EIA Quarterly Crude + Condensate Production Data

The EIA publishes all kinds of energy production data but I collect and chart only Crude + Condensate data. But that comes in three flavors, monthly, quarterly and yearly. I decided to chart the quarterly data and see if that looks any clearer than the monthly data.

Quarterly C+C production in kb/d. The last quarter, 3rd, ends September 2013.

World

World C+C production has increased 2 million barrels per day since the 2nd quarter of 05. Who were the big gainers that caused this 2 million barrel per day increase?

World Less USA

Turns out it was all USA.

Non-OPEC is up about 1.5 million barrels per day since the second quarter of 2005.

Non-OPEC

However Non-OPEC less USA is down about 750 kb/d since 2005 and down 1.25 million barrels per day since peaking in the last quarter of 2010.

Non-OPEC Less USA

World crude oil production outside the USA has clearly peaked. It is only the shale oil bubble that is keeping peak oil from being obvious to the rest of the world.

The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review is out with the US production figures through December. This enabled me to plot the US quarterly production through the last quarter of 2013 in kb/d.

United States

This data enabled me to average US production for the entire year of 2013. That figure turned out to be 7,492,583 barrels per day, subject to revision of course. That turned out to be 263 kb/d below what AEO 2014 had predicted.

AEO 2014

This means that the prediction above made by the EIA’s AEO 2014 is already over a quarter of a million barrels per day below prediction.

Another chart of interest would be OPEC C+C. This chart is though the 4th quarter of 2013, that is through December 2013.

OPEC C+C

Opec C+C in the 4th quarter of 2013 averaged 31,479 kb/d. That is 1,700 bp/d below the peak which was the second quarter of 2012 which averaged 33,179 kb/d.

All OPEC data through the 3rd quarter of 2013 is from the EIA. The last quarter of data was taken from the OPEC MOMR then I added 1.9 mb/d of condensate which is about the OPEC average for condensate production. Or more correctly 1.9 mb/d is the approximate difference between the EIA’s C+C data and OPCE MOMR’s Crude Only data for the last couple of years.

Switching gears to Weekly Production, will the trend continue? The last data point is for week ending January 24th. The data is kb/d.

Weekly C+C

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250 Responses to EIA Quarterly Crude + Condensate Production Data

  1. aws. says:

    EIA : Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

    for week ending January 31, 2014 | Released: February 6, 2014 at 10:30 a.m.

  2. aws. says:

    Cochin pipeline not shut down

    Aitkin Independent Age (Minnesota), Posted: Thursday, February 6, 2014 5:00 am

    Hoisted from the comments…

    This is reporting? It’s a direct copy of a Kinder-Morgan press release for PR purposes:

    http://www.kindermorgan.com/news/0131CochinStatement.pdf

    – and in the interests of journalistic integrity it should be labeled as such.

    Still, one can extrapolate out the consequences of putting the proposed Keystone XL pipeline — and America — at the mercy of Canadian resources. The risks of striving for “energy independence” by relying on the goodness of our neighbors to the north show that with the Cochin line as well as with the Keystone fiasco, the U.S. is still dependent on another land.

    As was said over 100 years ago by a noted member of the royal empire: “Nations have no friends, only interests”. It is always prudent to look after ourselves first.

  3. aws. says:

    Pipeline operator: Don’t blame us

    By Jan Shepel, Wisconsin State Farmer, Feb. 3, 2014 | MADISON

    A pipeline company, which operates a dedicated conduit for propane from the production fields in Canada, wants the public to understand that their pipeline is open and operational — and that it is not to blame for the current propane situation.

    Kinder Morgan, the company that owns and operates the Cochin pipeline wants the public to know that it is fully operational and is in fact being underutilized.

    After Wisconsin State Farmer published a story on the propane shortage last week, we were contacted by the firm, which operates the shipping conduit for propane and other products.

    A spokeswoman, Melissa Ruiz, said the company didn’t want the story to be that the pipeline is not operational. She said they wanted to set the record straight and contradict the many mentions of the pipeline in the press.

    The Cochin pipeline is a 1,900-mile pipeline (12-inch diameter) between Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta and Windsor, Ontario with five U.S. terminals — in Carrington, ND, Benson and Mankato in MN, New Hampton, IA and Milford, IN.

    Ruiz explained that the pipeline transports propane and other products for third-party shippers-customers. With an estimated capacity of 50,000 barrels per day, it is not being contracted to its fullest capacity, she said.

    The story may have gotten started because the pipeline was down for a short time this fall.

    There was an “outage” of the Cochin pipeline, she said, from Nov. 27-Dec. 17, but it was planned and all the customers who use it were aware it would be happening. The pipeline was back in full operation on Dec. 18, she added.

    I wonder why the KM spokesperson neglected to mention this?

    The Midwest will also need to prepare for the coming reversal [2014] of Kinder Morgan’s Cochin Pipeline, which delivers HGL from Canada to the upper Midwest. Kinder Morgan plans to reverse the flow to deliver light condensate to Canada. This reversal will change supply dynamics in the Midwest.

    • aws. says:

      Reading EIA’s TWIP from a couple of week’s ago I kind of assumed that the maintenance shutdown of the Cochin pipeline had an indirect affect on propane supply into Eastern Canada. I was mistaken, seems it had a direct affect on supply.

      The Cochin pipeline is a 1,900-mile pipeline (12-inch diameter) between Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta and Windsor, Ontario

      The reversal of Cochin this year might have quite the impact on households in Eastern Canada next winter.

      If only people realized that the low EROI Tar Sands are going to suck resources to it, and away from them. The full picture will ultimately show that scraping the barrel to produce low EROI bitumen won’t bring a windfall to Canada’s citizens… more likely it will probably leave them poorer financially when all is said and done.

    • Watcher says:

      Condensate dilutes the tar sands low API oil and raises the API to refinery benign levels. There is also a regulatory benefit of border traverse (hmm, forgot the details).

      Note this also will look like “petroleum product exports”, even though it will re-enter, post dilution.

    • Dennis Coyne says:

      Hi aws,

      Are you interested in doing something along the lines of the old TOD drumbeat, maybe once or twice a week? I think if you click on my name you can get my e-mail

  4. Watcher says:

    Recent presentation from Carrizo — a shale producer.

    http://www.crzo.net/uploads/Analyst%20Day%201-28-2014%20%28MASTER%29_v5.pdf

    Page about 10 is talk of lateral spacing in the Eagleford — 500 ft reducing to 320 ft.

    Involvement in Niobara, Marcellus and Utica, see page 17.

    The seem to plan a 3 rig year in 2014 in the Eagleford and can get 20K bpd with that.

    It’s a presentation to analysts and the hype is thick.

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