August 2016 – Page 2 – Peak Oil Barrel

Open Thread Non-Petroleum-Aug 15, 2016

08/15/201608/15/2016 D Coyne 307 Comments

This thread is for comments not directly related to oil and natural gas production.

Petroleum Open Thread August 4, 2016

08/05/201608/06/2016 D Coyne 246 Comments

Comments and news about oil and natural gas.

World C+C using EIA data, but substituting the Russian Ministry of Energy Data for Russia shown in the chart below. The monthly peak was 81, 047 kb/d in Nov 2015. The centered 12 month running average is also shown with a peak at 80,642 kb/d in Sept 2015. The annual decline rate since the Nov 2015 peak has been 4.2% per year or about 3.4 Mb/d over a 12 month period if the rate does not change before Nov 2016. That would imply 77.6 Mb/d by Nov 2016.

Output was 79,784 kb/d in April 2016, I believe the decline rate will decrease by Oct and output will be around 78.5 +/- 0.5 Mb/d in Nov 2016, decline will continue into 2017 and the rate of decline may reach zero some time in 2017.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.cfm

http://minenergo.gov.ru/en/activity/statistic

Worldcc/

Climate Change with 920 billion metric tonnes of carbon emissions

08/05/201608/05/2016 D Coyne 405 Comments

By Dennis Coyne

Note that non-Petroleum comments should mostly be in this thread.

A separate petroleum thread will be posted soon.

I created an optimistic scenario for future emissions based on low population growth (UN low fertility scenario) and energy intensity of real GDP that decreases by 0.93% until 2050 and then the rate of decrease gradually falls to 0.13% by 2100, other energy demand assumptions are similar to my previous high demand scenario in an earlier post (Energy Transition).

It is assumed that non-fossil fuel energy supply increases enough to satisfy demand until 2032 when the growth rate of non-fossil fuel energy(NFFE) supply has reached 5% per year. From that point the NFFE supply continues to increase at 5% per year and demand for fossil fuels is reduced as NFFE replaces fossil fuels. I assume for simplicity that any extra NFFE (that is greater than NFFE demand) replaces coal first, then oil, and finally natural gas until fossil fuel energy demand is zero in 2058.

The scenario is too optimistic because there will be some uses of fossil fuel which will be difficult or impossible to reduce completely by 2058.
The fossil fuel emissions scenario is shown in the chart that follows and can be downloaded at the link below.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/76hasvu73fmbv07/RCPMDB.SCEN?dl=0

CC/