OPEC Charts

The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for August 2016. All charts are through August 2016.

opec-14

OPEC crude only production reached 33,237,000 barrels per day in August. This includes Gabon.

secondary-sources

algeria

Algeria is in slow decline.

angola

Angola seems to be holding steady.

ecuador

Ecuador was sharply down in August but seems to be holding steady for the last two years.

gabon

Gabon has been added to OPEC but their production is so low it will have little effect one way or the other.

indonesia

Indonesia will also not affect OPEC production in a big way one way or the other.

iran

Iran’s increase since sanctions were lifted has slowed to a crawl. There are other problems on the horizon for Iran. They are talking about changing all their oil field contracts to “buy back” contracts. That is they want the option to nationalize all everything. This will likely cause a mass exodus of foreign oil companies from Iran and hit their production considerably.

iraq

I wrote, two months ago, that Iraq had peaked, at least for the next several years. I see no need to change that opinion now.

kuwait

Kuwait has recovered from the problems they had in April. I expect their production to flatten out here with a slight decline over the next few years.

libya

Libya’s problems continue, and will likely continue for a long while yet.

nigeria

Nigeria’s problems continue and shows little signs of improving.

qatar

Qatar’s oil production seems to have bottomed out since late 2014.

saudi-arabia

Saudi Arabia is, in my opinion, producing flat out and has been for several years now.

uae

The United Arab Emirates had some problems earlier this year but they seem to have recovered. I think they will hold production steady for a while now.

venezuela

Venezuela’s oil production is still dropping but the decline seems to be slowing. Venezuela has very serious economic problems. They are nearing the “failed state” status.

world-oil-supply

 

38 Responses to OPEC Charts

  1. All this oil … tens of billions of barrels … all of it non-renewable, never to be seen- or made use of again … for a hundred million or more years, for all practical purpose, ever!

    … the greatest bulk of it put into cars where it is wasted, by people driving aimlessly in circles from gas station to gas station for entertainment purposes only … By way of this idiocy we destroy ourselves and our futures. We aren’t doomed, we are damned.

    • We aren’t doomed, we are damned.

      Doomed, perhaps. Damned, I seriously doubt that. 😉

    • Mike, Sydney says:

      The big mistake most energy illiterates make is to talk about their cars when the peak oil subject comes up. Most hope or assume that another form of fuel or energy will power their ride post oil.

      Peak oil is not just about cars. Oil is the reason why our civilization exists in its current form. Oil is why we have 7 billion people on this planet. Oil is about agriculture and food supply, it is about distribution of everything we buy and not least it is about the raw materials for many if not most of our goods. It is about almost every economic and social transaction that takes place.

      When oil becomes expensive our economies and societies will implode, jobs and goods imported from far away will disappear. This will apply worldwide. The citizens of Addis Ababa are just as dependent as the ones in Amsterdam or Atlanta.

      We have exhausted most of our soils and lost the skill to eke out a living from Mother Nature without fertilizers and machines. Could it be that the least “developed” countries will lead post oil because our “developed” nations are the least able to cope without oil?

      • Mike, that’s exactly what I have been trying to tell folks for years. Most just don’t want to believe it. They see solar, wind and other such things as keeping BAU going for awhile.

        Why don’t you post over on the post section. We get a lot more traffic over there.

        Peak Oil Barrel

      • Argh says:

        Big mistake thinking that this crisis will not arrive with plenty of time to avoid it. Oil prices will rise slowly over time. However we create energy, we will find a way to pay for locomotion or create food.

        Oil is down 50% This is because of new sources of supply combined with continuing energy efficiency improvement. Doomed or damned, don’t hold your breath.

        I am sure you will find something else -perhaps global warming, now climate change, to scare people with.

        • Don Wharton says:

          Argh. Your comment suggests that you are a militantly ignorant troll. 97% of the competent climatologists fully support the IPCC global warming summary model. There is no reasonable doubt about this science. In my opinion there has been a revolution in drilling technology over recent years. However, the measured rate of additional improvement is now very modest as measured by the US EIA. Most of the recent improvement is explained by the discovery and exploitation of sweet spots which are being rapidly drained. For an objective look at prospects going forward for oil and gas you should read David Hughes’ Drilling Deeper report. This is an exhaustive analysis based on a data base of all existing US oil and gas wells. It impressively documents a future of peak oil and gas based on fully exploiting fracking technology. I don’t see any magical technology that will get the projected fossil fuel resources required for business as usual. It is just not there.

      • Nick G says:

        Oil is the reason why our civilization exists in its current form.

        Not really. There’s nothing magical about oil. 100 years ago civilization was pretty recognizable, and it didn’t require oil.

        Oil is about agriculture and food supply

        For the moment. Batteries and synthetic fuel can move tractors. Electricity (from many sources) can create fertilizer.

        it is about distribution of everything we buy

        Rail works awfully well.

        is about the raw materials for many if not most of our goods.

        Meh. It produces some of our raw materials. But plastic can be produced from a lot of different hydrocarbons, and it’s production doesn’ necessarilly create CO2, so we could produce plastic from coal for centuries. That’s plenty of time for a smooth transition.

    • Watcher says:

      I generally spend my days driving from one gas station to another for entertainment. Everyone I know does this.

    • Johnny Honda says:

      @ Steve from Vaginia: Did you ever consider that some People have to drive to *work* and *produce* so that you can sit around and swing your testicles and so that your mommy can prepare your lunch and dinner?
      So when you sit around the whole day you can think what happens in 300 years, when most of the oil and gas has been used up. We don’t have time for that, but we are sure that People will find a solution.

      • Rubber Johnny says:

        One or the solution will be not driving to work and wasting time in gridlock so we can have more time to swing our balls be ‘productive’ on our own and our real community’s terms. Real community that includes momma…

        Rubber Johnny

    • Brad Busch says:

      Damned is such a harsh word, surely there is a solution in physics, but until that comes along, I will prove that it is impossible to know our imminent doom looms just past 2017:

      The uncertainty in all its glory!

  2. Argh says:

    Oil will get more expensive, some day slowly. Right now the cost is down (50%!!!) because of new sources and efficiency improvements. I think that those who predict doom will be disappointed.

    • SRSrocco says:

      Argh,

      The falling EROI destroys your lousy assumption in spades.

      Your time might be better spent burning books or working on one of the dozen worthless Presidential campaigns.

      Steve

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  4. RSAldeen says:

    Oil is very precious raw material, our demand for oil increases day after day, year after year and century after another. The search and use other sources such as atomic, wind, tide, solar, geothermal and others will continue but the prospects / trend to keep on using oil as a main source of energy still quite high and will continue with time due to the following reasons:
    – Worldwide population trend is going up drastically. (Main factor).
    – Oil as a source of energy still quite cheap in comparison with other sources.
    – It may be easy to apply the new technology in certain fields but not for all fields.
    – Oil proofs to be available all over the world and at different levels, hence oil production cost will suit all the times and condition worldwide but not for all the countries.
    – Oil is quite important as a raw material for petrochemical products, and our needs for plastic, paints and other products increases day after day drastically.
    – Oil life will continue for more than few centuries to come if not for ever and playing with its prices is subject to market condition, political matters, and other technical issues.

  5. Thanks for the graphs. Saudi Arabia may be ramping up production ahead of the air-conditioning season. Around 600 kb/d are needed in the hottest month.

    It is unbelievable what misinformation has been spread by the media. I attended a public forum of the Australian Energy Council and one participant thought that OPEC had increased oil production. My presentation on the need to replace oil by natural gas as transport fuel (instead of exporting it as LNG) was met with silence and did not spark a debate. Another participant was running away when he heard the word peak oil.

    • Greg Surgener says:

      Matt,

      Im lost by ur comments. 1st of all the graphs clearly show that Opec has increased production by 2+m/d in the last year.

      2ndly, Saudi’s oil output charts above are for just Oil not NG. Ive never been there, are you suggesting they run generators from oil for electricity and subsequent air conditioning. Why wouldnt they run thier power plants on Natural Gas? Please educate me.

      No doubt that investor sentiment and market makers are playing a significant role in price decline, as opossed to actual supply/demand issues. How do you find out how much the Opec nations have sold oil short in the various markets. Not a bad deal for them, if they can lay rigs down World wide and make the money in the commodity markets while doing so. But prices can only slide so far and for so long before that game is up. It seems like if short selling or hedging slows, buyers will outweigh sellers and the price should rise soon

      Your thoughts?

      Greg

      • Greg, Saudi Arabia is very short of natural gas and have been for several years now. They would love to run all their power plants and desal plants on natural gas if they just had enough of it. They don’t. They do burn a lot of natural gas but their supply is far short of what they need.

        • Nick G says:

          Ron,

          As best I can tell, KSA is short of NG because they’ve fixed the price at a very low level to subsidize domestic companies that use NG.

          What have you seen about that?

  6. eclypse says:

    don’t worry oil is well
    ( all is well )

  7. Greg Surgener says:

    Ahhh, I see. Thank you for the education. Is it true they could sell 12-13 m a day if they wanted to, and if so is that sustainable?

    Greg

    • Well they could probably sell that much oil if they could produce that much oil. But they can’t. Saudi is producing flat out right now just like every other OPEC country except Iran. Sanctions are holding Iran back. Political violence is holding Libya back but they are still producing every barrel they can. It’s just that violence keeps them from producing any more.

  8. Keith says:

    A few comments:

    Re Saudi, yes their domestic usage of oil is around 3 M bopd (they produced 10.5 M in June but exported around 7 M bopd). Their refinery capacity is increasing but a large amount is burnt for electricity generation. They have delays in the development of some large gas fields, and so gas supply is behind the demand curve. Various service companies such as Baker Hughes, Halliburton and Schlumberger have been demonstrating unconventional gas production in Saudi as a response.

    Re Dan Wharton and the 97% of climate scientists, this has been shown to be a doubtful number over and again. It comes from a paper by John Cook et al where they claimed to estimate the views in over 12000 papers. See Richard TOl for an alternative view http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/26/richard-tols-excellent-summary-of-the-flaws-in-cook-et-al-2013-the-infamous-97-consensus-paper/

    Most polls show a split of about 60 40 in terms of views on climate science, rather than 97 3 despite what POTUS may have tweeted.

    Further re climate, most agree CO2 is a greenhouse gas but estimates of the temperature change caused by a doubling of its concentration have been coming down over the last 15 years. In other words, it may not warrant the type of policy response that is being promoted at present.
    http://climateaudit.org/2014/09/24/the-implications-for-climate-sensitivity-of-ar5-forcing-and-heat-uptake-estimates-2/

    Meanwhile the IPCC projections continue with climate sensitivity estimates of 3 to 6 degrees when the more recent estimates of ECS and TRC are consistently under 2 degrees. So contrary to what is alleged above, there is lots of doubt about the IPCC models. The latter point comes from peer reviewed science, by, among others, Nic Lewis.

    • SRSrocco says:

      Keith,

      What a breath of fresh air to read your comments. Even though what you wrote (for the most part) is completely worthless… it’s nice to know wisdom isn’t based on a high IQ level.

      Steve

  9. Keith says:

    Another point of interest is the relative steadiness of Venezuelan production. Allegedly various of the empresas mixtas (Joint Ventures between PDVSA and International Oil Co.’s) are not proportionally funded by PDVSA as they should be. As a result production is down or is not reaching targets. Apparently contractor companies will not accept new contracts from PDVSA unless they set up an escrow account or other arrangement that guarantees payment in foreign currency. It is surprising therefore that Venezuelan production shows a slight rise since December.

  10. Hoosen says:

    30 years from now everyone will pay through their noses. 60 years time there would be nothing left to pay for. Oil, gas, coal depleted. Without these solar power equipment will fall into the dust. Without pharmaceuticals millions will perish. Only the rural fit will survive. That year is 2075.

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  12. Kurtk says:

    The death of oil has been greatly exaggerated. Perhaps it’s no surprise that so many here worry about doom and gloom post fossil fuel depletion, but it would be wise to (1) consider that this fear has been foisted since the 1970’s over & over yet no tipping point is in site & (2) new technology is preventing any supply concern for many years to come as we are in the early innings of fracking and horizontal drilling… Should petroleum supplies run deficits to demand in the future causing prices to rise, then the new production technologies exploited by the US and Canada will explode onto the scene in many more countries. Prices indicate that there is NO shortage of food crops or Oil & Nat Gas, despite Governments best efforts to limit production. OPEC & Russia are the ones in real trouble here and risk massive social unrest or a financial panic. The Saudis are the followers not the leaders in the current price collapse – their production didn’t rise until after Oil bottomed near $40 in January 2015; & with 90% of their Government revenue coming from Oil and world demand growing, they had no choice but to elevate production to make up some of the shortfall as they pay off the radical tribes within their borders to hang onto power.

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