define what is or is not normal anymore. He has to be one of the the most ignorant and arrogant imbeciles to have ever walked the planet.

    https://www.apnews.com/a3309c4990ac4581834d4a654f7746ef/US-official:-Trump-pressed-aides-about-Venezuela-invasion

    BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — As a meeting last August in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions on Venezuela was concluding, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can’t the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?

    The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, both of whom have since left the administration. This account of the previously undisclosed conversation comes from a senior administration official familiar with what was said.

    Go ahead! Read the rest of the article and tell me the US isn’t doomed with this idiot at the helm.

    …Then in September, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Trump discussed it again, this time at greater length, in a private dinner with leaders from four Latin American allies that included Santos, the same three people said and Politico reported in February.

    The U.S. official said Trump was specifically briefed not to raise the issue and told it wouldn’t play well, but the first thing the president said at the dinner was, “My staff told me not to say this.” Trump then went around asking each leader if they were sure they didn’t want a military solution, according to the official, who added that each leader told Trump in clear terms they were sure.

    Eventually, McMaster would pull aside the president and walk him through the dangers of an invasion, the official said.

      1. Kelly is leaving because Trump will not listen to his advice anymore. Trump is a wild card. He actually believes he is a genius and knows more about everything than anyone else. We were screwed the day Trump took the oath of office.

        1. “Trump is a wild card. He actually believes he is a genius and knows more about everything than anyone else.”

          Hmmm? That brings back memories of another world leader I read about in a book I got half way through in 1979 in my last year of high school. The book was “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” by William L. Shirer.

        2. I’m sure most presidents come in with basic intelligence and are surrounded by a cadre of advisors to help fill in the blanks. This doesn’t describe the current situation.

    1. All the Trump bashing does get old after awhile. And no I’m not saying you don’t have a right to do it, because I do realize there are many types of political opinions out there for everyone to have. However you should be mindful there are tens of millions of us out here who are quite proud of our president and his leadership in these somewhat heated times, politically speaking.

      As for your article in question you quoted, I will need explanation of what the problem really is. One of the big roles of the president is commander in chief, so that means using our powerful military to invade countries if we have to. Obviously, Venezuela didn’t meat the “have to” threshold, but the president should have options open to him as well as intelligent advisors he can consult, which is what appears he did here to make another smart decision.

      On another note, I’d like to wish you and yours a Happy July 4th!

      1. However you should be mindful there are tens of millions of us out here who are quite proud of our president and his leadership in these somewhat heated times

        And you should be mindful that there are many more tens of millions of us out here that realize you and Trump are FruitLoops.

      2. “…didn’t meat the “have to” threshold…” Really?

        “Some hae meat and canna eat, And some would eat that want it; But we hae meat, and we can eat, And sae the Lord be thankit.”

      3. Venezuela didn’t meat the “have to” threshold,…

        studebaker-driver, do you think chocolate milk comes from brown cows?

      4. As for your article in question you quoted, I will need explanation of what the problem really is. One of the big roles of the president is commander in chief, so that means using our powerful military to invade countries if we have to. Obviously, Venezuela didn’t meat the “have to” threshold, but the president should have options open to him as well as intelligent advisors he can consult, which is what appears he did here to make another smart decision.

        Seriously?! That fact that you say you will need explanation of what the problem really is, does not bode very well with regards your understanding of what the president can and cannot do let alone how international relations work.

        First, he wantonly disregarded his advisers advice after they specifically told him not to bring up the issue at a private dinner . He actually told Latin American Leaders that his staff specifically told him not to bring up the subject! Do you not even get how bad that makes him and his administration look?!

        You do realize that there is such a thing as International Law?! The US does not exist in an international vacuum.

        Attacking a sovereign state without the cooperation of its government and UN approval is a violation of international law!

        If you don’t think there are any consequences to breaking International Law, maybe check and see what the international community has done to Russia.

        1. Well, it does say in the article that our dear leader thought that we had success with previous “gunboat diplomacy”. Since he has shown such brilliant understanding of history in the past he must be right about that too.

          Sarc.

          Think about this. In November there will be an election. The Senate is 51/49 dominated by Republicans who have proven to be perfect tools of the Trump administration. There are twelve Senate races that are considered “tossup” by at least one major pollster. Six have Democratic incumbents, all of those are in states that Trump won in 2016.

          What will you do between now and November to turn the Senate? If you are a US citizen and your answer is “sit here and bitch about it” you are part of the problem.

          1. Well, this Canadian would like to thank Trump for one thing. He has single-handedly brought our Country together with his tariffs. There is a visceral hate for him on this side of the border. Many are looking forward to pulling 900,000 bbl/day out of the US supply chain when the Trans Mountain expansion comes on line for the Asian market.

            But I am also feeling proud of myself…and my older sister. We had a long phone conversation today (she lives on Camano Island WA) and we did not mention Trump or politics once. As the conversation drew to a close I told her to pat herself on the back for it. I had been thinking about suggesting her kids emigrate, but didn’t. They range: 39, 41, and 43. I just kept my mouth shut.

            1. Hi Paulo,

              Back when the hot environmental debate was all about the Keystone Pipeline, I made my case that it was a serious mistake on the part of the USA to cancel that construction work, because ONE, it would never result in the world using less oil………

              It was perfectly obvious that the Canadian people, and or at least their political leadership, would soon go for the money, and if the only way to get that money was to build longer pipelines, at greater expense, right across the country, then the pipelines to ports to sell to Asia and maybe eventually to the rest of the world as well, WOULD BE built…..

              How long will it be till the Trans Mountain work is finished?

              If the Keystone had been built as planned, we Yankees would be in a much stronger position, in the event of a real world powers showdown.

              The D’s and the green camp should have used their clout to extract a few bucks from the oil industry, say a billion or two, and used it to buy up privately owned land and add it to the country’s park system.

              THAT would have been a positive result.

        2. As somebody commented at The Times – he’s absolutely Caracas.

    2. I’m just surprised he hasn’t screwed to pooch already.

      NAOM

    1. Great question, but Of course it was Trump. Question is, will it matter to the Trumpists that they paid this woman 1.6 million just last year to keep quiet about an abortion?

      Trumpists really are full of shit “pro-life” except for their mistresses. They really have completely lost all moral standing and just stand for child molester’s, wife beater’s, and racists.

  2. Hey, I have to post this link again. This explains why all the megafauna in Africa is doomed. And it explains why the population of the earth will continue until total collapse. People who still think the world’s population will just naturally stop growing are just naturally wrong.

    Thanks again to Gone-Fishing for this link.

    Overpopulation: Paul Beckwith

    1. This explains why all the megafauna in Africa is doomed

      Yep, but then to add insult to injury we now have proof positive that rich American women are definitely no better than the men… Guns don’t kill rare animals, rich American women do and then claim it’s for conservation. I’m going to bet she is not a conservation biologist!

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44697112

      1. I find the perspective on this fascinating. Millions of people angry and threatening the life of that nasty woman. Yet who is angry at the guides and their business that happily led her there for the purpose of killing that animal? Who is angry at the government that made laws that allow and encourage that business?
        Is the drug dealer more implicated or the drug user?

        1. Yeah, ok, but all that aside, I’m still left with the following nagging question!

          What kind of a fucking pathetic piece of shit person, be it a man or a woman, has a life long dream of going out into the wilderness to kill such a magnificent creature, with a rifle.

        2. The response is disproportionate. Yes, it’s awful–but any better than the billions of livestock we yearly condemn to death?

          The woman is being scapegoated for a depravity each and every one of us apes possesses in spades.

          1. Nonsense! Cows are not an endangered species, giraffes are. That bitch deserves all the criticism that she is getting.

            Most giraffe species are currently endangered

            According to the Giraffe Conservation Foundation, there were an estimated 140,000 giraffes in African in 1999, but the number has declined to less than 80,000 giraffes today.

            Researchers are working to get a more accurate count of the giraffe population but describe all giraffes in all parts of the African continent as either decreasing in number or unstable. The declining numbers are due largely to poaching, habitat loss, human population growth and degradation of the giraffe’s habitat. Two subspecies of giraffe have populations of less than 250 animals, including the West African giraffe and the Nubian giraffe. Around half of the giraffes in Africa today are Masai giraffes.

          2. The woman is being scapegoated for a depravity each and every one of us apes possesses in spades.

            Yes, humans can be depraved but that isn’t what this is about. I don’t even think she is depraved. I just don’t get the mindset, it is too foreign for me to comprehend!

            I haven’t eaten red meat in decades! I have spearfished but only to put dinner on my table. I can’t imagine killing anything just to put a trophy on my wall.

        3. If there were no rich Americans or Europeans who want to kill animals for fun there would be no guides to lead them to their prey. The villains here are not the guides who are just trying to make a living but the rich bitch who just loves to kill for fun.

          1. If there were no rich Americans or Europeans who want to kill animals for fun there would be no guides to lead them to their prey.

            To be fair there are probably some rich Chinese who still think rhinoceros horns have aphrodisiac powers… Not to mention the illegal elephant ivory trade. Oh and shark fin soup anyone?

            The problem is stupid arrogant humans who have no understanding and respect for their place in the natural world!

          2. Now available on Netflix, ‘Beatriz at Dinner’ speaks eloquently to this.

    2. Meanwhile,

      ONE FOOTBALL PITCH OF FOREST LOST EVERY SECOND IN 2017

      The scale of tree destruction, much of it done illegally, poses a grave threat to tackling both climate change and the massive global decline in wildlife. The loss in 2017 recorded by Global Forest Watch was 29.4m hectares, the second highest recorded since the monitoring began in 2001.

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2018/jun/27/one-football-pitch-of-forest-lost-every-second-in-2017-data-reveals

      1. Keep in mind the World Cup is increasing from 32 total teams to 48 in 2026. To field that many elite national teams in the future, the youth of today require more practice pitches where they can improve their skills.

    3. When I saw the video the other day, I thought the name sounded familiar. Then I remembered:

      He made hyperbolic claims about the jet stream making a “rare transit” across the equator:

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/03/man-behind-claim-that-jet-stream-made-rare-equator-transit-responds-to-criticism/?noredirect=on

      I’m not saying this necessarily makes him wrong about the population issue, but, as with the peak oil alarmism I subscribed to ten years ago, “once burned, twice shy.”

      1. Hey, just as the population alarmists in the 60s did not anticipate the Green Revolution, the peak oil folks in 2005 or so did not anticipate shale oil or the creaming of giant fields.

        If the green revolution had not happened there would have been widespread famine by 1975. Likewise, if shale oil had not come upon the scene and all those giant fields had not been creamed, we would have had peak oil in 2005.

        As to Beckwith’s population data, he simply uses the currently available data along with logic, reason and common sense. If you see a flaw in his reasoning, please point that out to us. But I assure you it has nothing to do with the jet stream.

        1. I’m in agreement. But, to paraphrase Feynman, “There’s no one easier to fool than ourselves.” As my default mode is doom, (probably from studying literature rather than science in my youth), I’m very careful that I’m not in the presence of an anglerfish.

        2. Bechwith is right on, if the data is correct.
          He has been a little down on his last few presentations.
          Human ignorance and folly are taking their toll.

        3. The father of the green revolution was at least partially motivated by concern about population problems in Mexico and elsewhere.

          “Norman Borlaug – Wikipedia
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug

          In his Nobel Lecture of 1970, Borlaug stated, “Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the ‘Population Monster’ … If it continues to increase at the estimated present rate of two percent a year, the world population will reach 6.5 billion by the year 2000.”

          1. Thanks, Dr. Wilson for this great post and link. Yes, the population explosion is a monster that now numbers 7.6 billion. That is way, way, far more than the world can support, long-term. This population monster will eventually destroy civilization as we know it. Pity that there is so much denial of this fact.

          2. Perhaps Norman Borlaug understood that Thomas Malthus was mostly right.

  3. flash flood warning for houston metro—
    (a place not too many humans should be living)

  4. A BIT OF TRIVIA:

    Air conditioning pumps out heat straight into the atmosphere taking heat from inside a building (or car), then transferring it to the outside. That extra heat makes cities hotter, raising night-time temperatures by up to 2C, which then encourages people to turn up their air conditioning higher. So, as the air grows hotter there’s more need to stay cool. It’s a vicious circle.

    Of course A/Cs run off electricity and roughly 63% of this electricity (in the US) comes from fossil fuels — coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other gases. There’s growing concern that as other countries adopt America’s love of air-conditioners, electricity used to power them will overburden electrical grids and increase planet-warming emissions.

    1. Same old same old. Increase insulation and use renewable energy to provide the power for any needed air conditioning. Better yet, get rid of stupid build cities.
      You can bet that as the tropics heat up and wet bulb temps reach near human limits in the near future, air conditioning will be used at a much higher rate. Yes, the air conditioning moves water vapor outside also, making it more humid outside.
      Then add lots of hydrogen powered cars on a hot humid day. Guess what? The humidity zooms in the city.
      Almost as deadly as a London “fog”.

      1. Trouble with insulation is that air-con tends to get designed for poor insulation and gets over-rated as happened to mine. I have been looking for lower power wall units but most seem to be ton and up. 🙁 What is needed is a combination of insulation and lower power units.

        NAOM

          1. Well, dawg gone! But have they thought about the problems of disease and parasite transmission?

            NAOM

        1. Most units can be set low power use and set to intermittent operation which uses a lot less power.
          Why not just adapt a refrigerator unit for cooling if you don’t need much? They don’t use much power.

          1. It will be a few years before I need to install so I have plenty of time to look around. Inverter systems seem promising. Old fridge sounds a bit gnarly and I have doubts it would fit my needs. For example, condensation is a BIG issue in the tropics and the drain pipes look more like taps running.

            NAOM

    2. Americans need lots of air conditioning because they build neighborhoods that look like this one in Phoenix AZ:

      https://goo.gl/maps/kwa5tUr6dSP2

      This maximizes the exposure to the sun. A more sensible approach is shown in Seville, Andalusia:

      https://goo.gl/maps/ZkVcmHEyw1G2

      Narrow streets and multiple stories minimize the insolation per square meter of living space, which reduces the need for air conditioning.

  5. MORE TRIVIA

    Roughly 27% of China is covered in desert. Dunes are forming just 44 miles from Beijing, and estimates put the Gobi’s crawl south toward the capital at a pace of two miles per year. This expansion eats away at space that was once fit for agriculture and creates unbridled sandstorms that batter cities near the edge of the desert. In May, one such storm enveloped one million square miles of northern China in dust. Combining with Beijing’s industrial pollution, the city’s air quality index shot to a peak of 621, a rating classified as “beyond index.” For context, levels above 200 are ranked by the US embassy as “very unhealthy,” while readings between 301 to 500 are labeled “hazardous.”

  6. IS THIS A BRAINWAVE?

    BRAIN SCANS REVEAL BURSTS OF HIGH FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS DURING MOMENTS OF INSIGHT

    “Studying how insight arises in the brain is a challenge, but NSF-funded cognitive neuroscientist John Kounios and his colleague Mark Beeman developed a task that allows them to study insight in the laboratory. Volunteers were asked to solve dozens of word puzzles while their brains were scanned with EEG or fMRI. One puzzle was an anagram, which requires the formation of a new word from a set of letters (LISTEN = SILENT is an anagram). Subjects pressed a button the moment they became aware of the solution to the anagram and reported whether the solution came in a flash of insight or through a more deliberate strategy. For puzzles that were solved with insight, the researchers observed a unique pattern of neural activity.”

    When a student, many many moons ago, we were frequently assigned sets of intractable (to me) math problems. My way of dealing with this was to read through these problems before going to bed (usually with Bach playing in the background). In the morning I would wake up and write out the solutions which my brain had solved during sleep. This almost never failed. Sitting on the side of my bed while writing out the answers came with an inexplicable feeling of tranquility as if my consciousness had entered a higher (than normal) state. I’ve no idea if this is common or not. I do have a mild dyslexia issue and I was told many years later that music would somehow facilitate complex problem solving, which (in my case) is true. Sorry for the OFM style rambling.

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-07-brain-scans-reveal-high-frequency.html

    1. Sleep on it, but only if it is difficult: Effects of sleep on problem solving

      Abstract

      Previous research has shown that performance on problem solving improves over a period of sleep, as compared with wakefulness. However, these studies have not determined whether sleep is beneficial for problem solving or whether sleep merely mitigates against interference due to an interruption to solution attempts. Sleep-dependent improvements have been described in terms of spreading activation, which raises the prediction that an effect of sleep should be greater for problems requiring a broader solution search. We presented participants with a set of remote-associate tasks that varied in difficulty as a function of the strength of the stimuli–answer associations. After a period of sleep, wake, or no delay, participants reattempted previously unsolved problems. The sleep group solved a greater number of difficult problems than did the other groups, but no difference was found for easy problems. We conclude that sleep facilitates problem solving, most likely via spreading activation, but this has its primary effect for harder problems.

      https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13421-012-0256-7

  7. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-03/watch-greenpeace-crashes-superman-drone-nuclear-power-plant-expose-facilitys
    Admiral Rickover’s Life’s big regret was his role in building the Nuclear Navy. It took Billions of years for Radionucleids to decay to allow DNA coded Carbon based Life on Planet Earth.
    Fukushima was Level 7 event because of Power Failure. There WAS no Plutonium on Planet Earth. Sofar, We are not Ape enough to deal with the simple and mandatory task of containing this destroyer of Lifeforms. The Product of Fission reactors is Doomsday. There is not a more important task.

  8. I’d like to wish a Happy Independence Day to all y’all. Thank you Ron for hosting a place where we can read good information about the energy sector as well as share our thoughts and opinions. God Bless America on this day and every day!

    1. There’s a lot of complaining in America about gas prices, but nobody does much about it. Driving small, fuel efficient cars would be a good start. People drive around in SUVs and pickups and whine about gas prices. It’s a joke. And the sorry-ass excuse that nobody knew price were going to go up doesn’t fit the fact that most of the current fleet was bought when oil prices were higher.

      1. In fact, complaining about any price is usually an indication that you are wasting the resource. Why? Because if the return on you investment is high, you don’t complain about the price.

        Americans complain about the price of gas because they spend a lot of money doing things that should be more or less free, like going to the store to buy a bottle of milk.

  9. Under that world energy post, I had some discussion with Dennis, Gonefishing, Nick about electricity generating cost. In China, coal is still the cheapest. In the US, no doubt coal is one of the most expensive (depends on how it compares with nuclear).

    I did some research and want to follow up on the US generation cost. I used to use a rule of thumb of 10% capital cost to capture everything including depreciation, maintenance, and interest. Dennis said maintenance cost may vary depending on technology. So I have got some information from EIA.

    So first, regarding interest rate or cost of capital, EIA assumes 7% (higher than the 5% I implicitly assumed)

    Second, about depreciation, solar PV is often assumed to have a lifetime of 25 years. But the industry people would argue the panel’s useful life could last much longer. Although some components (inverters, batteries) may have lifetime much shorter. I would assume 30+ year and 3% depreciation rate for now. For wind and natural gas, I don’t have much information. But 3% depreciation rate is probably close to reality. The range should be between 2-4%.

    About maintenance and operation cost, I looked at EIA data from the Electricity Market Module. I won’t give detailed numbers, just approximate % relative to capital cost.

    Natural Gas, advanced combined cycle: Fixed O&M, about 1% capital cost; Variable O&M, less than 1% capital cost (assuming 50% capacity utilization)

    Natural Gas, advanced combustion turbine: Fixed O&M, about 1% capital cost; Variable O&M, about 3.5% capital cost (assuming 25% capacity utilization)

    Wind: Fixed O&M, almost 3% capital cost; no variable O&M

    Solar PV (fixed): Fixed O&M, more than 1% capital cost; no variable O&M

    Observed Capacity Utilization Rates in 2016 (from EIA Electricity Table 1.2 Summary Statistics):

    Natural Gas: 35%
    Wind: 32%
    Solar PV (utility): 18%

    I make the following assumption about capacity utilization rates:

    Natural Gas Combined Cycle (base-load): 50%
    Natural Gas Combustion Turbine (load follower): 25%
    Wind: 35%
    Solar PV: 20%

    With the assumptions clear, we can proceed with the calculations. I will open up another post below

    1. I do not understand some of your assumptions:

      1) A onshore wind farm is a low risk investment (at least in Germany), who pays 7% interest? That is the same as Tesla pays for their bonds. 🙂
      Life insurance companies could offer much better rates. Farmers in Germany (mortgage) get the money for their turbines for <5% .

      2) The 32% CF is a result of old turbines, i.e. age structure of wind power in the USA. Same issue for the 20% in Germany. A modern turbine gets a CF of almsot 40% 150 km onshore in northern Germany, that is mediocre wind area. In the USA I expect with modern turbines a CF >45%.

      3) 8% for depriciation and O&M is quite high. And some of the newest turbines of Enercon are sold with 30 years of production life.

      In the wind belt the costs should be < 4 cents/kWh IMHO, that with low risk.

    2. Prof. M Li
      I really don’t see the point. There is no comparison of cost between wind/solar and fossil fuel burning to provide power until fossil fuel burning can be done without producing CO2 and other pollutants. Then it would be a comparable cost evaluation.

      1. GF, I think you didn’t get the memo that in the infinite growth based neo-liberal classical economic model, waste sinks such as the atmosphere, are for all practical purposes, infinite and there is no cost associated with the dumping of CO2 or other pollutants into them. These are called externalities. You will note that in the classic text book model of this system there is NO waste output let alone a full accounting for the cost to society of such waste. Of course the resource inputs are infinite as well. And we can continue to add 80 million more consumers to this system every year for ever and ever. Capice?!
        .

        1. Thanks for the update Fred. I can be very annoying by pointing out the obvious.
          Three reasons for the failure of economics
          Modern economics believes that the laws of economics govern the laws of nature.
          •Modern economics has devised far too many mechanisms for consuming the future.
          •Modern economics has stripped away all incentive to build individual financial resilience.

          https://oneinabillionblog.com/economics-2/economics/three-reasons-for-the-failure-of-economics/

  10. Now the cost estimates. All capital costs are from EIA’s Electricity Market Module. I will use approximate values only. In each case, the generating capacity is 1GW.

    Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle:
    Capital Cost: 1.1 billion dollars
    Depreciation + Maintenance + Interest: 12% of capital cost = 132 million dollars
    Annual Generation: 8.76 terawatt-hours * 50% = 4.38 terawatt-hours
    Thermal Efficiency (based on the EIA heat rate): 54%
    Thermal Energy: 4.38 terawatt-hours/11.63/0.54 = 0.7 million tons of oil equivalent
    Natural Gas Price: $3 per million btu or $120 per ton of oil equivalent
    Annual Fuel Cost: 0.7 * 120 = 84 million dollars
    Total Annual Cost: 216 million dollars

    Average Cost per kwh: 216 million dollars / 4380 million kwh = $0.049/kwh

    (see posts below for gas turbine, wind, solar)

  11. Natural Gas Advanced Combustion Turbine
    Capital Cost: 700 million dollars
    Depreciation + Maintenance + Interest: 14.5% of capital cost = 102 million dollars
    Annual Generation: 8.76 terawatt-hours * 25% = 2.19 terawatt-hours
    Thermal Efficiency (based on the EIA heat rate): 35%
    Thermal Energy: 2.19 terawatt-hours/11.63/0.35 = 0.54 million tons of oil equivalent
    Natural Gas Price: $3 per million btu or $120 per ton of oil equivalent
    Annual Fuel Cost: 0.54 * 120 = 65 million dollars
    Total Annual Cost: 167 million dollars

    Average Cost per kwh: 167 million dollars / 2190 million kwh = $0.076/kwh

  12. Wind
    Capital Cost: 1.6 billion dollars
    Depreciation + Maintenance + Interest: 13% of capital cost = 208 million dollars
    Annual Generation: 8.76 terawatt-hours * 35% = 3.07 terawatt-hours
    Average Cost per kwh: 208 million dollars / 3070 million kwh = $0.068/kwh

    Solar PV (fixed tilt)
    Capital Cost: 1.8 billion dollars
    Depreciation + Maintenance + Interest: 11% of capital cost = 198 million dollars
    Annual Generation: 8.76 terawatt-hours * 20% = 1.75 terawatt-hours
    Average Cost per kwh: 198 million dollars / 1750 million kwh = $0.113/kwh

    Thus, given the current available information, in the US electricity market, natural gas combined cycle is the cheapest (at least with the current natural gas prices); wind is the second cheapest; and solar is still the most expensive other than coal/nuclear

    Natural Gas turbine is about 1 cent more expensive than wind. But it performs the load following function that neither wind nor solar can perform.

    1. How did you decide what the average generation for PV would be? The annual generation would very widely depending on location, and any accurate analysis would have to take the average annual insolation values for the generating site into account. Same situation with wind and windspeed at 100 m.

      1. “The annual generation would very widely” should say ‘vary’ widely. Pardon.

    2. I would like to suggest that investors in major US PV projects are well aware of the need to be competitive with all other sources of electricity and this is supported by the following article :

      US solar power generation up 33% year-over-year in Q1

      The 33% increase in Q1 2018 generation is more than the 25% year-over-year increase in capacity, suggesting that solar projects are generating more electricity per watt of installed capacity.

      On another note the cost per kWh quoted above is very different from the record low PPAs announced last month, see:

      New PPA In Arizona Locks In Lowest Solar Prices In US As Demise Of Navajo Station Looms

      The lifeblood of Arizona is water. Without it, the Grand Canyon State is just another desert and Phoenix is a dust bowl. Arizona gets its water from the Colorado River. That water is pumped and distributed by the Central Arizona Project, which is the largest user of electricity in the state.

      Navajo Generating Station coal fired plnatOn June 7, the directors of the Project signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with AZ Solar 1, a 30 megawatt (MW) solar power plant. The deal calls for the delivery of 83,500 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity at a the lowest price yet recorded in the US — 2.49 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). This would denote an AC capacity factor of 32%, and a DC capacity factor ranging of anywhere from 19-27% with DC:AC ratios of 1.7 and 1.2, respectively according to Green Tech Media.

      2.49 cents per kWh is the lowest price for solar power in the US to date. PTM reports there is a deal pending in Austin, Texas at 2.1 cents per kWh, but details of that contract have not yet been made public.

      and

      Nevada’s 2.3-Cent Bid Beats Arizona’s Record-Low Solar PPA Price

      Records don’t last long in the cleantech business.

      Just days ago, we were reporting that the Central Arizona Project (CAP) had secured the lowest confirmed solar price in the U.S., when it approved a 20-year power-purchase agreement at $24.99 per megawatt-hour. That’s setting aside an Austin Energy PPA from December that could be lower, but has more ambiguous terms.

      That Arizona record is already under threat from projects that utility NV Energy selected as part of its integrated resource planning. The portfolio of 1,001 megawatts of solar capacity and 100 megawatts/400 megawatt-hours of energy storage still needs approval from Nevada’s utility regulators.

      If that happens, the lowest confirmed U.S. solar price would be Sempra Renewables’ Copper Mountain Solar 5 project at $21.55 per megawatt-hour. That 250-megawatt project, though, has a 2.5 percent annual escalation as part of its 25-year contract, so the low upfront price wouldn’t last.

      Instead, we can turn to 8minutenergy’s 300-megawatt Eagle Shadow Mountain Solar Farm, which clocks in at a flat rate of $23.76 per megawatt-hour throughout its 25-year PPA term.

      That comfortably beats the CAP project on pricing, while delivering 10 times the capacity. It also marks a substantial improvement on the $29.50 per megawatt-hour median pricing for standalone solar PV in Xcel’s famous solicitation six months ago.

      Is there a reasonable explanation for this fairly wide discrepancy?

      1. One reasonable explanation is that Prof Li was using solar production values from an average location, such as Paris or Indianapolis, rather than the upper tier sites like the Mojave Desert.

  13. Norway turns to power imports after dry spring hits hydropower reserves

    OSLO, July 4 (Reuters) – Norway has become a net power importer from Denmark and Sweden this summer, after a warm and dry spring reduced the nation’s hydropower reserves and drove up Norwegian power prices, the grid operator said on Wednesday.

    Norway’s reservoirs have received rainfall in 2018 that is equivalent to 22 terrawatt hours (TWh) less than a normal year, a shortfall equivalent to the energy needs of 1.1 million households, or half of Norway’s population.

    “Most of the imported power comes from Denmark and Sweden, which had a surplus of wind power,” Norway’s state-owned grid Statnett said in a statement, adding that it was the first summer in several years that Norway was a net power importer.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/norway-power-hydro/norway-turns-to-power-imports-after-dry-spring-hits-hydropower-reserves-idUSL8N1U03BV

  14. GLOBAL WARMING MAY BE TWICE WHAT CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT

    “Future global warming may eventually be twice as warm as projected by climate models and sea levels may rise six metres or more even if the world meets the 2°C target, according to an international team of researchers from 17 countries. The findings published last week in Nature Geoscience are based on observational evidence from three warm periods over the past 3.5 million years when the world was 0.5°C-2°C warmer than the pre-industrial temperatures of the 19th Century.”

    “Observations of past warming periods suggest that a number of amplifying mechanisms, which are poorly represented in climate models, increase long-term warming beyond climate model projections.”

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-global-climate.html#jCp

    1. Meanwhile,

      CO2 LEVELS HAVE REACHED A SCARY NEW MILESTONE, BUT YOU’RE GONNA IGNORE IT ANYWAY, AREN’T YOU?

      Despite efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere hit a new high in April: an average of more than 410 parts per million (ppm). That’s the highest point yet across the data we have for the last 800,000 years. The exact figure of CO2 concentration was 410.31 ppm, as measured by the Keeling Curve dataset collected at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

      And, BTW, CO2 — May 2018: 411.31 ppm, May 2017: 409.91 ppm

    2. Humans seem to be building lots of infrastructure and systems that will either lock in FF burning for another 30 to 50 years or will have to be abandoned. Political move to give more tax breaks to FF and water down emission standards for cars are just the tip of the iceberg to keep the BAU going.

      There is a certain point where adaptation fails and major losses occur. Nature is already losing and Global Warming is just getting started.

      Kevin Anderson – The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … dissonance or creativity in a changing climate
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpbfGaKp4K4

            1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFmFr5boXvw
              840HP Dodge Demon with Race ECU vs Tesla Model S P100D 1/4 Mile Drag Racing

              They had two runs, Tesla won the second run by 0.08 secs. Without any noise or smoking tires like the Dodge.

              Funny Note: at the beginning of the video they had to tow the Dodge because it ran out of gas…

      1. Nature is already losing and Global Warming is just getting started.

        Nature neither wins nor loses. It just follows the laws of physics, chemistry, geology and biology and chips will fall where they may. Just ask any T-Rex 😉

        1. I guess losing habitat, working ecosystems,species and population of species is now considered by you as not losing. I guess that reduces cognitive dissonance since it means that “shit happens, nothing to see here”.

          That guy that wrote The End of Nature should be notified immediately. How embarrassing for him.

          Or maybe you would prefer more politically correct language “temporary natural diminishment and dislocation”. 🙂

          1. I guess losing habitat, working ecosystems,species and population of species is now considered by you as not losing. I guess that reduces cognitive dissonance since it means that “shit happens, nothing to see here”.

            Not at all! While it may be a loss to me personally and also counter to my desires. If we start turning the dials in such a way that we push the system towards conditions which are no longer in the sustainable zone for entire ecosystems and certain species, nature will just will follow its laws.

            If we are too stupid not to fiddle with controls we don’t even understand all that well, then we have no one but ourselves to blame when the shit hits the fan.

            Nature has gone through previous mass extinction events and produced new life forms afterwards. But it doesn’t care if the control dials are turned by pyroclastic lava flows, a giant meteorite impact or anthropogenic CO2 emissions. It also doesn’t care if the planet is mostly populated by dinosaurs, mammals or anaerobic bacteria.

            Now we supposedly have the knowledge that what we are doing is changing the climate and we also know that that changes the ecosystems. Yet I don’t see too many people acting all that concerned.

            We are more concerned about Scott Pruitt spending money on a conference table than the current administration’s policies and anti science pro fossil fuel lobbying!

            So fucking God Bless America! Go forth and grow the economy and the population. God wants you to burn all that fossil fuel he put in the ground for us! It’s great for the economy!

            Does that reduce cognitive dissonance for ya!

            1. A shorter answer:
              The Human Race is not “nature”.
              We do, indeed, lose.
              Nature goes on.

              -Lloyd

            2. The human race is indeed a part of nature!

              In the big picture we are not much different than cyanobacteria that changed the atmosphere 3.8 billion years ago by producing O2 and making the environment inhospitable to the anaerobic bacteria living at the time, while also making it possible for multicellular organisms to evolve into higher life forms.

              Do not confuse the fact that just because we are at least individually conscious beings that have the unique capacity among all other animals on this planet to visualize the future. And we have developed technologies, language, art science, medicine and live as highly social beings in large cities and are part of a now global civilization. that we are not nature!

              Some of us are still very much directly connected to ecosystems and are quite aware of the fact that we are responsible for what could turn out to be a sixth mass biological extinction from which we may not be able to escape despite all our cleverness.

            3. The Great Oxidation Event was during the range 2.4 to 2.6 billion years ago, EFred.

              There were peaks in O2 before then but they didn’t last and were much smaller.

              Moral: Don’t mess with cyanobacteria.

            4. The Great Oxidation Event was during the range 2.4 to 2.6 billion years ago, EFred.

              Ya! Das ist wahr!

              Though the little critters did start showing up about a billion years before the ‘Great Oxidation Event’ to set the stage…

              http://www.earlyearthcentral.com/early_life_page.html

              There is carbon isotope evidence for life in the world’s oldest known sedimentary rocks from the Isua Greenstone Belt of West Greenland estimated to be 3.85 billion years old. These carbon rich rock layers probably accumulated as plankton bacteria on the surface, died and settled to the ocean floor. These early life forms were not only alive, but capable of photosynthesis, that is inhaling carbon dioxide and exhaling oxygen.

              Hey, it took cyanobacteria about a billion years to significantly start changing the composition of the atmosphere. We’re managing to do it in less than 200 years! Is that cool or what? 😉

            5. True, nature, at least biological nature, has been wrecked and taken great losses many times and in the long run, on the average has thrived.
              I was speaking less geologically and more in the narrow time frame of recent history. You must admit though that the losses now are large and indeed indicative of a probable high magnitude in the not too distant future.

  15. The clown speaks (maybe he should invade Iran):

    TRUMP TO OPEC: ‘REDUCE PRICING NOW!’

    U.S. President Donald Trump again accused the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries of driving gasoline prices higher on Wednesday and urged the oil producer group to do more. “The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two-way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-opec-reduce-pricing-now-104901849.html

    1. I think Iran would close the Straits before suffering universal embargos. If you were going down hard, wouldn’t you grab on and get some licks in? It would only take an attack on a few tankers…even empty ones would work.

      1. Iran conducted a very productive anti armour weapons lab in Iraq from 2003 to 2012, courtesy of the America tax payer. That’s why all mention of attacking Iran involves air strikes and not armoured columns. If Russia sells them S400 systems then air strikes will be off the table. My suspicion is that USA is gonna have to learn the hard way, a few times.

      2. I think Iran would close the Straits before suffering universal embargos.

        Trump would love nothing better. He would have an orgasm just thinking about it.

    1. I’d prefer to see someone like Judith Curry get the job next. She’s seen the inner workings of the hustle and would know what to do to starve the beast.

      1. Too late Trump is putting some coal lobbyist in there at least for now.
        Andrew Wheeler, a former coal lobbyist who shares Mr. Pruitt’s zeal to undo environmental regulations.

    2. To be too stupid for the Trump Regime is quite a accomplishment.
      I agree, Judith Curry would be a good fit with the other psychopaths.
      She seems resistive to evidence and research.
      A perfect fit!
      Well, there is always Oklahoma for Pruitt.
      The EPA is currently a superfund site.

      1. With the supreme court being taken over, the EPA is essentially neutered. Someone is playing the long game.

        1. You can only play the “long game” if it is long.
          We maybe trading with the tribe in the next valley for antibiotics and arrowheads soon.

      2. Why would anybody want to work for Fatboy, it must be becoming obvious to even the most fundamentalist dumbass that Trump has nothing but contempt for them and everyone else except other psychopaths in positions of extreme power, but most of all for his supporters, and he doesn’t even try to hide it, in fact he seems to consider it a badge of honour to trumpet it and see if anyone will call him out. Even when he tries to hide his bigotry and superciliousness he doesn’t do it very well (which is to state a tautology – he doesn’t do anything very well except be a narcissistic, incompetent piece of shit). The White House seems to be getting to a point of atrophy where it can do nothing but undo some Obama legislation, try to implement off-the-cuff Trump ideas like random Tariffs and alienate any and all previous allies and friends both at home and abroad, and maybe getting worse as he has to use successively less qualified and competent replacements. Working there must be toxic, stressful. likely to be held against incumbents for the rest of their careers and, of course, very short lived.

          1. I think Trump is doing a great job of keeping the conventional Republicans on his team. He gives them extremist court judges, defangs the EPA, attacks immigration, acts the bully internationally with friends and enemies equally. What’s not to like?

            Meanwhile his only serious agenda is to look to stroke his ego and increase his fortune.

            What could possibly go wrong?

            1. So far as technology is concerned, we no longer have the sense, as we did in the 1960s and 1970s, that we are about to see great innovations. In terms of political visions, we seem to be very far from the grand projects of the postwar period, such as the United Nations or the initiation of a space program. U.S. elites can’t act on climate change, even though it puts our ecosystem and human life itself in jeopardy. Our feelings of helplessness stem from the fact that for thirty years the tools of persuasion and coercion have been mobilized to wage an ideological war for capitalism, rather than to create conditions for capitalism to remain viable. Neoliberalism places political and ideological considerations above economic ones. The result has been a campaign of fantasy manipulation, a campaign so effective that people with dead-end jobs now believe that there is no alternative.

              It is quite clear that this ideological hegemony has now reached its limit. Does this mean that the system is on the point of collapse? It’s hard to say.

              -David Graeber

            2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/most-americans-oppose-key-elements-of-trump-immigration-policy/2018/07/05/36124360-7e3d-11e8-b0ef-fffcabeff946_story.html

              The nation remains deeply ­divided along party lines, as it has been throughout and before Trump’s presidency. Two other divisions define the political environment of 2018. On issues of immigration, as well as questions about Trump’s presidency, the gaps between men and women and between white voters with and without college degrees are sizable. Women and white college-educated voters are far more dissatisfied with the president and his policies than are men and white voters without college educations. However, gaps based on education are less significant in battleground districts.

              Trump’s overall approval stands at 43 percent, while his disapproval is 55 percent. Among men, 54 percent approve; among women, 32 percent approve.

              His handling of immigration draws slightly higher disapproval, with 39 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving. More than twice as many say they strongly disapprove as say they strongly approve. Among men, 51 percent disapprove, but among women, 67 percent disapprove. Among whites with college educations, 68 percent disapprove, but among non-college whites, 56 percent approve.

              Trump’s best numbers come on the economy: 50 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove. Majorities nationally and in both battleground and non-battleground districts rate the economy as excellent or good. Men are far more positive than women — 26 points more likely to approve of his handling of the economy and 13 points more likely to rate the economy positively.

              On trade issues, the public sides with the president on one key question: whether the United States’ long-term trading partners have taken advantage of this country. By 52 percent to 43 percent, Americans agree with Trump rather than saying the nation’s partners trade fairly. In battleground districts, the margin is slightly larger.

  16. The global temperature for June 2018 was well above average, in line with the upward trend of 0.18°C per decade seen in global temperature data from 1979 onwards. June in 2018 was:

    close to 0.4°C warmer than the average June from 1981-2010;

    the second warmest June on record, though by insignificant margins;

    about 0.06°C cooler than June 2016, and only about 0.01°C warmer than June 2015 and June 2017.

    The warmest and second-warmest instances of each month of the year occur between October 2015 and June 2018.

    https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/surface-air-10

    1. And El Nino looking highly likely next year, so it would only need a mild one for all the monthly records to be broken again, probably by some margin.

    2. Jesus H. It’s 4:30 in the morning here in Maine, and it’s 76 degrees.

      1. And you are complaining?! Heck, here in South Florida I have my AC thermostat set at 78 degrees when I’m at home and 81 when I’m out. When I come inside even the 81 feels nice and cool and dry.

        1. It’s been as hot as or hotter than Florida in the northeast. Hit 97 the other day.
          Evenings stopped falling below 72 a few days ago. Problem is that it takes all night to hit that low now, just before dawn. So it was 80 at midnight. Another day of this and back to “normal?” or at least cooler. Feels good for a few days, but not as a steady diet.
          Luckily I put more insulation on the house, reflective siding, reflective window shades and some sun shading over the south facing windows a couple of years ago. Highest temp it ever got here was 107F. Lowest was -23F. Range is extending. Must really suck in the cities and open suburbs, I am mostly surrounded by trees here.

          I thought most Floridians and Arizonans hid in their houses during the summer. 🙂

      2. Today’s high 90F, low 78F. Currently 88F with 88% hummmmidity!. Your weather sounds cool.

        NAOM

        1. Hey, 52F here 11 degrees south of Hudson Bay SK which is at 81 F, 6 AM temps.

    3. In years past at this time of year, the days would be close to 80 degrees here in lower Michigan. Rain would come about every 4 or 5 days, sometimes in thunderstorms, but mostly in showers. This year it has been in the 90’s all week, with not much rain. Now lawns are turning brown, and people are having to fertilize and water every day, to keep them looking decent.

      Regards,
      Ralph
      Cass Tech ’64

      1. Now lawns are turning brown, and people are having to fertilize and water every day, to keep them looking decent.

        There’s always astro turf! It is less ecologically damaging. Doesn’t require huge amounts of water, don’t have to mow it, no need for herbicides, and pesticides and there is no fertilizer run off…

        Or if you are cheap you can just buy this on Amazon:

        Lawnlift Ultra Concentrated (Green) Grass Paint 16oz. = 1.375 Gallons of Product.

        1. AstroTurf? I hope you’re being sarcastic Fred because these “lawns”, made from a mix of polypropylene, polyurethane and polyethylene, are destructive the habitat of insects (butterflies, bees, etc.) and garden birds as well as creating waste which will NEVER biodegrade. Or we could surrender unconditionally, cover the planet with AstroTurf, and redefine the word green-space.

          1. AstroTurf? I hope you’re being sarcastic Fred

            Et tu Brutus?! Sheesh! I seriously didn’t even for a moment suspect that warranted a smiley, wink or /sarc tag. But once again I have been proven wrong by the internet!

            In any case I think people who water lawns during droughts should be arrested and given hefty fines for crimes against the commons…

            BTW, I was serious about buying green lawn paint for painting dead lawns! Or they could try xeriscaping.

            Cheers!

            1. Sorry Fred, only half way through my first cup of coffee. I live on a country road with just seven homes all surrounded by forest and minimal cleared spaces (“designed” to be wildlife friendly). Every spring I have a dozen, or so, nesting swallows who, with their extended families (bats do the night shift) do a marvelous job on bugs. Even the thought of AstroTurf makes me sick.

            2. Doesn’t matter now. After listening to a Jason Box lecture on the Arctic and finding that the albedo changes are only about 1/3 of the positive radiative forcings there in recent history I recognize we have crossed the tipping point years ago. This does not include methane or permafrost melting effects. This does not include early melting of snow cover.

              To stop this process now would mean removing about a trillion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere quickly and stopping all CO2 emissions now. That will not happen. Just stopping CO2 emission is no longer enough, even if done fairly quickly. CO2 is now the small player in the Arctic.
              Hope for cold Arctic winters, plan for extreme heat above 25- 30 deg N latitude.

              The other news, Spain and most of the Mediterranean region will get very arid, probably forming deserts.
              The good news, more rain in the Arctic. I guess that is good news.

            3. Doesn’t matter now. After listening to a Jason Box lecture on the Arctic and finding that the albedo changes are only about 1/3 of the positive radiative forcings there in recent history I recognize we have crossed the tipping point years ago.

              You mean this one? :
              Dr. Jason Box (@climate_ice)- Climate data for climate communicators
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05wQ9nG0IXY

              In any case if someone might be so inclined in the linked video he mentions this paper with James Hansen as the lead author.

              https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
              Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

              Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous

              Warning: not exactly light reading or for the faint of heart. It’s 52 dense pages long.

              Cheers!

          2. I can imagine this world- covered with astroturf, with rows of photovoltaics covering vast pavillions. With obese people scooting around on reclining robotics pods wearing Trump tshirts and sporting orange hair. Japanese robot dogs running around and info-mercials beaming from massive digital screens overhead…
            [someone please wake me up]

            1. I never though about a robot dog. I’ll talk to my four legged buddy, and best friend, to see if he’s ready to be replaced yet. Do robot dogs let you know when a bear wanders into the yard?

            2. Restaurants with conveyor lifts to take food from plate to mouth. 🙁

              NAOM

      2. We just finished up with a 4 hour thunderstorm on mid Vancouver Island. The rain fell in sheets for probably 2 hours…maybe 4 ” in that time. The river I live on is now November chocolate brown.

        In perspective, we don’t get thunderstorms here as a rule. Maybe every few years one hears thunder. The river flooding in July doesn’t happen. Ever. Well, it’s pretty brown right now and when the tide ebbs I’ll see how my dock takes it. I might lose it.

        Yesterday there was almost no flow and we kayaked at will. The water was gin clear.

  17. Fred, just for you:

    ALBERTA NEUROSCIENTISTS IDENTIFY WHAT MAKES PARROTS NOT SO BIRD-BRAINED

    “Being called a bird-brain may not be so insulting after all, suggests a new University of Alberta study. Neuroscientists have discovered that parrots, remarkably intelligent birds, share neural circuitry similar to primates. They found in parrots, a certain part of the brain called the medial spiriform nucleus is overdeveloped. Compared with other major avian groups like songbirds, waterfowl and owls. Only parrots have the universally large neural circuit.”

    “The more we look at the brains, the more similarities we see.” – Cristi ĂĄ n GutiĂŠrrez-IbĂĄĂąez

    ——————————————

    A burglar broke into a house one night. He shone his flashlight around, looking for valuables when a voice in the dark said, ‘Jesus knows you’re here.’

    He nearly jumped out of his skin, clicked his flashlight off, and froze. When he heard nothing more, after a bit, he shook his head and continued. Just as he pulled the stereo out so he could disconnect the wires, clear as a bell he heard, ‘Jesus is watching you.’

    Freaked out, he shined his light around frantically, looking for the source of the voice. Finally, in the corner of the room, his flashlight beam came to rest on a parrot. ‘Did you say that?’ he hissed at the parrot.

    ‘Yep’, the parrot confessed, then squawked, ‘I’m just trying to warn you that he is watching you.’

    The burglar relaxed. ‘Warn me, huh? Who in the world are you?’

    ‘Moses,’ replied the bird.

    ‘Moses?’ the burglar laughed. ‘What kind of people would name a bird Moses?’

    ‘The kind of people that would name a Rottweiler Jesus.’

    1. “Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face.”

      The great Philosopher – Mike Tyson

      Thanks y—-

    2. ‘The kind of people that would name a Rottweiler Jesus.’

      Oh, trust me on this, that’s not quite so bad!

      When I lived in NYC soon after my son was born, I moonlighted as an art handler to help make ends meet. On one occasion, an associate and I were tasked with driving a special humidity and climate controlled truck out to the Hamptons to pick up and pack a multimillion dollar modern art painting and bring it back to our warehouse in Manhattan. We arrived at this mansion and were instructed to go to the landing on the second floor to retrieve the painting.

      One of the necessary precautions we had to take, was to don shoe covers and acid free white gloves, so as not track dirt onto the carpets and not to leave our finger prints on the frame.

      Long story short. As we reached the landing at the top of the stairs and were about to don our gloves so we could remove the painting from the wall, suddenly, out of nowhere, a huge Rottweiler came bounding out, grabbed my gloves from my hand and ran down the stairs and sat at there at the bottom shaking the glove and growling.

      A door on the second floor flew open and a huge bear of a man looking like a Canadian Lumberjack, dressed in plaid flannel shirt, blue jeans and work boots walked over to the railing and looking down at the Rottweiler yelled: “Drop it Fifi! drop it!”

      I swear, it took every last ounce of my self control to keep from bursting out laughing…

    1. I’ve posted this a few times already.
      https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082017/heatwaves-deadly-heat-humidity-wet-bulb-human-survivability-threshold

      Heat Waves Creeping Toward a Deadly Heat-Humidity Threshold

      …The researchers focused on a key human survivability threshold first identified in a 2010 study, when U.S. and Australian researchers showed there is an upper limit to humans’ capacity to adapt to global warming. That limit is expressed as a wet-bulb temperature, which measures the combination of heat and humidity for an index of physical human misery. When the wet-bulb temperature goes above 35 degrees Celsius, the body can’t cool itself and humans can only survive for a few hours, the exact length of time being determined by individual physiology.

      That survivability threshold is reached when the air temperature climbs above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) and the humidity is above 90 percent. Higher temperatures require less humidity to become deadly, so when the air temperature is 100 degrees Fahrenheit, the wet-bulb survivability threshold is reached when humidity hits 85 percent.

      I have personally experienced what this feels like by working outdoors on hot humid days here in South Florida. It’s no joke!

      1. Circa 1954 I wrote my required pediatric term theme on this subject at Jefferson Davis Charity Hospital in Houston. Sweat and expiration moisture will not evaporate when the humidity is high. As temperature approaches 98.6 F there is no physiologic way to dissipate body heat. One of the conclusions was that the diarrhea ward needed air-conditioning. At that time the only air conditioning was in the operating suites. I recall reading that in India cholera could kill in hours.

    2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rra0aBOwyUo
      Paul Beckwith talks about heatwave in Canada etc…

      Many people around the planet have had to endure extensive, long duration heatwaves in early July; some people have not been successful. Most places are woefully unprepared for heatwaves, and it takes significant spikes upward in death rates before politicians actually start doing anything. In Canada, the province of Quebec keeps better records for heatwave mortalities, and has reported many deaths; in other provinces like Ontario it will take many weeks for authorities to obtain and analyze data from morgues.

  18. Can We Please Stop Blaming Women for Falling Birth Rates Now?
    By Christina Cauterucci

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/can-we-please-stop-blaming-women-for-falling-birth-rates-now.html

    The U.S. birth rate hit a historic low in 2017, setting a new record for the second straight year. There were just 60.2 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age last year, down from 62 in 2016. Demographers have been predictably freaked out by this decline. If population growth falls below the replacement rate—in other words, if the workforce starts losing more people than it’s gaining, and if the population eventually begins to decline—low birth rates could put a strain on the tax base that supports social services and cause the U.S. economy to stall out.

    Two new studies analyzed in the New York Times this week shed more light on the reasons why women are having children later, less often, or not at all. One, a nationally representative Morning Consult survey of more than 1,800 Americans between the ages of 20 and 45, found that expensive child care, a desire for more free time, concerns about the economy, and lack of romantic partners topped their lists of reasons why they didn’t want children or have had fewer kids than they’d like. In another study, which asked women at U.S. and Israeli fertility clinics why they were freezing their eggs, only two of 150 named career concerns as their primary reason for delaying parenthood, upending the loudest narrative surrounding the pricey service. The main reason, cited by half of the single women in the study, was uncertainty about when they might meet someone with whom they’d want to have children. The next most common reason, a divorce or breakup, rests on related concerns. The 15 percent of study subjects who were not single mostly said they wanted to freeze their eggs because their partners weren’t ready or willing to have children. (In the recent Morning Consult survey, just 1 percent of female respondents reporting having frozen their eggs, but nearly half said they would do so if it weren’t so expensive.)

    1. If you’re gonna have kids I recommend having 3 or 4. Increase your chances of getting a good one. Lots of duds in the mix.

      1. What do you plan on doing with the excess bad ones, shoot them?

        NAOM

        1. farm labour- water the goats, feed the chickens, keep an eye on the cucumber patch at night.

    2. Anti-men women’s libber movement reduces population. No problem. Machines are taking over jobs and a lot of people have two or more jobs now, so no problem anyway.
      Job growth rate has been descending for years now anyway.

      With a 14% success rate of live birth from frozen eggs I don’t think that it will increase the population by much.

      1. After a complete global economic collapse and a couple power outages affecting the storage sites of those frozen eggs, I don’t think we even have to worry too much about that 14% success rate… If we are lucky, once we are back to a global population of about half million humans globally, we might have full employment once again 😉

    3. Falling birth rates are good. After 100 yrs we can revisit the question and see if we are closer to carrying capacity of under 2 billion.

    4. Plus the potentially good partners who are put in the friend zone because they are good.

      NAOM

  19. Bit of weather trivia:

    On July 5, 2018, it got to 33.5°C or 92.3°F on the coast of the Arctic Ocean in Siberia while further inland, it reached 34.2°C or 93.5°F. Meanwhile, those massive Siberian wildfires continue burning out of control. BTW: Bugs rule the Arctic. Arthropods make up the majority of animal biomass on the tundra, far outweighing birds or mammals. Unless you’ve been there (in the summer) you couldn’t appreciate how annoying the little bastards can be.

    1. I have been watching those red blobs over northern Siberia. Nice warm winds blowing off the land out over the Arctic Ocean along with warm river water pouring into the AO.

      Have been in the northern lake country, fly and mosquito overshoot displaces a lot of the air. 🙂

  20. Wow, don’t forget your Sunscreen:

    AFRICA MAY HAVE WITNESSED ITS ALL-TIME HOTTEST TEMPERATURE THURSDAY: 124 DEGREES IN ALGERIA

    “An Algerian city soared to 124.3 degrees (51.3 Celsius) Thursday, adding to the onslaught of records for extreme heat set around the planet during the past 10 days.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/06/africa-may-have-witnessed-its-all-time-hottest-temperature-thursday-124-degrees-in-algeria/?utm_term=.8358990b2d1f

  21. When I read this to my dog he just looked at the ceiling and rolled his eyes. Wonder why?

    IT’S OFFICIAL — SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE IS GOOD FOR YOU

    “Living close to nature and spending time outside has significant and wide-ranging health benefits — according to new research. A new report reveals that exposure to greenspace reduces the risk of type II diabetes, cardiovascular disease, premature death, preterm birth, stress, and high blood pressure.”

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180706102842.htm

      1. We could try an experiment and place some Americans in a shopping mall for a year let them eat only at the food court and see what happens to them. Oh, wait, we’ve done that experiment already!
        .

        1. That was good Fred. Never see a fat Bushman.
          However, by reverse I meant would nature be improved with people not being in it? The reverse of people going into nature, people leaving nature.

  22. Magical thinking is not helpful.

    https://aeon.co/ideas/the-earths-carrying-capacity-for-human-life-is-not-fixed

    An excerpt from the 1330-word article:

    x——-x

    There is no particular reason to think that we won’t be able to continue to raise carrying capacity further. Nuclear and solar energy are both clearly capable of providing large quantities of energy for large numbers of people without producing much carbon emissions. Modern, intensive agricultural systems are similarly capable of meeting the dietary needs of many more people. A planet with a lot more chickens, corn and nuclear power might not be the idyll that many wish for, but it would clearly be one that would be capable of supporting a lot more people consuming a lot more stuff for a very long time.

    1. Back to carrying capacity — for humans only. This makes me sick. What about all the other species that inhabit Earth? I suppose you’re a fan of insecticides, AstroTurf and paving the planet with asphalt as well? There are already five or so billion too many of us here now. What conceivable benefit would come from adding another two or three billion people other than guaranteeing the extinction of all wild animal species. Have you heard of overshoot? Look it up and bring the topic up at your next bible study meeting. And, “…consuming a lot more stuff.” wow, what a wonderful goal.

      1. I may be wrong but I don’t think Anton was praising that article. He said: “Magical thinking is not helpful.” I took that as a criticism of the article. And that article could damn sure use a lot of criticism.

      2. Doug , I am a great fan of insecticides–and fungicides, miticides, antibiotics, etc. Even nature produces such pesticides. (In fact, I’m suffering from a case of wicked phytophotodermitis on my legs right now from stupidly walking through a patch of Dictamnus.)

        It’s not the chemicals that’s the problem. It’s how we use them. Like fire: a hazard non plus ultra, but indispensible.

        I wouldn’t be able to grow apples in Maine without pesticides.

        No–our problems all stem from the size of the population. Everything else is scapegoating.

    2. Don’t worry, with the US heading back to 1895, we don’t have to worry about population anymore.

      1. LOL! Or even anthropogenic climate change for that matter.

        That’s a year before Svante Arrhenius’ paper: ‘On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground], was published in the Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science.
        Series 5, Volume 41, April 1896, pages 237-276.

        1. A few things to keep in mind about Arrhenius: he wasn’t a physicist, but a chemist concerned about the Industrial Revolution and harboring the thought that CO2 incontrovertibly controls global climate. Ever since — and, as you note, this is now over a century — climatology has been rooted on obtaining a mathematical set of representations to Arrhenius-like calculations many magnitudes larger than the original assumptions yet still using Arrhenius’ approach of attempting to fit present climate data to previous observations within tightly defined regions and geographies. The foundation of the entire approach remains CO2; all other possibly relevant parameters are, by definition, zero, in part because then no other significant perturbations can possibly disrupt the science disseminated up til now. This assurance means they can claim they know much more than merely a fraction of what is possible, in total, to know about climate variability; thus achieving for the theory a certain probability.

          My research group is presently working on a peer-reviewable paper which will better describe true climate processes represented by holes in Arrhenius assumptions as well as the work by those who have come after him. We do this through the use of physics, engineering, logic, philosophy and ultimately semantics. We believe questioning minds of the world are especially hungry for material which can unite and unify beliefs across crosscutting fields not within the makeup of traditional climate science.

          1. My research group is presently working on a peer-reviewable paper which will better describe true climate processes represented by holes in Arrhenius assumptions as well as the work by those who have come after him. We do this through the use of physics, engineering, logic, philosophy and ultimately semantics.

            That’s nice, can’t wait to read your paper, hope you win The Nobel Prize in Physics, for your work!

            In the meantime, recommended reading:
            https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/in-physics-telling-cranks-from-experts-aint-easy/

            …The Three Christs of Ypsilanti (1964) by the psychiatrist Milton Rokeach. The book describes an experiment in which three schizophrenic patients, each of whom believed he was Christ, were introduced to each other in a mental hospital in Ypsilanti, Michigan. Each concluded that the others were crazy.

            Edit:
            Oh, and guess what?! All three of them were 100% correct! That still didn’t qualify any one of them to actually run the asylum…
            .

    3. There is no particular reason to think that we won’t be able to continue to raise carrying capacity further.

      Oh, I could think of a quite a few! But even if were possible, why the hell, would anyone want to live in such a world?!

      Ted Nordhaus is the co-founder and executive director of the Breakthrough Institute in California. The views of these people are completely insane!

      An excerpt from their ‘We Believe Statement’:

      We believe the market is a potent force for change, but that long-term government investment is required to accelerate technological progress, economic growth, and environmental quality.

      Sounds a lot like pedal to the metal BAU to me!

    4. Thursday, July 5, 2018
      HAILED AS WORST EPA HEAD IN HISTORY, PRUIT FLYS
      RED TEAM TO TULSA FOR TICKER TAPE PARADE
      It’s my going away present from The American Petroleum Institute

  23. I have often mentioned that one of the critical tipping points in marine ecosystems is the demise of tropical coral reefs. Well, the news just got a whole lot worse.

    https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/CC_MVSA0147-Report-Great-Barrier-Reef_V4-FA_Low-Res_Single-Pages.pdf

    Side note: I happen to vehemently disagree with this economic assessment which is cited in the report linked above. I think it falls far short!

    The Great Barrier Reef is a storehouse of biodiversity, and a multi-billion dollar tourist attraction, with an economic, social and iconic value of around $56 billion.

    IMHO if I were to assign monetary value to coral reefs it would be in the multi trillions of dollars. Explaining why, would require a full dissertation. Mostly it has to do with multiple interacting synergistic effects of non linear complex dynamic systems.

    1. And its not just warming oceans.

      THE GREAT BARRIER REEF AND THE COAL MINE THAT COULD KILL IT

      “The Great Barrier Reef is sick. Almost half of its coral is already dead and a massive new coal mine, which was given final approval this week, will only cause further damage. This is not just an issue for Australia, it affects us all. The development will affect the reef at just about every stage. Indeed, so vast is the project’s reach that it is best thought of not as an Australian, or even an Australian-Indian project, but one of global impact and significance.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/aug/01/-sp-great-barrier-reef-and-coal-mine-could-kill-it

    2. There is no realistic way to value life and ecosystems, since money cannot replace the dead, extinct species, wrecked ecosystems or a wrecked world. If people only value life by the business model then you know they are dangerous psychopaths, from a world perspective.
      According to the twisted economic models a human life is worth between 6 million and 9 million dollars in the US. But people are worth 100,000 times what wild animals are valued. How can that be when they are so common?
      Here is how the market values wild animals (usually under $100, beaver at $11).
      http://trappingtoday.com/2017-fur-prices-nafa-may-auction-results/

      However EU recently enacted its first list of invasive species, which blacklists 23 animals and 14 plant species.
      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/eu-release-first-invasives-species-blacklist-180960008/
      Bet there will be a lot of dead raccoons and the market will be filled with their hides.
      Lots of extra killing to be done. Need a new fur coat, prices will be falling, was $795 now ? How about a coyote fur coat for $8000.

      You see raccoons and starlings, your mission to inhabit another continent to save your species in case of calamity has not worked out at all since the most dangerous invasive species of all is on all the continents.

      Funny how nations can get together to kill things but have a horrible time working together to keep things alive.

      1. There is no realistic way to value life and ecosystems, since money cannot replace the dead, extinct species, wrecked ecosystems or a wrecked world. If people only value life by the business model then you know they are dangerous psychopaths, from a world perspective.

        Oh, I agree wholeheartedly!

        While I did write words to the effect, that coral reefs should be valued in the multi trillions of dollars, as opposed to a mere 56 billion, I was just trying to use terms that would make my comment somewhat comprehensible to all those psychopaths who apparently know the price of everything, and the value of nothing.

        1. Fred, I don’t know if you know about this or if it will do any good but I find this talk inspiring and an indicator of the positive potential of human beings.
          Half Earth on a small part of the planet.
          This country isn’t just carbon neutral — it’s carbon negative | Tshering Tobgay
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lc_dlVrg5M

          1. Yes, I was aware of this and had already watched that talk some time ago. Truly inspiring! My question is how do we infect the rest of the planet with those memes?

            1. You mean living within natural constraints? Coming soon to a planet near you. Whether they like it or not!

  24. How some wealthy folks plan for the future.

    “They were not interested in how to avoid a calamity; they’re convinced we are too far gone. For all their wealth and power, they don’t believe they can affect the future. They are simply accepting the darkest of all scenarios and then bringing whatever money and technology they can employ to insulate themselves — especially if they can’t get a seat on the rocket to Mars.”

    https://medium.com/s/futurehuman/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1

    1. Why would anyone choose such a self-inflicted prison and think it is life to live in constant fear?
      Why are they so afraid to die?

  25. “The 120 degree F temperature at Chino on July 6, 2018 may be the highest temperature ever recorded at an ASOS site (NWS, FAA, or DOD automated surface observing system) in the coastal or valley areas of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. ”

    Natures way of telling you——-

  26. Catalina Island Airport (elevation 1,578 feet or 481 meters above sea level) had an overnight low of 91°F or 33°C last night.

    1. So many Russians, so few tigers!
      Only 400 Siberian tigers left in the world…and there are 36 million people living in Siberia!

      1. and there are 36 million people living in Siberia!
        About the same as California (which is a fraction of the size- but who’s last grizzly bear went extinct in the 1920’s).

        May I suggest Tigers In The Snow by Matthison?
        You won’t be disappointed.

  27. NATURE — 25 April 2018

    CAN THE WORLD KICK ITS FOSSIL-FUEL ADDICTION FAST ENOUGH?

    “The bottom line is hardly encouraging: by and large, governments are falling well short of their commitments, both collectively and individually. Many countries are likely to miss the emissions targets that they made in 2015, and the world is on track for more than 3 °C of warming by the end of the century…The good news is that clean-energy technology is at last making substantial strides. The bad news is that the pace isn’t nearly quick enough. Big economic and political hurdles stand in the way of shutting off the fossil-fuel spigot and the cheap energy it provides….

    It is difficult to say exactly how much time is left. Estimates for the maximum amount of carbon that can be emitted if warming is to remain below 1.5 °C, for example, vary widely. There could be 10 or even 15 years of leeway remaining. Or, humanity might have already burned through the total allotment six years ago. Either way, the tight margins have led many researchers to suspect that even the 2 °C Paris target could be out of reach — at least without developing technologies to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere or artificially cooling Earth by blocking incoming solar radiation.”

    MEANWHILE, THE WORLD’S CURRENT AVERAGE POPULATION INCREASE IS ESTIMATED AT 83 MILLION PEOPLE PER YEAR.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04931-6?error=cookies_not_supported&code=c22e87de-571e-454a-bb25-1f3bea8f4b81

  28. Anyone out there think that something like this might work? To me, while it may sound technically feasible, it seems about as plausible a solution, as bailing out the bilges of the sinking Titanic with a teacup…

    https://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_wilcox_a_new_way_to_remove_co2_from_the_atmosphere

    Every day that goes by I seem to have less and less faith in humanity at large… if we don’t seriously address human population growth on the planet, I really don’t see a happy ending to this movie!

    1. Fred —

      A 2009 study of the relationship between population growth and global warming determined that the “carbon legacy” of just one child can produce 20 times more greenhouse gas than a person will save by driving a high-mileage car, recycling, using energy-efficient appliances and light bulbs, etc. Each child born in the US will add about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average parent… “Clearly, the potential savings from reduced reproduction are huge compared to the savings that can be achieved by changes in lifestyle.”

      Maybe it’s time to focus on the bigger problem (too many people) and stop pretending EVs will save the world. The fact is, electric cars still need a place to park, asphalt roads, bridges, tunnels, etc. — BAU by another name. I’ve watched Norway transitioning to EVs while they construct huge new bridges and beautifully engineered tunnels through mountains. More people, more infrastructure, more global warming…

      https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/climate/

    2. She talks about using the size of New Jersey to pull 5% of emissions from the air.
      If an area the size of New Jersey was covered 80 percent with solar PV at 20 percent efficiency, it would have at least half the actual electrical generation of the US on average. Better to invest in renewable energy and eliminate the CO2 sources instead of trying to Band-Aid them. Once we get the transistion well under way we can estimate if it is worth sucking CO2 from the air or directly from emitting sources such as reduction processes.
      If we can’t stop the major CO2 output, band-aiding the process is a waste of resources.

  29. Continuing my rant above:

    “Globally, recent research indicates that assumptions regarding declining fertility rates used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to develop future emissions scenarios may be overly optimistic. While fertility rates have generally declined over the past few decades, progress has slowed in recent years, especially in developing nations, largely due to cutbacks in family planning assistance and political interference from the United States. And even if fertility rates are reduced to below replacement levels, population levels will continue to climb steeply for some time as people live longer and billions of young people mature and proceed through their reproductive years. Per-capita greenhouse gas emissions may drop, but the population bulge will continue to contribute to a dangerous increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

    https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/climate/

    1. The most guaranteed way to greatly reduce human population is continued BAU and BAU+.

      1. Yep, you do have a point! And one of the best ways to kill off a cancer is to let the patient die. Never fails! Well, with the possible exception of HeLa cells…

          1. Now, now, killing BAU is what will drastically reduce the current population. BAU is the patient, the cancer is over population and everything that goes with it. That will not continue with BAU dead and gone, it is on its last legs anyway.

            Will it ultimately lead to complete extinction? That I don’t know. If I were a betting man I’d give it pretty high odds. Though I wouldn’t quite bet the entire farm on it either.

            1. From the IPCC
              “##“business-as-usual” baseline case , which assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies will take place.”

  30. Attention Mr. Trump”

    In a papal address Friday, Pope Francis told a Vatican assembly that climate change threatens to leave the Earth a desolate wasteland if international governments don’t combat the crisis.

    “There is a real danger that we will leave future generations only rubble, deserts and refuse,” he said.

    1. Well, maybe the Pope should start by getting off his high horse and officially sanction sex education, family planning, birth control and legal abortion methods such as the morning after pill. Pills containing mifepristone and misoprostol to induce abortions.
      Maybe he could order his priests to distribute holy condoms at Communion!

      As far as I’m concerned, for now he’s just another fucking hypocrite because he knows the truth but doesn’t have the guts to act on it!

      I also have very little patience with the evangelical Christians and the religious right, aka Trump supporters! If they don’t like abortions, maybe they should consider sex education for their children as a preventative precaution! Pro life?! Yeah, my ass!

      And don’t even let me get started on the stupid fucking fundamentalist Moslems and Jews… I wish there was a real hell for all of them!

      1. “As far as I’m concerned, for now he’s just another fucking hypocrite because he knows the truth but doesn’t have the guts to act on it!”

        That thought occurred to me as well. Two decades back I spent some time in the Philippines where the average family has (had) ten kids – often brain damaged owing to malnutrition. They took the then Pope’s word that birth control was a sin. Don’t think many people pay much attention to Popes anywhere, anymore.

        1. There are more people highly angry and upset about the shooting of one giraffe than about over-population.

          1. Well, I’m willing to bet that the rich white bitch, who shot the black giraffe for fun, is a pretty good example of the kind of person who also doesn’t care about over population and probably cares even less about her own ostentatious over consumption. So being really pissed at her and her ilk is more about being angry at an entire segment of an arrogant clueless elitist portion of the population as a whole. It is not so much about one giraffe it’s about an entire mindset.

          2. There are more people highly angry and upset about the shooting of one giraffe than about over-population.

            Or, you might say that there more people upset about shooting one giraffe than they are about over-population. But really they are two entirely different subjects. Ditto for over-population and giraffes. Though they are connected, more people means fewer giraffes. More people means fewer animals of every species of megafauna.

            But I think Fred’s post, above, pretty well sums up my opinion as well.

  31. Is this guy leader of the “Free World”?

    TRUMP CRAMMED A REMARKABLE AMOUNT OF MISOGYNY INTO JUST 24 HOURS

    “Donald Trump’s aggressive misogyny was on full display this week. Actually, it was just one day: Thursday, when the president of the United States demeaned women and the victims of sexual abuse while rushing to defend men accused of enabling sexual misconduct.

    First the White House announced that former Fox News co-president Bill Shine would be Trump’s new deputy chief of staff for communications. Shine is best known for helping Fox News co-founder and erstwhile chairman Roger Ailes and former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly get away with sexual misconduct for years.

    Later in the day Trump defended another man, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is accused of overlooking the sexual abuse of college athletes when he was a wrestling coach at Ohio State University in the late 1980s and early ’90s.

    Trump capped off the day by mocking Me Too, a powerful feminist movement that threatens men like him ― the grab-’em-by-the-pussy president. Thanks to Me Too, it has become harder to get away with sexual assault.”

    This stuff originally appeared on HuffPost. No idea if it’s true or not.

    1. Yikes! What could possibly go wrong, eh?

      Seriously though, from the article it looks like a mini DECO chamber which may have some useful application regardless of this particular rescue event.

      Side note: I was a 3 star CMAS scuba instructor, also certfied 500 ft heliox saturation diver by SubSea Oil and held over 20 specialty certifications, including rescue diver, I can only say, that I hold cave divers in the highest of all regards! It demands the highest level of technical, physical and mental skills of any underwater activity. Except for a few dives in big open caves, it was never something I ever wanted to engage in, I was just too damn chicken!

      Cheers!

    2. I bet sure the Thai Navy SEALs are sure glad Musk showed up to bail them out! lol what a mountebank!

      1. Right now the focus should be giving the victims, rescuers, and medical staff all the privacy they deserve in this whole tragedy, instead of making Musk the focus of attention with all his gizmos. Let’s all pray all the remaining victims can be rescued before the next rains arrive. That should be the main focus.

        1. As of this posting, 8 of the boys have been rescued with the remaining 5 hopefully led to safety by tomorrow.

          Bruce Oksol’s Milliondollarway site had the best link by far on the specifics of the physical cave layout and the precise procedures being implemented, with drawings.

          It appears the lead adult diver is swimming in front, holding the youth’s bottle/tank, and the youth is tethered to this diver.
          Not shown – but suspected by me – is that the youth’s hands are fastened to the adult.

          If true, this would address a most serious concern …that being the youth’s panic-stricken removal of the face mask.
          This is not an uncommon occurrence amongst adult divers in clear, warm tropical waters, and accompanied by colleagues.

          Panic kills.

          The second adult diver is pictured closely following behind.

          To achieve what they are accomplishing is beyond miraculous as it is dark, cold, loud (even breathing underwater is loud), and unquestionably emotionally supercharged with anxiety/fear.

          Books and textbooks will be written for years about this event.
          The skill and bravery of all involved are off the charts magnificent.

          1. Books and textbooks will be written for years about this event. The skill and bravery of all involved are off the charts magnificent.

            Agree 100%!

          2. There was a suggestion that they may have been sedated but I have no firm information. While there is talk of them not needing diving training for this rescue I believe they would have had a thorough training in the basics of not panicking, breathing and that the surface is not your friend.

            As an ex-DM I hope they can complete this operation without further tragedy but the thought of a dive like that gives me serious shivers. Non-divers cannot see all of the issues by a long way and the guys doing the work have something very special to be able to do it.

            Let us remember that getting the boys out is not the end. All the equipment, tanks, pipes, pumps etc need to be removed so as not to present hazards to others.

            NAOM

            1. Update
              BBC reported that they were given anti-anxiety medicine to avoid panic attacks. Grauniad reported that Musk was asked to help by one of the rescue divers.

              I am so glad they are out.

              NAOM

            2. Pumps gave out shortly after final rescuee was taken from cave.

              Reports said several dozen people still inside complex rushed out as both chambers completely flooded fairly quickly.

              Simply incredible series of events.

              Hopefully, the rescuers will receive their well earned acclaim for their amazing efforts.

      2. Actually someone asked him if he could do anything and has been co-ordinating through local contacts.

        Your accusation is hurtful to me as I experienced accusations of ulterior motives when trying to do good for someone that ended up breaking a friendship. Your remark is uncalled for.

        NAOM

  32. For the record,
    I’m with Ron, and just about all the regulars here, in believing we are deep into overshoot and that a population collapse is just about inevitable….. except that I believe there it is more likely to be peace meal, rather than planetary in geographic and temporal scope, assuming we don’t fight WWIII, and that the world wide climate doesn’t go bonkers all at once, rather than gradually, etc.

    But a lot of smart people believe otherwise…… in my personal opinion because they know enough to be dangerous, lol.

    Now the premise of this article MIGHT turn out to be correct. MAYBE there won’t be a collapse, at least not anytime soon.

    It’s worth reading, and worth noting that you can disagree with the consensus here, without being ignorant or a Trumpster, etc.

    https://aeon.co/ideas/the-earths-carrying-capacity-for-human-life-is-not-fixed

    The farmer’s perspective is that while collapse is frequent, in our profession, on the local, regional, and even continental scale once in a long while, it’s usually confined to relatively small areas. It’s very common for beef producers to have to sell out their stock due to a lack of feed, which in turn is usually due to drought. Producers five hundred miles away, or even two hundred miles, may have more grass than their cows can eat, and be looking for more cows…. assuming the price is right.

    A total crop failure in any one largish country is rather unlikely.If there’s some food produced, and some can be imported, maybe half the population would perish over a year or two……. and when the rain comes back, well, half as many people will be trying to get a living from the same amount of land as previously.

    SO……….. If and when this comes to pass, at least some countries are going to put in some pretty tough new laws, and enforce them…………laws involving how many children a couple may have, laws involving conservation of land and water, laws involving the forced adoption of renewable energy, etc.

    It’s possible, depending on how the political cards fall, that collapse can be contained within the borders of certain countries and geographical areas.

    Any links to articles and discussions of such scenarios are greatly appreciated, and thanks in advance.

    1. I had given this subject some thought and it seems straightforward to me that the carrying capacity is not fixed- by some particular limiting factor like square footage, gms of soil, # oxygen molecules, or joules of energy in available coal.

      It really comes down to how people behave themselves, collectively.

      For example take energy. Bangladesh and Pakistan have, combined, more people than the USA, and their per capita energy use [by IEA stats] is about 1/19th that of the USA. And yet they survive.
      Similar consumption variations can be found with petrochemicals, arable land, concrete, wood products, etc.

      If people lived simply, for example no air travel whatsoever, the carrying capacity would certainly be higher. But in general we are not moving in that direction. Contrary in many ways.

      It is likely we will learn this the hard way, and like you say, in a patchy and piecemeal manner.
      Most people aren’t great at voluntarily living more simply.
      I know some who do live far below their means, with grace and a measure of contentment.
      I see them as admirable and role models. But they are not the ones who get the attention of society.

      1. I had given this subject some thought and it seems straightforward to me that the carrying capacity is not fixed-

        Of course it’s not fixed. It is falling every day.

        For example, take energy. Bangladesh and Pakistan have, combined, more people than the USA, and their per capita energy use [by IEA stats] is about 1/19th that of the USA. And yet they survive.

        They barely survive! Pakistan is running out of water.
        Water crisis: Why is Pakistan running dry? Thirty percent of the people live in desperate poverty and it will get a lot worse as the water problem gets desperate in just a few years.

        Bangladesh is one of the poorest nations in the world.
        Extreme Poverty – Bangladesh
        Bangladesh also has a severe water crisis. Bangladesh has one of the highest population densities in the world, with a population of 160 million living within 57,000 square miles. Of those 160 million people, 4 million lack safe water and 85 million lack improved sanitation.

        All over the world water tables are dropping and rivers are running dry. Even the short-term carrying capacity of the world is dropping by millions per year.

        1. Yep.
          The carrying capacity of these two countries in the long run may be, say, 40 million people rather than the 370 they have now. But if they continue on the modernization path that most countries are hell bent on, the capacity could be more like 15 million.

          Also, the resilience of some communities/countries is much greater than others, and this affects the carrying capacity of that locale. Everywhere is overextended to some degree- whether it is water, energy, soil, and often all three.

          On another note- have you stopped to wonder how many people living a basic agraian lifestyle could inhabit the Mississippi River drainage? Look at the the population density map of the Ganges or Yangtze River valleys to get a hint [subtract some for nitrogen fertilizer, and some for cold winters, but still].

          1. I agree about the lower Mississippi. If it had been colonized by the Chinese, instead of the English, there would be 100 million people there. Instead it is dying.

            I first started thinking about this on a recent trip to my native Southern Appalachia. It struck me that people there just aren’t very good at farming. The region has been poor since the late 19th century, and suffered under the yoke of coal company exploitation. “The company gets the coal, the miners get the shaft”.

            So what about subsistence farming? It’s hilly, but I have never seen terracing or farm scale flood control. Flooding is a common problem but before TVA people felt helpless, saying, “The good lord willin’ and the crick don’t rise”. And they still say it, because TVA is something outsiders did. I know a very smart guy who runs cattle on a reclaimed strip mine and firmly states that the land is muddy because the coal company ruined it and there is nothing you can do about it.

            Tobacco is about the only cash crop. In poor backwoods areas today people have big lawns and make no attempt to feed themselves. There is little talk about local vegetable specialties, although I remember eating purple beans and turnip greens when growing up.

            In the mid 19th century Appalachia was rich, exporting lumber and ranching hogs. The hogs fed on the (formerly) abundant chestnuts, so this was a continuation of the Germanic system of feeding hogs on acorns and beechnuts, which the Saxons brought to Britain. And the grew a few Indian crops, like corn and squash.

            Then came ecological collapse. Politics melted down as well, and the famous feuds (like the Hatfields and McCoys) were feudalism filling the power vacuum left by the lack of government.

            Then outsiders brought the coal mines and the New Deal. In recent decades the Federal government financed highways everywhere and mostly outside developers built suburbia. People eat processed chicken nuggets and drink corn syrup and bubbly water. The cities and towns were all knocked down to make way for parking lots. The local music traditions are confined to museums. Everyone watches TV shows produced for a national audience. People find local traditions slightly embarrassing.

            If some big disaster comes, they will have to start from scratch. societies that have stuck to their traditions have a better chance.

        2. Pakistan will be the first major over the falls, IMHO.
          India is not far behind, and Indonesia is on the steps.
          China? Surely anyone with minor knowledge of biology can see it will be a wasteland.

          1. You mean all this effort to plant trees and build renewable energy is akin to the scurrying about by ants when the anteater shows up?

          2. Here is an example of a place that could do well in the long term I suppose- Argentina.
            They have plenty of good land, lots of sun and wind. I think pretty decent water too.
            Ocean and Mountains have their back.

            Australia better decide how they will handle boat people.

            1. Argentina is not undiscovered– full of elites who know the spots to escape.
              One of my favorite places.

          3. Iran has some big water shortage issues too. They hired someone from Imperial College to set a strategy that might help but arrested him when he landed, he ended up staying ten months but now he’s gone back to academia, so that didn’t work out.

            “The problem is serious,” he said, speaking by telephone from an undisclosed location. “But the only thing they take seriously is security.”
            Iran is not alone in suffering shortages and is relatively open about the need to face up to the causes. It has published documents showing that dam building after the Islamic Revolution failed to provide the hoped-for glut and that groundwater was over-extracted by farmers to meet demands that Iran be self-sufficient in food.
            “It’s not that we don’t know the solutions,” Mr Madani said. “It’s that the solutions are hard to implement.”
            … he said. “Iran is water bankrupt.”
            His proposed solutions put him in the middle of a battle between hardliners and “reformists”. He preferred the approach popular in the West, which focuses on conservation and efficiency. In Iran such methods are seen as tantamount to subversion and spying.

            Paywall: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/expert-hired-to-solve-iran-s-water-crisis-arrested-at-tehran-airport-s6zpkcc8s

            A few years ago the FAO reported that at current rate, mainly due to intensive farming practices, there was about 60 years of topsoil left, but if you take the areas that get too hot or dry to farm because of climate change or exhaustion of water supply it may be much less.

            One big food producing region might be about to get clobbered when Typhoon Maria makes landfall on the China mainland this week.

            1. “The problem is serious,” he said, speaking by telephone from an undisclosed location. “But the only thing they take seriously is security…

              “…It’s not that we don’t know the solutions,” Mr Madani said. “It’s that the solutions are hard to implement.” he said. “Iran is water bankrupt.”…”

              Maybe it’s just me, but running out of water would make me feel more than a tad insecure. Denial, is not just a river in Egypt! (Pun intended).

            2. It’s worth mentioning that Iran is very mountainous, so there is plenty of water, just nobody catching it. The same is true of the hill country of Southern and Western Arabia, which could all be orchards. All the cities in the region suffer from flash flood. Afghanistan is like that too, and satellite images of Jalalabad show how the whole country could be a garden of Eden.

            3. Many of those places did have ‘Gardens of Eden’ until modern methods showed up to do things ‘right’.

              NAOM

  33. Maybe its time to stop pretending we’ve got a handle on this:

    STUDY REVEALS WHAT NATURAL GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS FROM WETLANDS AND PERMAFROSTS MEAN FOR PARIS AGREEMENT TARGETS

    “Global fossil fuel emissions would have to be reduced by as much as 20% more than previous estimates to achieve the Paris Agreement targets, because of natural greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands and permafrost, new research has found. The additional reductions are equivalent to 5-6 years of carbon emissions from human activities at current rates, according to a new paper led by the UK’s Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.”

    “The greenhouse gas emissions from natural wetland and permafrost increase with global temperature increases, this in turn adds further to global warming creating a “positive feedback” loop. The results show the “positive feedback” process are disproportionately more important for the emission reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target rather than the 2 °C target.”

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-reveals-natural-greenhouse-emissions-wetlands.html#jCp

    1. What do you think about several more million square kilometers of the Arctic being exposed to sunlight during the highest insolation month, since the 1970’s?

      1. I think we are probably royally fucked!

        Keeping CO2 equivalent emissions at or below 1.5° C or even 2.0° C is already pretty much out of reach. We are probably on target, to at a minimum, hit 3.0° C to 4.0° C, I’d say even 5.0° C is not unrealistic by the end of this century. PETM like extinction, here we come!

        To keep things in perspective just look at what is already happening in multiple systems all over the planet and we haven’t even reached a full 1.0° C of temperature increase above preindustrial baseline as of yet. It’s obvious that this is already causing multiple tipping points to be passed!
        I’ll cite one that I keep track of for personal reasons, The Great Barrier Reef is for all practical purposes dead. I don’t give it more than another two decades. That alone will have a domino effect on most marine ecosystems. Hope Y’all like your jellyfish burgers with a side of toxic algae.

        I have a hunch the ATM (Anthropocene Thermal Maximum) extinction event may be far worse than the PETM extinction event was because the current rate of climate change is happening at about 10 X the rate of what occurred back then.

        I’m pretty sure no one else has yet used the moniker ATM so I hereby take full credit as the first to use it… not that it matters!

          1. LOL! Should have checked!
            Though I did google ATM extinction event and came up empty.

        1. The way I figure things, those of us past retirement age don’t have much to worry about. This is something for our grandchildren and great-grandchildren to solve with all the technology they use now.

          1. We do not inherit the land from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
            Native American Proverb

          2. The way I figure things, those of us past retirement age have treated Earth like a garbage dump and expect our children and grandchildren to clean up the mess – or perish.

            1. And probably the least we can do is admit it, rather than sit around in PA with our entitled thumb up our smug arse and a big self-congratulatory smile on our face.

    2. I think the research simply can’t keep up with the changes now, which is as good an indication that we’re past some tipping points as any.

  34. Heard about this very briefly on NPR this morning. Cave rescue and minor political issues took up most of the airtime, I think they spoke three or four sentences at most on the subject and on to the more important things.

    Army Corps Proposes Giant Hurricane Barrier Across New York Bay

    The proposal will undoubtedly be controversial, given that such a barrier could cost $20 billion or more, and will take years to plan and build. Environmentalists meanwhile fear that the barriers, even with movable gates, would seriously impede the flow of sea life and water. (Riverkeeper says the proposal “threaten[s] the very life of the Hudson River.”) But others argue that barriers are a more secure and centralized way of protecting the metropolitan region than the piecemeal approach undertaken so far.

    https://www.wnyc.org/story/army-corps-proposes-giant-hurricane-barrier-across-new-york-bay/

    Looks like the idea of staying in place amidst increasing storms and rising seas is going to be the way things are done around the large rich infestations. I would not be surprised if this 5 mile long mega-project that is said to cost $20 billion ends up over $50 billion.
    I wonder what they plan to do with all the water coming down the Hudson, Raritan, Passaic, Hackensack and other rivers when the heavy rains from these storms dump all over the nearby watersheds and end up behind that barrier.
    I also wonder how much carbon reduction could be had for $50 billion dollars versus the huge amount of carbon output to build this project. That is the key, every major occurrence bleeds money and materials as well as produces much more pollution if we let it. Even happens from a storm long gone.

    Meanwhile:
    “We’ve had six years to do something about coastal flooding and storm surge, and now with just 12 days’ notice, there will be public meetings on a plan that could forever change the ecology, view lines and navigability of our river, and not a single one in Westchester-Rockland, the ecological heart of the estuary,” said New York State Sen. Terrence Murphy, calling it worse than the Coast Guard’s idea to put long-term anchorages up and down the Hudson River for oil tankers.
    https://patch.com/new-york/ossining/proposed-nyc-storm-barriers-could-hurt-hudson-riverkeeper

    1. Looks like the idea of staying in place amidst increasing storms and rising seas is going to be the way things are done around the large rich infestations. I would not be surprised if this 5 mile long mega-project that is said to cost $20 billion ends up over $50 billion.
      I wonder what they plan to do with all the water coming down the Hudson, Raritan, Passaic, Hackensack and other rivers when the heavy rains from these storms dump all over the nearby watersheds and end up behind that barrier.

      No worries!
      .

      1. Nice rendition of the possible insanity keeping the money and craziness in one place, to be washed away at a future date!

        This is an expensive act of desperation that will fail in many ways and only makes the problems worse. Think Sandy Hook as a very weak link in the 5 mile “wall”. A large sand spit averaging 5 feet, maximum 13 feet high.

    2. Yeh, right! And when the big storm comes, maybe even before construction is complete, the result will be devastating. If it is built and a failure occurs – I dread to think.

      NAOM

    3. If by “minor political issues” you meant the Supreme Court pick, you better not whine when the courts make population decrease mechanisms (abortion and contraception) as well as climate change theory completely illegal in the coming years.

  35. Politician caught in the vise of the energy transistion, the fossil fuel interests, the environment and the needs of the people. No matter if one has good intentions, it’s a rough go for everyone and everything involved for as far as we can see into the future.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXgpbr-eD3g
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfQNCQVvMJg

    Of course there are those that want to pull us back into the fiery pit. There are those who trudge forward against the “leaders”.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYEvt8qF8sM

  36. I know, its just weather but………..

    MESMERISING MAPS REVEAL RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WORLD AS THE EARTH EXPERIENCES ‘ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE HEAT EVENTS EVER SEEN’

    • Meteorologist Nick Humphrey has expressed concern over high temperatures in Northern Siberia
    • The Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea have received a ‘true roasting’ melting ice covering the Arctic Ocean
    • This ice serves as an insulator and stops the flow of thermal energy from the water’s into the atmosphere
    • Experts fear this effect, known as Arctic Amplification, is causing extreme weather patterns across the planet
    • Weakening of the polar jet stream can lead to severe weather like the Beast from the East that buffeted Britain

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5933587/Mesmerising-maps-reveal-record-breaking-temperatures-world.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

    1. Sheesh, everybody complains about the weather. We are headed to a warmer, friendlier, cozier world for the next several million years. In the meantime, don’t think of the Earth as home, think of it as a ship carrying life to a new destination. Rough seas ahead, batten down the hatches! 🙂

      1. In the meantime, don’t think of the Earth as home, think of it as a ship carrying life to a new destination. Rough seas ahead, batten down the hatches!

        Yeah, it’s like the Great Ship Lolipop, full speed ahead into oblivion!

        Down in steerage you have the masses of quasi slaves the populist ultra nationalist theo fascists. Then midships you have the second class composed of the pseudo literate technophile class, while in the upper decks the uber rich elite get to cavort and party the night away in faux luxury. The uber rich mistakenly think they are the ones in control of the bridge because they pay the drunken captain’s meager stipend and let him treat the crew like slaves!

        https://medium.com/s/futurehuman/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1
        Survival of the Richest
        The wealthy are plotting to leave us behind

        Douglas Rushkoff

        For all their wealth and power, they don’t believe they can affect the future.

        The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus, or Mr. Robot hack that takes everything down.

        This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from the angry mobs. But how would they pay the guards once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from choosing their own leader? The billionaires considered using special combination locks on the food supply that only they knew. Or making guards wear disciplinary collars of some kind in return for their survival. Or maybe building robots to serve as guards and workers — if that technology could be developed in time.

        BTW, The above is not an excerpt from a bad dystopian scifi novel. Those are actual questions asked of Douglas Rushkoff by uber rich clients of his, at a talk for which they paid him the equivalent of half a year’s of his professor’s salary…

        We are seriously fucked, ladies and gentlemen!

  37. STRONGER WEST WINDS BLOW ILL WIND FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

    “Stronger westerly winds in the Southern Ocean could be the cause of a sudden rise in atmospheric CO2 and temperatures in a period of less than 100 years about 16,000 years ago, according to a study published in Nature. The westerly winds during that event strengthened as they contracted closer to Antarctica, leading to a domino effect that caused an outgassing of carbon dioxide from the Southern Ocean into the atmosphere. This contraction and strengthening of the winds is very similar to what we are already seeing today as a result of human caused climate change….”

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-stronger-west-ill-climate.html#jCp

  38. GLOBAL QUADRUPLING OF COOLING APPLIANCES TO 14 BILLION BY 2050

    The report concludes that:

    • Under the current scenario, over the next 30 years 19 cooling appliances will be sold every second; but this will not deliver ‘Cooling for All’.
    • By 2050, we would require a total of 14 billion cooling appliances globally to meet demand—an additional 4.5 billion appliances compared to the baseline forecast of 9.5bn- or four times as many pieces of cooling equipment than are in use today.
    • to “green” the volume of electricity required would consume more than 80% of the International Energy Agency’s projected total renewables capacity for 2050 and more than 100% in the event we do not achieve accelerated technology progress.

    Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-07-global-quadrupling-cooling-appliances-billion.html#jCp

    1. Meanwhile,

      HEAT WAVE BUILDS IN WESTERN US AFTER LEAVING DOZENS DEAD IN THE EAST, CANADA

      As the heat wave that has left at least three dozen people dead in Canada, the northeast US and Kansas recedes, heat is building in the western US and is likely to add to wildfire concerns. Over 90 million people were under some sort of heat watch, warning or advisory, including in the Northeast, the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the Southwest.

      1. The maps below show the bulk of the temperature rise in the US has taken place in the West and North parts of the country and of course Alaska. The Mid and Southern sections are cooler, probably modified by air and weather coming off the Gulf of Mexico.

    2. Atlanta had about 25,000 people pre aircon——-
      It will be like that again.

      1. There has been construction of net-zero energy buildings in India since 2014. I don’t see the problem. We have the technology and know-how, we can build them, we can rebuild them.

        As far as refrigeration goes, consumer designs are highly inefficient and easily improved. Commercial designs can be improved also. We probably use 80 percent more cooling energy than we need.

        The future problem is not energy, there is lots of that available and a large amount of reduction can still occur with design changes and source changes. The future problems are much more insidious.

          1. You might want to actually go beyond making all-encompassing fantastic declarations and give that statement some actual factual support if you want anyone to believe you.

            1. User dependent. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

        1. There has been construction of net-zero energy buildings in India since 2014. I don’t see the problem. We have the technology and know-how, we can build them, we can rebuild them.

          And, We can always apply termite technology to our buildings as well. Termites have naturally air conditioned mounds.
          .

        2. As I noted before, my house is more thermally efficient than the ‘standard house’ plus I am comfortable at a higher temperature than Americans like to refri.. err air-condition their homes so an air-conditioning (A/C) installation to ‘the book’ ends up being over-rated and short cycles. In some places A/C will still be needed even with improved house design so A/C calculation will also need to be revised to use less energy consuming devices. Overall, with design, reduction in capacity and efficiency increases, an increase in installations may not represent an increase in energy consumption.

          NAOM

          1. Hey, me and everyone around at the time grew up without air conditioning in America. Big deal, we still did everything. All the generations before me didn’t have it.
            I don’t remember people constantly complaining about the weather back then. It was what it was whether hot or cold.
            Now they design buildings to have air conditioning. Bad design makes everyone suffer.

            1. Hey, me and everyone around at the time grew up without air conditioning in America.

              As did I in Brazil but we all lived in stone and brick houses with tile floors and high ceilings. Most houses also had verandas all around the sides. A few well placed ceiling fans kept things pretty cool.

              Even now I live in a small condo in an old concrete two story building with high ceilings. I have survived power outages after a hurricane with no AC by using a couple of fans powered by a couple of solar panels and some deep cycle storage batteries.

              Now we have what can only be called stupid buildings. They are not habitable without AC.

            2. I lived in Micronesia without electricity or running water for over a year.
              Water off the roof—
              I did have kerosene for cooking.

  39. E-Waste Offers an Economic Opportunity as Well as Toxicity
    By Brook Larmer

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/magazine/e-waste-offers-an-economic-opportunity-as-well-as-toxicity.html

    E-waste has become the world’s fastest-growing trash stream. For all of us who have discarded a phone or computer for a newer, sleeker model, the reasons are hardly a mystery. Still, the growth is staggering: The worldwide accumulation of e-waste has more than doubled in the last nine years. In 2016, according to the United Nations University, a global think tank that tracks the problem, the yearly accumulation reached 49.3 million tons — enough to fill more than a million 18-wheel trucks stretching from New York to Bangkok and back. By 2021, the annual total is predicted to surpass 57 million tons.

    The explosion of e-waste highlights its dual (and dueling) identities as both environmental scourge and potential economic resource. Though often laced with lead, mercury or other toxic substances, laptops and phones also contain valuable elements like gold, silver and copper. Yet barely 20 percent of the world’s e-waste is collected and delivered to formal recyclers. The fate of the rest is largely unknown. Only 41 nations compile e-waste statistics, and their partial data can’t keep up with the expansion of electronic devices into so many consumer categories — toys and toilets, watches and refrigerators. In the United States, which generated an estimated 6.9 million tons of e-waste in 2016 (42 pounds per person), most e-waste probably goes straight into the trash. By one account, e-waste makes up just 2 percent of the total volume in American landfills — but more than two-thirds of heavy metals.

    Despite being the world’s second-largest producer — China recently claimed the top spot — the United States is the only developed country that hasn’t ratified the Basel Convention on hazardous waste, a treaty that restricts the exports of e-waste and that has the support of 186 parties. Moreover, the United States has no national law for managing e-waste, leaving the issue to the states. (Fifteen states still have no e-waste legislation in effect.) The European Union, by contrast, has some of the toughest enforcement of e-waste laws in the world, banning exports to developing countries and compelling manufacturers to help fund recycling. Europe’s recycling rates for electronics — around 35 percent overall — are much higher than the American rate. “The U.S. has always been the elephant in room that nobody wants to talk about,” says Deepali Sinha Khetriwal, a Mumbai-based research associate at the United Nations University. “Until it decides to play a part, we can’t really solve the problem of e-waste shipments.”

    1. Hi KGB Trumpster,

      Which rises the question again, “How did America get in this F’n mess?”

      Oh now I remember, America has morons on it’s team.

      You know it’s not easy keeping a sense of humor in these racist power grabbing times. Thanks for the good laugh.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt87mXL_ftg
      .

    2. If Trump isn’t a Putin puppet then in what ways would a puppet look any different? (Maybe not quite as fat, but after that I can’t think of much.)

  40. WARNING: Adult material follows. If you are not a realist and refuse to learn simple addition do not listen to the following PhD lecture from Kings College. This is not typical parlor talk about EV’s, windmills and PV nor is it for armchair environmentalists.
    Heading for extinction using only four feedbacks of the more than 60 to show the Earth moving to a warm world regime. How protests actually change things (in countries that still resemble a democratic form).

    Climate Change – Why we are heading for extinction and what to do about it
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgFc4Zhvjtg

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